I was hoping to finish off my Pres Day thoughts today but it looks like I'll have to add another post or simply revise this one later. My apologies to Cornell, Long Beach, UC-Davis and Sonoma State... I'll get to you soon.
UC SAN DIEGO - One of the biggest questions coming into this season was how UCSD was going to look coming off of their one-year suspension. I had speculated that the fight for the four Southwest bids was primarily a battle between four teams - UCSB, UCLA, USC and Colorado. At Pres Day, the Psychos made it clear that the Southwest is going to be at least a five team race.
I don't know much about their depth behind Jennifer Jacobson (Sir Robin), Andrea Cardenas (Ferris), Amy Chang (Meeko) and Molica Anderson (Guano), but a win over Carleton in pool play and a decisive victory over Colorado is no accident. I'm not sure if their lopsided losses to the upper echelon teams (Stanford, Ottawa, Oregon, UCSB) is a result of opening up their rotation early or a true indicator of their relative strength. I do know that it is dangerous to underestimate a program like UC San Diego. Great programs like UCSD, Carleton and Stanford have the knowhow to develop their young players quickly and peak at the right time. It's like it's in their DNA... it's like they can simply manufacture good player after good player and send them straight from the assembly line to the Ultimate field. It's like they've got a secret... they've been hiding... under their skin...
Domo arigato, UC Psycho-boto!
COLORADO - Kali seems to be approaching the season in similar fashion to British Columbia. They are going to be very good but in the meantime, they are going to have some ups and downs as they develop their younger players. Apparently, Brenna Hokanson is not in school right now which definitely hurts them. They still have the Sisters Waugh and Courtney Verhaalen but they could definitely use an in-your-face type of thrower like Brenna. Of course, everyone could use one of those.
Speaking of Courtney, I think she has clearly emerged as Kali's top player. I love the fire and enthusiasm she brings to the field; she is fun to watch and her enjoyment of the game is infectious. I think Kali's success this season depends more on her than any other player. At last year's Regionals, our first half was really tight and Kali got a critical break on a goal by Verhaalen. She emphasized the importance of that point with a spirited spike (I'm personally in favor of certain types of spikes, but that's another discussion). That moment sucked the air out of us and they went on a big run to blow open the game. I like a number of their other players, but Courtney is the kind of player that can elevate an entire team.
We played Colorado on Sunday, and I was pretty happy with how we handled the game. We saw this as a dangerous game but approached it with the mindset that it was a game that we should win. It's a new position for the Hellions to be in, and we are steadily improving our mental game and bringing more consistency to every point.
The play was a bit sloppy on both sides, but some of this was due to the increased intensity on defense. Both teams wanted to get into the pre-quarters and it showed. Our only true rookie on the A team (T-Stamp) stepped it up in this game, tying Lindsey Cross with four goals. The only down note in an otherwise fun game was that Verhaalen and Trouble (Alison Wilber?) both went down with injuries late in the game. Fortunately, it sounds like neither was that serious.
Though their pool game doesn't necessarily reflect it, the difference between Kali and UCSD is pretty close. Aside from the players I've already mentioned, Christina Reams (Bambi) and Hanae Isobe will be critical players in Colorado's hopes for a bid to Columbus.
ARIZONA - I've been a big fan of Jodi McCloskey since I started coaching USC, and this year provides her with an opportunity to step up and assume a more visible profile. Scorch was a considerably stronger team last year, but they have a significantly better chance of qualifying for Nationals this year. Timing is key.
After losing key handlers like Julia Tenen, Scorch is currently developing their handling line which is led by Jen Pashley. Scorch's hopes this year are directly tied to how their young handlers perform. In the games that I've seen them play, the outcome of the game was a direct reflection of the play from the handlers.
Jeff Grobe (Barrio) has joined Todd Shipman on the coaching staff which certainly helps Scorch. I have been very impressed with their ability to stay competitive in what appeared to be a rebuilding year. At Pres Day, they notched an impressive win over Northeastern, lost on DGP to UBC and kept it fairly tight against Stanford and UCLA.
Our Monday game against Scorch isn't worth discussing as I know that they are a stronger team than the result would suggest. I would rank them a slight step below UCSD and Colorado in the region, but they are capable of taking out any of the teams ahead of them except UCSB.
ILLINOIS
Five Things I Love About Illinois
1. Tania Reitz - Yeah, she is a great athlete, but she is also one of those players that looks really smooth on the field. Of the top players I've seen, Tory Hislop and Georgia Bosscher are two others that have that same quality.
2. Joann Wong - She writes the blog for Menace and a voice like hers is really important for the continued growth of the women's division. She may sound at times like an eight-year old, but make no doubt about it, the content on her blog is both sincere and substantive.
3. Their Athleticism - Reitz is easy to notice but she is just one of many great athletes on this team. I spoke with players from both Ottawa and Oregon and the general sentiment was that Illinois was a much better team than you would think from the results. We won by seven, but I would generally agree. I won't mention what they are but I think they have a couple of big flaws that top-tier teams can take advantage of, but these are easily fixable. As they are now, they should be able to grab the 2nd bid from the Great Lakes region behind Michigan, but if they can address these flaws, they have the potential to be a quarterfinals team in Columbus.
4. The Jerseys - Those are some pretty sweet looking threads. I go back and forth about wearing official school logos, but it really works for Illinois. Despite the fact that they share the same colors as UVA, I really like how the orange, blue and white work together. On a side note, here's a shout out to the William and Mary women for beating down UVA at the Hellfish Bonanza.
5. Winning Pool J - This was easily the toughest of the bottom pools, pitting three evenly-matched teams (Texas and Northeastern) that may not get the attention of the top programs but are all very good programs. As I've mentioned before, Pool C was the toughest of the first day pools and it definitely took a toll on Menace. Bouncing back mid-tourney is always an impressive feat, and they were one point away from making it to the quarterfinals.
NORTHEASTERN - I didn't get to see the Valkyries play, but they are a quality team for certain. Jason Adams and Kayla Burnim helm this young program who are led on the field by Courtney Moores and Stephanie Barker. I'm sure that they were hoping to perform better at Pres Day, but considering that they get a later jump on the season than the West Coast teams, they strung together a number of good results (two wins over Texas, tight games against Colorado, Arizona, Illinois and UCLA).
The Valkyries should easily qualify out of the New England region, but they are aiming for something higher this year. After a surprising 9th place finish at the College Championships last year, Northeastern returns a lot of its squad and is hoping that their Pres Day experience and an appearance at Centex will give them more big-game experience to improve on last year's finish.
CLAREMONT - I have written a decent amount about the Greenshirts and I can't really shed much light on their performance at Pres Day since the one time I saw them was when I was passing them in the parking lot on Sunday. One thing that should be known is that Claremont hosted a lot of teams on Sunday night when the tourney had to relocate to San Bernardino. Maybe it is something that others see as no big deal, but it is really great to see the Ultimate community take care of each other in ways like this. Traveling to tourneys is only getting more expensive and when teams extend themselves to other teams in seemingly small ways, it goes a long way to promote bonding and growth in the community at large.
TEXAS - I was hoping to see Melee play, but Pool D was located somewhere else that was essentially the same as being in Texas. With Gina Phillips and Michelle Ng gone, Stephanie Redfern and Rebecca Shelton emerge as two of their go-to players. They had a number of close losses, including two DGP defeats to Cornell and Illinois and a two point loss to Berkeley.
I don't know what the South picture is like this year but knowing that there are two bids certainly helps that region immensely. I'd imagine that the usual suspects will be in contention (Truman State, Wash U., Vanderbilt) but Texas remains the powerhouse program in the South. I personally have favored a minimum of two bids per region and I think it is great that the UPA has made this change. I have a lot of thoughts about the upcoming changes in store for the college division so I'll save them for later.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
President's Day - Part One
Before I dive into the results of this past weekend, I wanted to mention a couple of things.
1) I am aiming to post a blog entry every Friday until the week after Nationals. I hope that writing more regularly will help develop more interest and provoke more discussion about the women's division.
2) I have no idea who, if anyone, has been reading my blog, but I hope that it is clear that my thoughts are my own and I will be interweaving a mix of objective assessments, subjective judgments and the occasional complete fabrication that is solely for entertainment purposes. I leave it to the reader to decipher fact, fiction and absurdity, and to be understanding when I write something completely inane (my wife hears me say something stupid every day so think about how hard her life is).
3) On a related note, though I coach the USC Hellions, my thoughts do not reflect those of the team. Let me clarify that. Anything that you find intelligent or correct is something you can attribute to the Hellions. Anything that you find appalling or loathsome, the Hellions have nothing do with it.
4) UCSD and the other Pres Day organizers are to be highly commended for running a superb tourney. Loryn Kanemaru, Sarah McNees, Michelle Ng, and the entire UC San Diego team deserve a ton of credit for a great weekend. They had to contend with difficult weather issues and a number of logistical challenges. Despite this, their communication with teams was excellent, they were able to post scores promptly, and they made the difficult but correct decision to move the tourney to San Bernardino on Monday.
