While it is way too early to read too much into the results of this tourney, the Santa Barbara Invite will provide an early look at several teams who have a legitimate shot at making the trip to this year's College Championships. Here's the down and dirty overview of this weekend's tourney.
POOL A
UC Santa Barbara / California / Cal Poly SLO / USC-B
The Burning Skirts are the overwhelming favorite in this pool but they encounter some difficulties with the Pie Queens. At present, it's a bit unclear where Berkeley stands in the big picture and this tourney should provide a glimpse into where they stand. Cree Howard is one of the top receivers in the country, but the real key to their success lies in the performance of their handlers. Cal picked up Anna Mebust from Claremont who should be an immediate help to their handling corps.
Cal Poly SLO is going to be one of those mystery teams that will give teams some problems, especially early in the season. There is certainly a potential for an upset here, though a 9 seed trumping an 8 doesn't qualify as much of an upset. Still, this is a bit of a David vs. Goliath game in terms of what their programs have done in the past and a SLO Motion win would definitely be a big step upward for their program. With the weather forecasting rain (you can basically count on rain for this tourney), the potential for an upset is magnified.
USC-B is PINK awesomeness.
POOL B
USC / Arizona / UC Santa Cruz / Cal-B
As my typical M.O. is not to forecast my team's performance, I'll refrain from commenting on our chances. I will instead note that the team is excited about the new position of being a high seed and looking forward to the challenge of higher expectations.
Arizona vs. UC Santa Cruz is one of the other really interesting matchups on Saturday. UC Santa Cruz is a team that is trending upwards and could make some noise after rebuilding last year. Lillian Berla is no longer there, but her absence should provide the opportunity for a new crop of players to step up. Their semifinals appearance at Sean Ryan was a bit surprising to some, but their potential was pretty clear to me at last year's Stanford Qualifier.
Arizona resembles UC Santa Cruz last year as they are in a bit of a rebuilding phase. I think they are starting with a stronger base than Sol had last year, but one factor that could weigh heavily in the outcome is how many players they are able to bring to Santa Barbara. They will likely rely heavily on Caitlin Wright, but they'll need other players to be consistent threats to do well this weekend.
I don't have much to say about the other B teams, but it will be interesting to see who ends up as the top B team at this tourney. I wonder if anyone has studied to what extent the strength of a B team corresponds with the success of their A team. It seems obvious to say that this is certainly the case, but I'm not convinced. I think B teams vary greatly, ranging from true feeder teams that will move up to the A team to teams that are mainly comprised of lower-commitment players or those who are less athletically-talented. Of course, most B teams have a combination of those elements but I think it's still safe to say that it ranges greatly.
POOL C
UCLA / UC San Diego / UC Irvine / Stanford-B
I think this pool will be the most straightforward one and the possibility of an upset is fairly remote. UCLA is rumored to have lost Cailey Marsh for the quarter. If this is indeed the case, it will be interesting to see who steps up as their primary throwers.
With the announcement that the SW is getting 4 bids to Columbus, UCSD and Claremont have much better odds of qualifying for Nationals. As such, I suspect that UCSD will continue to develop their young players as they will need them to contend later in the season. More than any of the other teams at the SB Invite, I think you can pay the least attention to the scores of their games.
UC Irvine is probably the squirreliest team in the Southwest and Iris Leung deserves some attention as a candidate for the Southwest All-Region team. With so many good players in the region, the contending teams will command most of the attention and votes, but Iris would likely be on every starting line in the region. I'd love to see the UPA or someone else develop a 2nd and 3rd All-Region team to spotlight players and teams that don't receive as much attention.
POOL D
Claremont / Stanford / UC Davis / UCLA-B
I would have seeded Stanford above Claremont, but it really doesn't matter much. I'm guessing Claremont's win over UCSB at Sean Ryan had something to do with this. Regardless, their game against Superfly gives Claremont a chance to prove to outsiders whether they are for real or not. Of all the pool games, this is the game that I'd want to watch most.
UC Davis is a potentially dangerous team and this year looks to be a big bounce-back year after being down last year. I think the ground between them and the top two seeds is way too big this early in the season. They will benefit greatly from being in the Pres Day field and their future looks bright.