Here's one example of a little detail that makes a big difference. When we were out at one of the satellite fields on Sunday, there was a UCSD-B player there to make sure that teams were adhering to the schedule and communicate with home base (report scores and any potential delays). This was all the more remarkable because there was only one field there. After we finished our game against Colorado, we had to rush to the main fields to play our pre-quarters game, but we didn't have to worry about getting assessed points or causing any confusion because they had someone at our field. Being that person at the satellite field is a pretty dull and thankless job, but it makes a big difference in how smoothly a tournament is run.
Make no doubt about it. The Pres Day organizers have set a higher bar for how the elite tourneys should be run. If other attending teams disagree, I'd love to hear their thoughts.
5) There is a great deal of parity this year in the women's division. I think UCSB and Oregon might be emerging as the frontrunners but the separation between them and the rest of the top 8-10 (Ottawa, Stanford, Washington, Wisconsin, British Columbia, Michigan and arguably USC, Cal, Carleton and UCLA) is very thin.
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And now, here are my thoughts on some of the teams that I saw at Pres Day (mostly in order of how I'll be ranking them on my next NUMP ballot).
TIER ONE - UCSB, OREGON, OTTAWA, STANFORD, BRITISH COLUMBIA
UC SANTA BARBARA - I went back and forth between UCSB and Oregon for the number one spot. Some might think this is a no-brainer since the Burning Skirts beat Fugue in the Pres Day finals, but I'm not basing my decision on that. I think Fugue actually has a little more talent and depth than UCSB does, but I'm splitting hairs there. For me, it simply boils down to the amount of big game experience on the two squads. Oregon does have a number of Junior Worlds players (McDowell, Zahniser, Suver) and they pulled out the DGP win over Stanford at Regionals last year. On the flip side, the Burning Skirts have been in the Collegiate finals the past two years and they return almost everyone from last year's run. Beyond that, UCSB blitzed through the Pres Day field without anyone scoring more than five points on them. Plus, they are doing all of this without Katie Barry. Yikes.
Though Kaela Jorgenson and Carolyn Finney are captaining the squad this year, Andrea Romano remains the de facto leader of this team. She is likely going to be their Callahan nominee and her impact on the field is well-documented. That said, I think Kaela is emerging as the player that poses the most difficult matchup problems. She is a bit more dangerous as a receiver and her throws have become lethal.
OREGON - The argument in favor of Fugue as number one has a lot of strength. They have beaten Stanford twice, UBC twice and Washington once. They have only been seriously challenged in three games -- Stanford (top 5 team), USC (feel free to disagree, but I think we're a top 10 team right now) and UCSB (numero uno). UCSB certainly benefitted from not having to play Ottawa in the semifinals, and my sense is that their finals matchup, an ugly affair in the rain, could have gone either way.
I haven't seen Washington or Wisconsin this year, so it's not exactly fair for me to write that UCSB and Oregon are much more deserving of the top two spots. Screw it, I'm going to write that anyway. UCSB AND OREGON ARE MORE DESERVING OF THE NUMBER ONE AND TWO SPOTS THAN WASHINGTON AND WISCONSIN.
I don't know how heavily you can weigh the results from the Bellingham Invite (which are difficult to access on the UPA score reporter), but Fugue beat down Element. They also proved their strength this weekend against a much more difficult field than the one at Trouble in Vegas. I am mainly being vocal about this because Fugue was ranked 7th in the last NUMP poll (I had them number one). I'm guessing that most of the voters didn't see the Bellingham results. I'll be harassing the other NUMP voters if they screw it up in the next poll.
Our game against Fugue in pool play was a ton of fun to be a part of. It reminded me of the time I got my wisdom teeth pulled out and was administered nitrous. I felt oddly queasy, deliriously entertained and by the end I wasn't sure how I got there but I definitely felt like I had gone through an out-of-body experience. It's like any other experience that is nerve-wracking while you're going through it but only induces good feelings after the fact.
The matchup was the last game of the day and both teams started in sluggish fashion. After the first five points or so, both teams stepped up their games and it turned into an entertaining slugfest with some tremendous Ds by Bailey Zahniser (please Ultimate gods, send a Junior Worlds player to USC), great cutting from Jenica Villamoor and impressive handling by Julia Sherwood, Molly Suver and Shannon McDowell.
The cap went on after we tied the game at 7s. We took the next point to go up 8-7, and they held serve to send the game to our second DGP of the day. That point was both incredibly entertaining and agonizing to watch. Miscommunication on a reset gave Fugue the disc at midfield but they couldn't capitalize. On an ensuing possession, a Fugue receiver dropped the disc in the end zone. We had a high-stall count punt into the end zone tail just out of bounds. I think both teams turned it over three or four times and players on both sides looked spent. The game winner went to the same Fugue receiver who had previously dropped it. I was obviously disappointed with the outcome of the game, but a) I was happy that the Fugue receiver got to redeem herself, and b) it was really great to see both teams elevate their games and push each other to play better.
Andrew Davis caught one of the highlights of the game when Lindsey Cross was targeted in the end zone with a low breakmark backhand. This disc was actually caught by Anne Ohliger (seen in the background) who had an equally impressive layout.
OTTAWA - I think Ottawa and Stanford could also have been easily interchangeable if not for Ottawa's 12-6 victory in power pool play. I was a little surprised that they won by such a sizable margin over an impressive Superfly squad, and unfortunately I don't have any details about that game. For those who are puzzled by the Lady Gee Gee's nine-point loss to Oregon in pool play, one of the major factors in the lopsided result is that Anne Mercier didn't play that game. I would still have picked Fugue to win the game, but I can definitely guarantee that the result would have been considerably closer with Mercier playing.
Our game against Ottawa was a weird series of runs. We opened the game with a 3-0 run only to see the Gee Gee's return with a four point run of their own. We went on a run to take half 7-6, but the momentum swung the other way when Ottawa scored five of the next six points to go up 11-8. The Hellions surged back with another 3 point run to send the game to double game point. Ottawa's big three (Mercier, Benedict and Fortin) were instrumental in moving the disc down the field and their poise was very impressive as they maintained possession of the disc for the game winning score.
I think the Lady Gee Gee's were missing Kate Crump, but even with her, depth is going to be a big question mark for them in May. They should have no problems qualifying out of the Metro East, but over the course of a tough tourney like the Collegiate Championships, they'll need to keep their big three as fresh as possible. It was definitely an issue for them last May, and I think they learned from that experience. In what I saw of their game against Illinois, they were clearly developing some of their younger players. I'll be interested to see how deep they are subbing at Centex.
STANFORD - Unfortunately, I have only seen Superfly in short spurts this year. The triumvirate of Emily Damon, Jenny Founds and Rachel Habbert are as steady as any handling corps in the game and Liz Cassel leads the cutting side. I'm curious to see who else is stepping up for Stanford. [Update: Emily Damon has been out with an elbow injury. Thanks to Ryan for the news.]
One major concern for Superfly has got to be the shift in power in their rivalry against Oregon. In a region where tiny variables could settle the difference between first in the region and not qualifying for Nationals, Superfly is developing a major mental hurdle against Fugue. Having lost to them on DGP at Regionals, they lost twice to them this past weekend. Losing again on DGP only shifts the balance further in Oregon's favor.
It is still early in the season, but unless they figure out how to produce a win over Fugue before Regionals, Stanford will not be wanting to go through them. Make no mistake about it -- these kinds of wins and losses do matter and the psychological impact should not be underestimated. On the plus side, the Stanford coaches are as well-equipped as any coaching staff to handle this challenge, and they have owned Berkeley in their two matchups this season. How Stanford matches up against Washington and UBC will be one of the major stories at the Stanford Invite.
BRITISH COLUMBIA - Don't be fooled by their poor record and lopsided losses to Oregon and Santa Barbara. The word is that they have been developing their younger players, and some ups and downs will be expected as they adjust to the post-Kira Frew era. If Regionals took place today, I would predict that Oregon and UBC would be the two teams to beat and Washington and Stanford would be battling in the game to go. Cal and Western Washington are both very solid but they are presently on the outside looking in. That's life in the Northwest.
I'm not sure if their subbing strategy changed in our pre-quarters game, but the team that played against us was every bit as good as Ottawa and Oregon. Tory Hislop played every point and I can't remember Jenny Lo taking a sub. These two contributed immensely on both sides of the disc. Their offensive game plan was based on constant disc movement and maximizing give-and-gos whenever possible. Most of their players played within themselves very well and whenever they needed a big throw, they would look to Hislop to find the weak spots in our zone.
To say the least, our loss was really difficult to take. Not only was it the third DGP loss of the weekend (our 4th of the season), we had never trailed until the final point and held an 11-8 lead. Worse for me was how much tougher each loss felt than the previous one.
I'll be ranking the Thunderbirds below Cal in the next NUMP ballot because of their head-to-head result, but I think at full strength in a winner-takes-all game, UBC is the better team right now. I don't have a sense of what UBC's depth is, and like Ottawa, this could be an issue for them at Regionals. They are certainly doing the right thing in addressing their depth concerns, but they will still need Tory Hislop and Jenny Lo fresh for their big games. Seeding is going to be crucial in the Northwest as minimizing the number of potentially grueling games is of paramount importance. Whichever team is able to keep their top line fresher for the game-to-go will have a big advantage.
TIER TWO - CAL, USC, UCLA, CARLETON
The next few teams are virtually interchangeable at this point in the season. Carleton's surprising loss to UC San Diego complicates things, and I was only able to evaluate their play in crappy conditions, but my gut tells me that they belong on this tier.
CAL - There's a decent argument for including the Pie Queens in the top tier as they have only lost to two teams this year (UCSB and Stanford). Unfortunately, they have lost in pretty convincing fashion in those four games. On the plus side, they have two quality wins against UCLA and another in their victory over UBC. I don't have details on their power pool games, so I can't really say how decisive these victories were.
Cree Howard is their most recognizable player (deservedly so), but I really like both Darragh Clancy and Lucy 'Bam Bam' Rosenbloom. They bring toughness to the Pie Queens, and they were the biggest factors in their victory over us at the SB Invite. They have a number of solid handlers, but I think a potential Achilles' Heel for them is that their handlers are susceptible to matchup problems, especially after a turnover. They can adjust to this by shifting Cree and Darragh back to the handling line, but their offense is much more effective when both are cutting upfield.
On a random note, one of their coaches, Ethan Schlenker, might be the nicest guy I've met in the coaching ranks.
USC - Objectively, I think we should be above UCLA and Carleton (despite our loss to Carleton in the 9th place game). The big knock against us right now is that we haven't won the big game. 0-4 in DGP games and losing by two to UCSB reflects the fact that we're a relatively young program and still getting used to battling the traditional top-tier programs. Looking at the upside, before our Carleton game, we were as consistent as any of the top teams at Pres Day and had lost five games by a total of six points.
I'm sure some BLU players will grumble about me placing USC above UCLA, but I'll just point to the current RRI ratings and our consistency over the course of the season. Plus, cardinal and gold will always be inherently superior to pansy blue and urine yellow. Yeah, I went there. Bring it.
Pseudo-joking aside, the USC-UCLA matchup will be one of the most interesting ones to watch this year. Though the Hellions closed the gap between them last year, the women's Ultimate version of their rivalry has never been particularly close until now. Many people I've spoken with think that the Hellions have overtaken BLU, but in a rivalry like this one, the mental hurdle remains a big one and UCLA will remain the favorites until we beat them in a meaningful game in the spring.
You see this kind of thing in sports all the time. In basketball, it took a few years for the Bulls to figure out the Pistons before they could become the dominant team of the 90s. In baseball, you've got the Red Sox and the Yankees and all the years of suffering for Boston until they figured out how to beat the Yankees in a big way. In these kinds of rivalries, it doesn't matter how you've done against other teams and who should technically win the big game. You can't get the monkey off your back if you don't wrestle with the monkey. I hope we wrestle with the monkey at the Stanford University - Ripon campus.
UCLA - As I mentioned in previous posts, the big question for them was to determine who was going to step up in Taz's shoes. The leading contender right now is Samara Leader aka Nokie. Her emergence is especially vital since it is unclear if Cailey Marsh will be returning to school. The Magic 8 Ball says that 'Signs Point to Yes', Cailey will return, but they benefit greatly from Leader's willingness to put the disc up to their young athletic receivers.
While their lopsided losses to UCSB, Ottawa and Berkeley suggest that they have a lot of work to do, I would advise against underestimating this team. Alex Korb is one cunning guy and a great motivator. Their fundamentals remain as strong as any other team out there, and there is tremendous value that comes with having been one of the dominant programs over the past few years. They could emerge as a team similar to the 2007 Stanford Superfly squad that in my estimation was weaker than the prior two squads, but still took home the trophy. If you look at their regular season results from that year, Stanford was less than spectacular; however, winning breeds winning and they turned it on at the biggest stage. While I would bet against UCLA reaching the heights of the past three years, they remain a dangerous squad and will be able to draw upon the confidence built by the first generation of BLU.
CARLETON - Yeah, they beat us on Monday, so they have a legitimate claim to being ranked above USC. I definitely had to rank them below UCLA, both because of their head-to-head and their overall performance this season. These rankings could easily be flipped after Centex so I would take them with a grain of salt.
I also want to apologize for having introduced Syzygy to Cranky Frankie. The rain coupled with the Hellions having prepped poorly with their weather gear made for a rough game. This was easily my worst coaching performance of the year, and I hate knowing that I let my team down by getting easily frustrated and making the miserable playing conditions worse. I still have a long way to go.
Kudos to Carleton as they simply out-executed us with their game plan. They fell into our mini-bracket as the other tough-luck team having lost two DGP games. Nicky Bloom, Rebecca Sheridan and Anna Snyder led their attack and their fundamentals were very impressive. In a game under these conditions, it was impossible to tell where their other strengths and weaknesses lie, but I can't imagine them not qualifying out of the Central Region. I am surprised that they lost to UCSD, but this was really early in the tourney, and I'd imagine that they haven't seen temperatures above 40 degrees in several months.
The most important thing that I took away from this game is that I finally found out what they had been saying in their end zone cheers for the past two years. Moooooooonshine! On top... on top... on top... HEY!!! I have no idea what that cheer is about, but I love it. It's strangely hypnotic and I hope that you bring it back.
This entry is long enough for now. I'll be rambling about the rest of the Pres Day field in my next post. I also hope to have a special bonus post for next week.
1) I am aiming to post a blog entry every Friday until the week after Nationals. I hope that writing more regularly will help develop more interest and provoke more discussion about the women's division.
2) I have no idea who, if anyone, has been reading my blog, but I hope that it is clear that my thoughts are my own and I will be interweaving a mix of objective assessments, subjective judgments and the occasional complete fabrication that is solely for entertainment purposes. I leave it to the reader to decipher fact, fiction and absurdity, and to be understanding when I write something completely inane (my wife hears me say something stupid every day so think about how hard her life is).
3) On a related note, though I coach the USC Hellions, my thoughts do not reflect those of the team. Let me clarify that. Anything that you find intelligent or correct is something you can attribute to the Hellions. Anything that you find appalling or loathsome, the Hellions have nothing do with it.
4) UCSD and the other Pres Day organizers are to be highly commended for running a superb tourney. Loryn Kanemaru, Sarah McNees, Michelle Ng, and the entire UC San Diego team deserve a ton of credit for a great weekend. They had to contend with difficult weather issues and a number of logistical challenges. Despite this, their communication with teams was excellent, they were able to post scores promptly, and they made the difficult but correct decision to move the tourney to San Bernardino on Monday.
Here's one example of a little detail that makes a big difference. When we were out at one of the satellite fields on Sunday, there was a UCSD-B player there to make sure that teams were adhering to the schedule and communicate with home base (report scores and any potential delays). This was all the more remarkable because there was only one field there. After we finished our game against Colorado, we had to rush to the main fields to play our pre-quarters game, but we didn't have to worry about getting assessed points or causing any confusion because they had someone at our field. Being that person at the satellite field is a pretty dull and thankless job, but it makes a big difference in how smoothly a tournament is run.
Make no doubt about it. The Pres Day organizers have set a higher bar for how the elite tourneys should be run. If other attending teams disagree, I'd love to hear their thoughts.
5) There is a great deal of parity this year in the women's division. I think UCSB and Oregon might be emerging as the frontrunners but the separation between them and the rest of the top 8-10 (Ottawa, Stanford, Washington, Wisconsin, British Columbia, Michigan and arguably USC, Cal, Carleton and UCLA) is very thin.
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And now, here are my thoughts on some of the teams that I saw at Pres Day (mostly in order of how I'll be ranking them on my next NUMP ballot).
TIER ONE - UCSB, OREGON, OTTAWA, STANFORD, BRITISH COLUMBIA
UC SANTA BARBARA - I went back and forth between UCSB and Oregon for the number one spot. Some might think this is a no-brainer since the Burning Skirts beat Fugue in the Pres Day finals, but I'm not basing my decision on that. I think Fugue actually has a little more talent and depth than UCSB does, but I'm splitting hairs there. For me, it simply boils down to the amount of big game experience on the two squads. Oregon does have a number of Junior Worlds players (McDowell, Zahniser, Suver) and they pulled out the DGP win over Stanford at Regionals last year. On the flip side, the Burning Skirts have been in the Collegiate finals the past two years and they return almost everyone from last year's run. Beyond that, UCSB blitzed through the Pres Day field without anyone scoring more than five points on them. Plus, they are doing all of this without Katie Barry. Yikes.
Though Kaela Jorgenson and Carolyn Finney are captaining the squad this year, Andrea Romano remains the de facto leader of this team. She is likely going to be their Callahan nominee and her impact on the field is well-documented. That said, I think Kaela is emerging as the player that poses the most difficult matchup problems. She is a bit more dangerous as a receiver and her throws have become lethal.
OREGON - The argument in favor of Fugue as number one has a lot of strength. They have beaten Stanford twice, UBC twice and Washington once. They have only been seriously challenged in three games -- Stanford (top 5 team), USC (feel free to disagree, but I think we're a top 10 team right now) and UCSB (numero uno). UCSB certainly benefitted from not having to play Ottawa in the semifinals, and my sense is that their finals matchup, an ugly affair in the rain, could have gone either way.
I haven't seen Washington or Wisconsin this year, so it's not exactly fair for me to write that UCSB and Oregon are much more deserving of the top two spots. Screw it, I'm going to write that anyway. UCSB AND OREGON ARE MORE DESERVING OF THE NUMBER ONE AND TWO SPOTS THAN WASHINGTON AND WISCONSIN.
I don't know how heavily you can weigh the results from the Bellingham Invite (which are difficult to access on the UPA score reporter), but Fugue beat down Element. They also proved their strength this weekend against a much more difficult field than the one at Trouble in Vegas. I am mainly being vocal about this because Fugue was ranked 7th in the last NUMP poll (I had them number one). I'm guessing that most of the voters didn't see the Bellingham results. I'll be harassing the other NUMP voters if they screw it up in the next poll.
Our game against Fugue in pool play was a ton of fun to be a part of. It reminded me of the time I got my wisdom teeth pulled out and was administered nitrous. I felt oddly queasy, deliriously entertained and by the end I wasn't sure how I got there but I definitely felt like I had gone through an out-of-body experience. It's like any other experience that is nerve-wracking while you're going through it but only induces good feelings after the fact.
The matchup was the last game of the day and both teams started in sluggish fashion. After the first five points or so, both teams stepped up their games and it turned into an entertaining slugfest with some tremendous Ds by Bailey Zahniser (please Ultimate gods, send a Junior Worlds player to USC), great cutting from Jenica Villamoor and impressive handling by Julia Sherwood, Molly Suver and Shannon McDowell.
The cap went on after we tied the game at 7s. We took the next point to go up 8-7, and they held serve to send the game to our second DGP of the day. That point was both incredibly entertaining and agonizing to watch. Miscommunication on a reset gave Fugue the disc at midfield but they couldn't capitalize. On an ensuing possession, a Fugue receiver dropped the disc in the end zone. We had a high-stall count punt into the end zone tail just out of bounds. I think both teams turned it over three or four times and players on both sides looked spent. The game winner went to the same Fugue receiver who had previously dropped it. I was obviously disappointed with the outcome of the game, but a) I was happy that the Fugue receiver got to redeem herself, and b) it was really great to see both teams elevate their games and push each other to play better.
Andrew Davis caught one of the highlights of the game when Lindsey Cross was targeted in the end zone with a low breakmark backhand. This disc was actually caught by Anne Ohliger (seen in the background) who had an equally impressive layout.
OTTAWA - I think Ottawa and Stanford could also have been easily interchangeable if not for Ottawa's 12-6 victory in power pool play. I was a little surprised that they won by such a sizable margin over an impressive Superfly squad, and unfortunately I don't have any details about that game. For those who are puzzled by the Lady Gee Gee's nine-point loss to Oregon in pool play, one of the major factors in the lopsided result is that Anne Mercier didn't play that game. I would still have picked Fugue to win the game, but I can definitely guarantee that the result would have been considerably closer with Mercier playing.
Our game against Ottawa was a weird series of runs. We opened the game with a 3-0 run only to see the Gee Gee's return with a four point run of their own. We went on a run to take half 7-6, but the momentum swung the other way when Ottawa scored five of the next six points to go up 11-8. The Hellions surged back with another 3 point run to send the game to double game point. Ottawa's big three (Mercier, Benedict and Fortin) were instrumental in moving the disc down the field and their poise was very impressive as they maintained possession of the disc for the game winning score.
I think the Lady Gee Gee's were missing Kate Crump, but even with her, depth is going to be a big question mark for them in May. They should have no problems qualifying out of the Metro East, but over the course of a tough tourney like the Collegiate Championships, they'll need to keep their big three as fresh as possible. It was definitely an issue for them last May, and I think they learned from that experience. In what I saw of their game against Illinois, they were clearly developing some of their younger players. I'll be interested to see how deep they are subbing at Centex.
STANFORD - Unfortunately, I have only seen Superfly in short spurts this year. The triumvirate of Emily Damon, Jenny Founds and Rachel Habbert are as steady as any handling corps in the game and Liz Cassel leads the cutting side. I'm curious to see who else is stepping up for Stanford. [Update: Emily Damon has been out with an elbow injury. Thanks to Ryan for the news.]
One major concern for Superfly has got to be the shift in power in their rivalry against Oregon. In a region where tiny variables could settle the difference between first in the region and not qualifying for Nationals, Superfly is developing a major mental hurdle against Fugue. Having lost to them on DGP at Regionals, they lost twice to them this past weekend. Losing again on DGP only shifts the balance further in Oregon's favor.
It is still early in the season, but unless they figure out how to produce a win over Fugue before Regionals, Stanford will not be wanting to go through them. Make no mistake about it -- these kinds of wins and losses do matter and the psychological impact should not be underestimated. On the plus side, the Stanford coaches are as well-equipped as any coaching staff to handle this challenge, and they have owned Berkeley in their two matchups this season. How Stanford matches up against Washington and UBC will be one of the major stories at the Stanford Invite.
BRITISH COLUMBIA - Don't be fooled by their poor record and lopsided losses to Oregon and Santa Barbara. The word is that they have been developing their younger players, and some ups and downs will be expected as they adjust to the post-Kira Frew era. If Regionals took place today, I would predict that Oregon and UBC would be the two teams to beat and Washington and Stanford would be battling in the game to go. Cal and Western Washington are both very solid but they are presently on the outside looking in. That's life in the Northwest.
I'm not sure if their subbing strategy changed in our pre-quarters game, but the team that played against us was every bit as good as Ottawa and Oregon. Tory Hislop played every point and I can't remember Jenny Lo taking a sub. These two contributed immensely on both sides of the disc. Their offensive game plan was based on constant disc movement and maximizing give-and-gos whenever possible. Most of their players played within themselves very well and whenever they needed a big throw, they would look to Hislop to find the weak spots in our zone.
To say the least, our loss was really difficult to take. Not only was it the third DGP loss of the weekend (our 4th of the season), we had never trailed until the final point and held an 11-8 lead. Worse for me was how much tougher each loss felt than the previous one.
I'll be ranking the Thunderbirds below Cal in the next NUMP ballot because of their head-to-head result, but I think at full strength in a winner-takes-all game, UBC is the better team right now. I don't have a sense of what UBC's depth is, and like Ottawa, this could be an issue for them at Regionals. They are certainly doing the right thing in addressing their depth concerns, but they will still need Tory Hislop and Jenny Lo fresh for their big games. Seeding is going to be crucial in the Northwest as minimizing the number of potentially grueling games is of paramount importance. Whichever team is able to keep their top line fresher for the game-to-go will have a big advantage.
TIER TWO - CAL, USC, UCLA, CARLETON
The next few teams are virtually interchangeable at this point in the season. Carleton's surprising loss to UC San Diego complicates things, and I was only able to evaluate their play in crappy conditions, but my gut tells me that they belong on this tier.
CAL - There's a decent argument for including the Pie Queens in the top tier as they have only lost to two teams this year (UCSB and Stanford). Unfortunately, they have lost in pretty convincing fashion in those four games. On the plus side, they have two quality wins against UCLA and another in their victory over UBC. I don't have details on their power pool games, so I can't really say how decisive these victories were.
Cree Howard is their most recognizable player (deservedly so), but I really like both Darragh Clancy and Lucy 'Bam Bam' Rosenbloom. They bring toughness to the Pie Queens, and they were the biggest factors in their victory over us at the SB Invite. They have a number of solid handlers, but I think a potential Achilles' Heel for them is that their handlers are susceptible to matchup problems, especially after a turnover. They can adjust to this by shifting Cree and Darragh back to the handling line, but their offense is much more effective when both are cutting upfield.
On a random note, one of their coaches, Ethan Schlenker, might be the nicest guy I've met in the coaching ranks.
USC - Objectively, I think we should be above UCLA and Carleton (despite our loss to Carleton in the 9th place game). The big knock against us right now is that we haven't won the big game. 0-4 in DGP games and losing by two to UCSB reflects the fact that we're a relatively young program and still getting used to battling the traditional top-tier programs. Looking at the upside, before our Carleton game, we were as consistent as any of the top teams at Pres Day and had lost five games by a total of six points.
I'm sure some BLU players will grumble about me placing USC above UCLA, but I'll just point to the current RRI ratings and our consistency over the course of the season. Plus, cardinal and gold will always be inherently superior to pansy blue and urine yellow. Yeah, I went there. Bring it.
Pseudo-joking aside, the USC-UCLA matchup will be one of the most interesting ones to watch this year. Though the Hellions closed the gap between them last year, the women's Ultimate version of their rivalry has never been particularly close until now. Many people I've spoken with think that the Hellions have overtaken BLU, but in a rivalry like this one, the mental hurdle remains a big one and UCLA will remain the favorites until we beat them in a meaningful game in the spring.
You see this kind of thing in sports all the time. In basketball, it took a few years for the Bulls to figure out the Pistons before they could become the dominant team of the 90s. In baseball, you've got the Red Sox and the Yankees and all the years of suffering for Boston until they figured out how to beat the Yankees in a big way. In these kinds of rivalries, it doesn't matter how you've done against other teams and who should technically win the big game. You can't get the monkey off your back if you don't wrestle with the monkey. I hope we wrestle with the monkey at the Stanford University - Ripon campus.
UCLA - As I mentioned in previous posts, the big question for them was to determine who was going to step up in Taz's shoes. The leading contender right now is Samara Leader aka Nokie. Her emergence is especially vital since it is unclear if Cailey Marsh will be returning to school. The Magic 8 Ball says that 'Signs Point to Yes', Cailey will return, but they benefit greatly from Leader's willingness to put the disc up to their young athletic receivers.
While their lopsided losses to UCSB, Ottawa and Berkeley suggest that they have a lot of work to do, I would advise against underestimating this team. Alex Korb is one cunning guy and a great motivator. Their fundamentals remain as strong as any other team out there, and there is tremendous value that comes with having been one of the dominant programs over the past few years. They could emerge as a team similar to the 2007 Stanford Superfly squad that in my estimation was weaker than the prior two squads, but still took home the trophy. If you look at their regular season results from that year, Stanford was less than spectacular; however, winning breeds winning and they turned it on at the biggest stage. While I would bet against UCLA reaching the heights of the past three years, they remain a dangerous squad and will be able to draw upon the confidence built by the first generation of BLU.
CARLETON - Yeah, they beat us on Monday, so they have a legitimate claim to being ranked above USC. I definitely had to rank them below UCLA, both because of their head-to-head and their overall performance this season. These rankings could easily be flipped after Centex so I would take them with a grain of salt.
I also want to apologize for having introduced Syzygy to Cranky Frankie. The rain coupled with the Hellions having prepped poorly with their weather gear made for a rough game. This was easily my worst coaching performance of the year, and I hate knowing that I let my team down by getting easily frustrated and making the miserable playing conditions worse. I still have a long way to go.
Kudos to Carleton as they simply out-executed us with their game plan. They fell into our mini-bracket as the other tough-luck team having lost two DGP games. Nicky Bloom, Rebecca Sheridan and Anna Snyder led their attack and their fundamentals were very impressive. In a game under these conditions, it was impossible to tell where their other strengths and weaknesses lie, but I can't imagine them not qualifying out of the Central Region. I am surprised that they lost to UCSD, but this was really early in the tourney, and I'd imagine that they haven't seen temperatures above 40 degrees in several months.
The most important thing that I took away from this game is that I finally found out what they had been saying in their end zone cheers for the past two years. Moooooooonshine! On top... on top... on top... HEY!!! I have no idea what that cheer is about, but I love it. It's strangely hypnotic and I hope that you bring it back.
This entry is long enough for now. I'll be rambling about the rest of the Pres Day field in my next post. I also hope to have a special bonus post for next week.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Santa Barbara Invite Preview
While it is way too early to read too much into the results of this tourney, the Santa Barbara Invite will provide an early look at several teams who have a legitimate shot at making the trip to this year's College Championships. Here's the down and dirty overview of this weekend's tourney.
POOL A
UC Santa Barbara / California / Cal Poly SLO / USC-B
The Burning Skirts are the overwhelming favorite in this pool but they encounter some difficulties with the Pie Queens. At present, it's a bit unclear where Berkeley stands in the big picture and this tourney should provide a glimpse into where they stand. Cree Howard is one of the top receivers in the country, but the real key to their success lies in the performance of their handlers. Cal picked up Anna Mebust from Claremont who should be an immediate help to their handling corps.
Cal Poly SLO is going to be one of those mystery teams that will give teams some problems, especially early in the season. There is certainly a potential for an upset here, though a 9 seed trumping an 8 doesn't qualify as much of an upset. Still, this is a bit of a David vs. Goliath game in terms of what their programs have done in the past and a SLO Motion win would definitely be a big step upward for their program. With the weather forecasting rain (you can basically count on rain for this tourney), the potential for an upset is magnified.
USC-B is PINK awesomeness.
POOL B
USC / Arizona / UC Santa Cruz / Cal-B
As my typical M.O. is not to forecast my team's performance, I'll refrain from commenting on our chances. I will instead note that the team is excited about the new position of being a high seed and looking forward to the challenge of higher expectations.
Arizona vs. UC Santa Cruz is one of the other really interesting matchups on Saturday. UC Santa Cruz is a team that is trending upwards and could make some noise after rebuilding last year. Lillian Berla is no longer there, but her absence should provide the opportunity for a new crop of players to step up. Their semifinals appearance at Sean Ryan was a bit surprising to some, but their potential was pretty clear to me at last year's Stanford Qualifier.
Arizona resembles UC Santa Cruz last year as they are in a bit of a rebuilding phase. I think they are starting with a stronger base than Sol had last year, but one factor that could weigh heavily in the outcome is how many players they are able to bring to Santa Barbara. They will likely rely heavily on Caitlin Wright, but they'll need other players to be consistent threats to do well this weekend.
I don't have much to say about the other B teams, but it will be interesting to see who ends up as the top B team at this tourney. I wonder if anyone has studied to what extent the strength of a B team corresponds with the success of their A team. It seems obvious to say that this is certainly the case, but I'm not convinced. I think B teams vary greatly, ranging from true feeder teams that will move up to the A team to teams that are mainly comprised of lower-commitment players or those who are less athletically-talented. Of course, most B teams have a combination of those elements but I think it's still safe to say that it ranges greatly.
POOL C
UCLA / UC San Diego / UC Irvine / Stanford-B
I think this pool will be the most straightforward one and the possibility of an upset is fairly remote. UCLA is rumored to have lost Cailey Marsh for the quarter. If this is indeed the case, it will be interesting to see who steps up as their primary throwers.
With the announcement that the SW is getting 4 bids to Columbus, UCSD and Claremont have much better odds of qualifying for Nationals. As such, I suspect that UCSD will continue to develop their young players as they will need them to contend later in the season. More than any of the other teams at the SB Invite, I think you can pay the least attention to the scores of their games.
UC Irvine is probably the squirreliest team in the Southwest and Iris Leung deserves some attention as a candidate for the Southwest All-Region team. With so many good players in the region, the contending teams will command most of the attention and votes, but Iris would likely be on every starting line in the region. I'd love to see the UPA or someone else develop a 2nd and 3rd All-Region team to spotlight players and teams that don't receive as much attention.
POOL D
Claremont / Stanford / UC Davis / UCLA-B
I would have seeded Stanford above Claremont, but it really doesn't matter much. I'm guessing Claremont's win over UCSB at Sean Ryan had something to do with this. Regardless, their game against Superfly gives Claremont a chance to prove to outsiders whether they are for real or not. Of all the pool games, this is the game that I'd want to watch most.
UC Davis is a potentially dangerous team and this year looks to be a big bounce-back year after being down last year. I think the ground between them and the top two seeds is way too big this early in the season. They will benefit greatly from being in the Pres Day field and their future looks bright.
POOL A
UC Santa Barbara / California / Cal Poly SLO / USC-B
The Burning Skirts are the overwhelming favorite in this pool but they encounter some difficulties with the Pie Queens. At present, it's a bit unclear where Berkeley stands in the big picture and this tourney should provide a glimpse into where they stand. Cree Howard is one of the top receivers in the country, but the real key to their success lies in the performance of their handlers. Cal picked up Anna Mebust from Claremont who should be an immediate help to their handling corps.
Cal Poly SLO is going to be one of those mystery teams that will give teams some problems, especially early in the season. There is certainly a potential for an upset here, though a 9 seed trumping an 8 doesn't qualify as much of an upset. Still, this is a bit of a David vs. Goliath game in terms of what their programs have done in the past and a SLO Motion win would definitely be a big step upward for their program. With the weather forecasting rain (you can basically count on rain for this tourney), the potential for an upset is magnified.
USC-B is PINK awesomeness.
POOL B
USC / Arizona / UC Santa Cruz / Cal-B
As my typical M.O. is not to forecast my team's performance, I'll refrain from commenting on our chances. I will instead note that the team is excited about the new position of being a high seed and looking forward to the challenge of higher expectations.
Arizona vs. UC Santa Cruz is one of the other really interesting matchups on Saturday. UC Santa Cruz is a team that is trending upwards and could make some noise after rebuilding last year. Lillian Berla is no longer there, but her absence should provide the opportunity for a new crop of players to step up. Their semifinals appearance at Sean Ryan was a bit surprising to some, but their potential was pretty clear to me at last year's Stanford Qualifier.
Arizona resembles UC Santa Cruz last year as they are in a bit of a rebuilding phase. I think they are starting with a stronger base than Sol had last year, but one factor that could weigh heavily in the outcome is how many players they are able to bring to Santa Barbara. They will likely rely heavily on Caitlin Wright, but they'll need other players to be consistent threats to do well this weekend.
I don't have much to say about the other B teams, but it will be interesting to see who ends up as the top B team at this tourney. I wonder if anyone has studied to what extent the strength of a B team corresponds with the success of their A team. It seems obvious to say that this is certainly the case, but I'm not convinced. I think B teams vary greatly, ranging from true feeder teams that will move up to the A team to teams that are mainly comprised of lower-commitment players or those who are less athletically-talented. Of course, most B teams have a combination of those elements but I think it's still safe to say that it ranges greatly.
POOL C
UCLA / UC San Diego / UC Irvine / Stanford-B
I think this pool will be the most straightforward one and the possibility of an upset is fairly remote. UCLA is rumored to have lost Cailey Marsh for the quarter. If this is indeed the case, it will be interesting to see who steps up as their primary throwers.
With the announcement that the SW is getting 4 bids to Columbus, UCSD and Claremont have much better odds of qualifying for Nationals. As such, I suspect that UCSD will continue to develop their young players as they will need them to contend later in the season. More than any of the other teams at the SB Invite, I think you can pay the least attention to the scores of their games.
UC Irvine is probably the squirreliest team in the Southwest and Iris Leung deserves some attention as a candidate for the Southwest All-Region team. With so many good players in the region, the contending teams will command most of the attention and votes, but Iris would likely be on every starting line in the region. I'd love to see the UPA or someone else develop a 2nd and 3rd All-Region team to spotlight players and teams that don't receive as much attention.
POOL D
Claremont / Stanford / UC Davis / UCLA-B
I would have seeded Stanford above Claremont, but it really doesn't matter much. I'm guessing Claremont's win over UCSB at Sean Ryan had something to do with this. Regardless, their game against Superfly gives Claremont a chance to prove to outsiders whether they are for real or not. Of all the pool games, this is the game that I'd want to watch most.
UC Davis is a potentially dangerous team and this year looks to be a big bounce-back year after being down last year. I think the ground between them and the top two seeds is way too big this early in the season. They will benefit greatly from being in the Pres Day field and their future looks bright.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Sean Ryan
Going to tournaments in Santa Cruz is one of the truly great joys of playing on the West Coast. Though fog and rain can sometimes be an issue, the weather is usually fantastic, the view is phenomenal and the fields are among the best around. I am convinced that the deer that inhabit the campus are actually magical creatures gifted with unparalleled agricultural skills. The piles of crap that they leave behind are simply gifts of love that nourish the field. I guess that's one way to look at it.
Here are my brief thoughts on each team we played.
UC San Diego
The Psychos brought a large squad to the tourney and their veterans were playing each game essentially as a split squad in order to get their rookies as much PT as possible. I think this was a very savvy move by UCSD as their program definitely needs to focus on their younger players to make up for last year's suspension. I think they'll be solid this year, capable of coming up with some quality wins but unless their younger players develop at an abnormally fast clip, they won't have the depth to challenge the top-tier teams. Tenise Ambler (UCSD alumna, Safari) is coaching the team this year and will be critical in getting the perennial power back to the top of the Southwest.
Stanford X
I was a little surprised by how small Stanford's split squad was. Even after missing out on Nationals last year, they still remain in my mind the flagship program for women's collegiate Ultimate. The squad we faced was led by Rachel Habbert who will be anchoring Superfly's squad along with Emily Damon, Jenny Founds, Liz Cassel and Ana Brown. A couple of their younger players have a good blend of size and athleticism so I'd imagine they'll be in the thick of the Northwest picture this year.
On a side note, teams in the Northwest will have to adopt a very different approach than teams in other regions. There's no question that whoever emerges from the Northwest will be battle-tested and ready for a run at the title. The trick is getting to Nationals. At a cursory glance, I think six teams have a legitimate shot at the two bids - Washington, UBC, Oregon are the favorites while Stanford, Berkeley and Western Washington should all be capable of taking out the top three. Pacific Lutheran could join this list but I don't know how many players they are returning from last year. Getting familiar with the competition is obviously critical, but developing depth is much more crucial in this region than any other. Finishing in the top two means having to beat at least 3-4 quality teams. I don't think that's possible unless you have 14+ players that you fully trust on the field.
By contrast, I think teams in most other regions can get away with being 8-10 deep (perhaps even fewer in some places). While I think the Southwest is on the rise and could challenge the Northwest for the title this year, I have to give some props to them; it's a very tough region and it's very likely that at least one top-10 caliber team will miss out on Nationals.
Alameda
These kids have some great athletes and a lot of credit goes to their coaches. Going into the game, I had warned the Hellions about letting down and not taking them seriously enough. Sure enough, we played flat the entire game and had to play our veterans more than I wanted to.
I don't know how other coaches / captains deal with this issue, but I know that there's a danger in warning the team not to let down. First of all, it implicitly sends the message that your team is heavily favored and should win the game. If they weren't overconfident before, they are much more likely to be so. Second, it's really hard to achieve a negative goal. In essence, the only thing you can do is fail if you know you should win with relative ease. I know that there are good strategies to deal with this and keep the team focused and motivated, but I failed to use them appropriately in this game. On the positive side, games like this are good reminders of the importance of maintaining the collective focus.
At the end of Saturday, all that really mattered was that we had won our pool despite entering the tourney as the ninth seed. I'm sure that a hundred other teams feel the same way, but we honestly thought we were incredibly underseeded. I know that this is something that comes with being the relatively new kid on the block. Last spring, we got some respect after winning the Stanford Qualifier, but I still get the sense that few teams, perhaps none outside our section, are ready to acknowledge how good the Hellions are. As long as we get the chance to prove ourselves at the big tourneys, I'm not going to sweat the respect issue.
Quarterfinals vs. UCLA X
I'm really interested in seeing BLU in the spring. They have a lot of good players, but it remains to be seen if anyone will step into the starring roles. Taz, Kix and Gizmo were able to fill the big roles left by Mad Dog, Clyde and Pooja, but it seems really unclear who will replace them. Adrienne Baker (Hawkins) and Katie Falk (Balboa) are two strong candidates to follow in Kix's footsteps as dominant receivers, but I'm not sure who will be their big-time thrower. Cailey Marsh could become that player but I think she's still a year or so away despite her impressive fundamentals. Karisa Tang (Danger) is another possibility but like Cailey, she thrives as a mover of the disc, making precision throws rather than bombing deep shots on a consistent basis.
Perhaps even more important is the departure of Gizmo and Fresh, both of whom gave BLU's defense a toughness that could match any team's offense. I think BLU can (and will likely) still be very successful in the spring, especially if they redefine their offensive and defensive identity, but I don't think they will be a team with an intimidating presence, particularly on the defensive side.
I definitely expected to win this game, but they really made the game tough for us. For the most part, they played relatively cleanly on offense, and we failed to capitalize on good break opportunities early in the game. Cailey and Danger were both critical for the X squad, and I think we would have run away with the game if not for them. I was particularly ecstatic about how we won this game. After struggling on the offensive end all game, our D line closed out the game with a nice forehand shot from Norm to T-Stamp, one of our many talented rookies. One of the Hellions' B-Team coaches, Jess (Smeagol), was euphoric after this win. She had started playing with the Hellions and during her time with the team, she never expected to beat BLU.
Semifinals vs. Claremont
I was informed before the start of the year that Erica Baken, a product of Hopkins and member of the Juniors Worlds team, was going to attend Claremont. Sure enough, the first thing I saw on Saturday was Erica jacking the disc against UCSB in their upset win. The Greenshirts are likely going to be similar to UCSD this year -- both have 4-5 very good players leading a decent number of young returners. While they aren't incredibly deep, Claremont will contend with some very good teams because they have a high-powered offense. Kate Bayliss and Katie McDonald are both athletic players with good range on their throws. They have one player that I think is a rookie who is quite athletic and played some solid defense on Kaela from UCSB and Lindsey Cross (Screech). They could emerge as dark horse candidate for one of the three Southwest bids, especially if they can get a coach to implement a more-structured system and maximize their talent.
Finals vs. UC Santa Barbara
I have the feeling (and the hope) that we'll be facing them many times in the spring season. Over the past two years, they have become an increasingly fun team to play, and I have a great deal of respect for what they've accomplished since I've been coaching. Each time we've played them, it's been interesting to see certain matchups develop. Kaela Jorgenson is one of the most athletic players in women's collegiate Ultimate and has emerged as a great cutter-thrower option for the Burning Skirts. I think her matchup with Lindsey Cross is emerging as one of the most interesting matchups in the game.
We stormed out to an early lead in this game, taking the first three points and trading to a 5-2 lead. As expected, they fought back and ran off three in a row to tie the game up. I felt pretty confident that we'd bounce back to take half, and after trading the next two point, it appeared that we had done so. A score was called off on a violation that caused a bit of confusion and discussion. We weren't able to punch it in after the discussion was resolved but UCSB capitalized.
Our second half effort was a bit disappointing but I give a great deal of credit to the Burning Skirts. Their offense in the second half was the cleanest I had seen all weekend. We simply made more mistakes than they did, and some of that was certainly due to their defensive intensity. I thought it would be a closer final, but the weekend was still a satisfying one. Our rookies got their first look at serious competition, and we accomplished our goal of getting to the finals.
Women's Ultimate Meeting
Cree Howard organized a meeting for Saturday night to discuss some of the big issues related to women's Ultimate, in particular the recent flap regarding NCUA / Cultimate / Conference 1. Most of the teams at Sean Ryan had representatives there, and the upcoming spring season was the primary topic of conversation. One potentially positive side effect of the NCUA controversy is that it may have the unexpected benefit of being a catalyst for women's teams to organize and take more control over their division. I think it's clear that the women's division has been taken less seriously than the open division, and there are some serious issues regarding equality and fairness that need to be addressed. While I also believe that the open division will naturally draw more attention, the current discrepancies between the two divisions is unacceptable and now is the time to push for changes in how the division is treated. I'll be writing more about the specific issues in an upcoming post.
Here are my brief thoughts on each team we played.
UC San Diego
The Psychos brought a large squad to the tourney and their veterans were playing each game essentially as a split squad in order to get their rookies as much PT as possible. I think this was a very savvy move by UCSD as their program definitely needs to focus on their younger players to make up for last year's suspension. I think they'll be solid this year, capable of coming up with some quality wins but unless their younger players develop at an abnormally fast clip, they won't have the depth to challenge the top-tier teams. Tenise Ambler (UCSD alumna, Safari) is coaching the team this year and will be critical in getting the perennial power back to the top of the Southwest.
Stanford X
I was a little surprised by how small Stanford's split squad was. Even after missing out on Nationals last year, they still remain in my mind the flagship program for women's collegiate Ultimate. The squad we faced was led by Rachel Habbert who will be anchoring Superfly's squad along with Emily Damon, Jenny Founds, Liz Cassel and Ana Brown. A couple of their younger players have a good blend of size and athleticism so I'd imagine they'll be in the thick of the Northwest picture this year.
On a side note, teams in the Northwest will have to adopt a very different approach than teams in other regions. There's no question that whoever emerges from the Northwest will be battle-tested and ready for a run at the title. The trick is getting to Nationals. At a cursory glance, I think six teams have a legitimate shot at the two bids - Washington, UBC, Oregon are the favorites while Stanford, Berkeley and Western Washington should all be capable of taking out the top three. Pacific Lutheran could join this list but I don't know how many players they are returning from last year. Getting familiar with the competition is obviously critical, but developing depth is much more crucial in this region than any other. Finishing in the top two means having to beat at least 3-4 quality teams. I don't think that's possible unless you have 14+ players that you fully trust on the field.
By contrast, I think teams in most other regions can get away with being 8-10 deep (perhaps even fewer in some places). While I think the Southwest is on the rise and could challenge the Northwest for the title this year, I have to give some props to them; it's a very tough region and it's very likely that at least one top-10 caliber team will miss out on Nationals.
Alameda
These kids have some great athletes and a lot of credit goes to their coaches. Going into the game, I had warned the Hellions about letting down and not taking them seriously enough. Sure enough, we played flat the entire game and had to play our veterans more than I wanted to.
I don't know how other coaches / captains deal with this issue, but I know that there's a danger in warning the team not to let down. First of all, it implicitly sends the message that your team is heavily favored and should win the game. If they weren't overconfident before, they are much more likely to be so. Second, it's really hard to achieve a negative goal. In essence, the only thing you can do is fail if you know you should win with relative ease. I know that there are good strategies to deal with this and keep the team focused and motivated, but I failed to use them appropriately in this game. On the positive side, games like this are good reminders of the importance of maintaining the collective focus.
At the end of Saturday, all that really mattered was that we had won our pool despite entering the tourney as the ninth seed. I'm sure that a hundred other teams feel the same way, but we honestly thought we were incredibly underseeded. I know that this is something that comes with being the relatively new kid on the block. Last spring, we got some respect after winning the Stanford Qualifier, but I still get the sense that few teams, perhaps none outside our section, are ready to acknowledge how good the Hellions are. As long as we get the chance to prove ourselves at the big tourneys, I'm not going to sweat the respect issue.
Quarterfinals vs. UCLA X
I'm really interested in seeing BLU in the spring. They have a lot of good players, but it remains to be seen if anyone will step into the starring roles. Taz, Kix and Gizmo were able to fill the big roles left by Mad Dog, Clyde and Pooja, but it seems really unclear who will replace them. Adrienne Baker (Hawkins) and Katie Falk (Balboa) are two strong candidates to follow in Kix's footsteps as dominant receivers, but I'm not sure who will be their big-time thrower. Cailey Marsh could become that player but I think she's still a year or so away despite her impressive fundamentals. Karisa Tang (Danger) is another possibility but like Cailey, she thrives as a mover of the disc, making precision throws rather than bombing deep shots on a consistent basis.
Perhaps even more important is the departure of Gizmo and Fresh, both of whom gave BLU's defense a toughness that could match any team's offense. I think BLU can (and will likely) still be very successful in the spring, especially if they redefine their offensive and defensive identity, but I don't think they will be a team with an intimidating presence, particularly on the defensive side.
I definitely expected to win this game, but they really made the game tough for us. For the most part, they played relatively cleanly on offense, and we failed to capitalize on good break opportunities early in the game. Cailey and Danger were both critical for the X squad, and I think we would have run away with the game if not for them. I was particularly ecstatic about how we won this game. After struggling on the offensive end all game, our D line closed out the game with a nice forehand shot from Norm to T-Stamp, one of our many talented rookies. One of the Hellions' B-Team coaches, Jess (Smeagol), was euphoric after this win. She had started playing with the Hellions and during her time with the team, she never expected to beat BLU.
Semifinals vs. Claremont
I was informed before the start of the year that Erica Baken, a product of Hopkins and member of the Juniors Worlds team, was going to attend Claremont. Sure enough, the first thing I saw on Saturday was Erica jacking the disc against UCSB in their upset win. The Greenshirts are likely going to be similar to UCSD this year -- both have 4-5 very good players leading a decent number of young returners. While they aren't incredibly deep, Claremont will contend with some very good teams because they have a high-powered offense. Kate Bayliss and Katie McDonald are both athletic players with good range on their throws. They have one player that I think is a rookie who is quite athletic and played some solid defense on Kaela from UCSB and Lindsey Cross (Screech). They could emerge as dark horse candidate for one of the three Southwest bids, especially if they can get a coach to implement a more-structured system and maximize their talent.
Finals vs. UC Santa Barbara
I have the feeling (and the hope) that we'll be facing them many times in the spring season. Over the past two years, they have become an increasingly fun team to play, and I have a great deal of respect for what they've accomplished since I've been coaching. Each time we've played them, it's been interesting to see certain matchups develop. Kaela Jorgenson is one of the most athletic players in women's collegiate Ultimate and has emerged as a great cutter-thrower option for the Burning Skirts. I think her matchup with Lindsey Cross is emerging as one of the most interesting matchups in the game.
We stormed out to an early lead in this game, taking the first three points and trading to a 5-2 lead. As expected, they fought back and ran off three in a row to tie the game up. I felt pretty confident that we'd bounce back to take half, and after trading the next two point, it appeared that we had done so. A score was called off on a violation that caused a bit of confusion and discussion. We weren't able to punch it in after the discussion was resolved but UCSB capitalized.
Our second half effort was a bit disappointing but I give a great deal of credit to the Burning Skirts. Their offense in the second half was the cleanest I had seen all weekend. We simply made more mistakes than they did, and some of that was certainly due to their defensive intensity. I thought it would be a closer final, but the weekend was still a satisfying one. Our rookies got their first look at serious competition, and we accomplished our goal of getting to the finals.
Women's Ultimate Meeting
Cree Howard organized a meeting for Saturday night to discuss some of the big issues related to women's Ultimate, in particular the recent flap regarding NCUA / Cultimate / Conference 1. Most of the teams at Sean Ryan had representatives there, and the upcoming spring season was the primary topic of conversation. One potentially positive side effect of the NCUA controversy is that it may have the unexpected benefit of being a catalyst for women's teams to organize and take more control over their division. I think it's clear that the women's division has been taken less seriously than the open division, and there are some serious issues regarding equality and fairness that need to be addressed. While I also believe that the open division will naturally draw more attention, the current discrepancies between the two divisions is unacceptable and now is the time to push for changes in how the division is treated. I'll be writing more about the specific issues in an upcoming post.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Southwest Pre-Season Top 10
I'll be posting my thoughts on Sean Ryan and SoCal Warmup soon. For now, I thought it'd be fun to kick off some thoughts about the upcoming college season and the region where I coach. Despite being one of the smallest regions in terms of the number of teams, the Southwest has produced quality women's teams, and the top teams have been rivaling the best in the nation. With three spots to Nationals this year and a growing number of quality teams, it will be an interesting battle in the spring.
1. UC Santa Barbara - They are currently missing Katie Barry (shoulder injury) and Andrea Romano (studying abroad). Steve Dugan wasn't at either Sean Ryan or Socal Warmup. Despite all this, they won Sean Ryan and their two losses were by a combined three points. They are going to be better than they were last year. I think the Regional title (and arguably the National title) goes through the Burning Skirts. Breakout candidates include Milena Jovanovich and Marie.
2. USC - I think teams 2-4 are a step below UCSB, and the three bids to Nationals will almost certainly go to three of the top four. I'm giving the nod to the Hellions because I think USC has the athletic edge over BLU and will be able to use a deeper bench than Kali. If you think my opinion is crap because I coach the Hellions, I encourage you to come up with your own top 10 list. Like UCSB, USC returns almost their entire lineup from last year, including 2007 FOTY Lindsey Cross (Screech).
3. UCLA - The women of Westwood are going to be a top-tier for years to come. They lost some big-time talent last year (Taz, Gizmo, Fresh, Kix, Cosmo, Petree) but they have 11+ returners and a large B team to draw from. They also benefit greatly from the additions of Freshman-of-the-year (FOTY) candidate Cailey Marsh (Northwest High) and Krisztina Jozsef (NYU). Marsh is a critical addition to their handling line, which will be adjusting to life after the departure of Sanan and Banks. 2006 FOTY Karisa Tang, Lauren Sweeney and Shira Greenbaum will be picking up some of the handling slack.
4. Colorado - I haven't seen them this year so this is mainly a guess based on their personnel. They no longer have Julie Fast and Sam Johnson, but they remain very potent with Courtney Verhaalen, Brenna Hokanson and the Waughs. Hokanson got some valuable club experience with Bad Larry and looked very good at Regionals. There may be some bumpy patches as they adjust to a coaching change (Mike Whitaker has left and Tina McDowell is now handling the reins), but their strong performance at No Wisconsequences indicates that they are for real. They have lost in the game to go in the last two years and they will be very motivated to get back to the College Championships.
5. Claremont - Claremont's win over UCSB at Sean Ryan was the big surprise on Saturday. They have a large squad this year featuring a lot of new faces. Erica Baken, a graduate of Hopkins High and a member of the Juniors Worlds team, is a major addition and will rival Cailey Marsh for SW FOTY. Their lack of depth keeps them from breaking into the top four, but as they already proved at Sean Ryan, they are very capable of pulling off an upset. Kate Bayliss is poised to have a big season.
6. UCSD - The Psychos are the big mystery this year after a one-year suspension. They have several talented returners including Jen Jacobsen (Sir Robin), Andrea Cardenas (Ferris) and Amy Chang (Meeko), but it does seem that the suspension hurt the development of their rookies. I think depth is a big issue for them, but they do have the knowhow to build the program back up to national caliber. The potential reemergence of President's Day as a national venue will be a big help to their program. I think they are probably closer to CSULB than Claremont right now, but that could change quickly.
7. Cal State Long Beach - The ladies of No Regrets have built a good foundation for something great in the future. The school is a bit of a sports factory and the recent success of the men's team doesn't come as a big surprise. Long Beach seems like a perfect fit for a strong Ultimate program, and with another good rookie class or two, CSULB could enter the national picture in the near future. Gerene, Patty and Theresa (T-Bone) provide stability on the offensive end and deserve a lot of credit for building this young team. They definitely remind me of where USC was when Tracy and I first came on board two years ago.
8. Arizona - Scorch is going through a pretty sizable rebuilding effort having graduated a slew of players including Julia Tenen, Simrit Khalsa and Jodi McCloskey. Leading the team this year is Caitlin Wright who is critical to running Arizona's offense. On a side note, I have a great deal of admiration for programs like Colorado and Arizona who have been successful despite their geographical isolation. Both teams really deserve a lot of credit for their dedication.
9. Cal Poly SLO - I've only seen them play a couple points this fall, but they have consistently solid for the past few years. A good amount of the credit goes to their coach Jessup Ferris, whose quiet demeanor belies his valuable contributions to women's Ultimate.
10. Caltech - Snatch is at the top of the next tier of teams which includes Colorado State, UC-Irvine, Occidental and UCLA-B. Caltech has brought on Alex David to coach them which will help them to overcome some of the shortcomings that come with being a school with a very small female student population. Caltech could jump up to the next tier if they can get more consistent numbers at tourneys.
1. UC Santa Barbara - They are currently missing Katie Barry (shoulder injury) and Andrea Romano (studying abroad). Steve Dugan wasn't at either Sean Ryan or Socal Warmup. Despite all this, they won Sean Ryan and their two losses were by a combined three points. They are going to be better than they were last year. I think the Regional title (and arguably the National title) goes through the Burning Skirts. Breakout candidates include Milena Jovanovich and Marie.
2. USC - I think teams 2-4 are a step below UCSB, and the three bids to Nationals will almost certainly go to three of the top four. I'm giving the nod to the Hellions because I think USC has the athletic edge over BLU and will be able to use a deeper bench than Kali. If you think my opinion is crap because I coach the Hellions, I encourage you to come up with your own top 10 list. Like UCSB, USC returns almost their entire lineup from last year, including 2007 FOTY Lindsey Cross (Screech).
3. UCLA - The women of Westwood are going to be a top-tier for years to come. They lost some big-time talent last year (Taz, Gizmo, Fresh, Kix, Cosmo, Petree) but they have 11+ returners and a large B team to draw from. They also benefit greatly from the additions of Freshman-of-the-year (FOTY) candidate Cailey Marsh (Northwest High) and Krisztina Jozsef (NYU). Marsh is a critical addition to their handling line, which will be adjusting to life after the departure of Sanan and Banks. 2006 FOTY Karisa Tang, Lauren Sweeney and Shira Greenbaum will be picking up some of the handling slack.
4. Colorado - I haven't seen them this year so this is mainly a guess based on their personnel. They no longer have Julie Fast and Sam Johnson, but they remain very potent with Courtney Verhaalen, Brenna Hokanson and the Waughs. Hokanson got some valuable club experience with Bad Larry and looked very good at Regionals. There may be some bumpy patches as they adjust to a coaching change (Mike Whitaker has left and Tina McDowell is now handling the reins), but their strong performance at No Wisconsequences indicates that they are for real. They have lost in the game to go in the last two years and they will be very motivated to get back to the College Championships.
5. Claremont - Claremont's win over UCSB at Sean Ryan was the big surprise on Saturday. They have a large squad this year featuring a lot of new faces. Erica Baken, a graduate of Hopkins High and a member of the Juniors Worlds team, is a major addition and will rival Cailey Marsh for SW FOTY. Their lack of depth keeps them from breaking into the top four, but as they already proved at Sean Ryan, they are very capable of pulling off an upset. Kate Bayliss is poised to have a big season.
6. UCSD - The Psychos are the big mystery this year after a one-year suspension. They have several talented returners including Jen Jacobsen (Sir Robin), Andrea Cardenas (Ferris) and Amy Chang (Meeko), but it does seem that the suspension hurt the development of their rookies. I think depth is a big issue for them, but they do have the knowhow to build the program back up to national caliber. The potential reemergence of President's Day as a national venue will be a big help to their program. I think they are probably closer to CSULB than Claremont right now, but that could change quickly.
7. Cal State Long Beach - The ladies of No Regrets have built a good foundation for something great in the future. The school is a bit of a sports factory and the recent success of the men's team doesn't come as a big surprise. Long Beach seems like a perfect fit for a strong Ultimate program, and with another good rookie class or two, CSULB could enter the national picture in the near future. Gerene, Patty and Theresa (T-Bone) provide stability on the offensive end and deserve a lot of credit for building this young team. They definitely remind me of where USC was when Tracy and I first came on board two years ago.
8. Arizona - Scorch is going through a pretty sizable rebuilding effort having graduated a slew of players including Julia Tenen, Simrit Khalsa and Jodi McCloskey. Leading the team this year is Caitlin Wright who is critical to running Arizona's offense. On a side note, I have a great deal of admiration for programs like Colorado and Arizona who have been successful despite their geographical isolation. Both teams really deserve a lot of credit for their dedication.
9. Cal Poly SLO - I've only seen them play a couple points this fall, but they have consistently solid for the past few years. A good amount of the credit goes to their coach Jessup Ferris, whose quiet demeanor belies his valuable contributions to women's Ultimate.
10. Caltech - Snatch is at the top of the next tier of teams which includes Colorado State, UC-Irvine, Occidental and UCLA-B. Caltech has brought on Alex David to coach them which will help them to overcome some of the shortcomings that come with being a school with a very small female student population. Caltech could jump up to the next tier if they can get more consistent numbers at tourneys.
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