President's Day - Part One

Before I dive into the results of this past weekend, I wanted to mention a couple of things.

1) I am aiming to post a blog entry every Friday until the week after Nationals. I hope that writing more regularly will help develop more interest and provoke more discussion about the women's division.

2) I have no idea who, if anyone, has been reading my blog, but I hope that it is clear that my thoughts are my own and I will be interweaving a mix of objective assessments, subjective judgments and the occasional complete fabrication that is solely for entertainment purposes. I leave it to the reader to decipher fact, fiction and absurdity, and to be understanding when I write something completely inane (my wife hears me say something stupid every day so think about how hard her life is).

3) On a related note, though I coach the USC Hellions, my thoughts do not reflect those of the team. Let me clarify that. Anything that you find intelligent or correct is something you can attribute to the Hellions. Anything that you find appalling or loathsome, the Hellions have nothing do with it.

4) UCSD and the other Pres Day organizers are to be highly commended for running a superb tourney. Loryn Kanemaru, Sarah McNees, Michelle Ng, and the entire UC San Diego team deserve a ton of credit for a great weekend. They had to contend with difficult weather issues and a number of logistical challenges. Despite this, their communication with teams was excellent, they were able to post scores promptly, and they made the difficult but correct decision to move the tourney to San Bernardino on Monday.

Here's one example of a little detail that makes a big difference. When we were out at one of the satellite fields on Sunday, there was a UCSD-B player there to make sure that teams were adhering to the schedule and communicate with home base (report scores and any potential delays). This was all the more remarkable because there was only one field there. After we finished our game against Colorado, we had to rush to the main fields to play our pre-quarters game, but we didn't have to worry about getting assessed points or causing any confusion because they had someone at our field. Being that person at the satellite field is a pretty dull and thankless job, but it makes a big difference in how smoothly a tournament is run.

Make no doubt about it. The Pres Day organizers have set a higher bar for how the elite tourneys should be run. If other attending teams disagree, I'd love to hear their thoughts.

5) There is a great deal of parity this year in the women's division. I think UCSB and Oregon might be emerging as the frontrunners but the separation between them and the rest of the top 8-10 (Ottawa, Stanford, Washington, Wisconsin, British Columbia, Michigan and arguably USC, Cal, Carleton and UCLA) is very thin.

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And now, here are my thoughts on some of the teams that I saw at Pres Day (mostly in order of how I'll be ranking them on my next NUMP ballot).

TIER ONE - UCSB, OREGON, OTTAWA, STANFORD, BRITISH COLUMBIA

UC SANTA BARBARA - I went back and forth between UCSB and Oregon for the number one spot. Some might think this is a no-brainer since the Burning Skirts beat Fugue in the Pres Day finals, but I'm not basing my decision on that. I think Fugue actually has a little more talent and depth than UCSB does, but I'm splitting hairs there. For me, it simply boils down to the amount of big game experience on the two squads. Oregon does have a number of Junior Worlds players (McDowell, Zahniser, Suver) and they pulled out the DGP win over Stanford at Regionals last year. On the flip side, the Burning Skirts have been in the Collegiate finals the past two years and they return almost everyone from last year's run. Beyond that, UCSB blitzed through the Pres Day field without anyone scoring more than five points on them. Plus, they are doing all of this without Katie Barry. Yikes.

Though Kaela Jorgenson and Carolyn Finney are captaining the squad this year, Andrea Romano remains the de facto leader of this team. She is likely going to be their Callahan nominee and her impact on the field is well-documented. That said, I think Kaela is emerging as the player that poses the most difficult matchup problems. She is a bit more dangerous as a receiver and her throws have become lethal.

OREGON - The argument in favor of Fugue as number one has a lot of strength. They have beaten Stanford twice, UBC twice and Washington once. They have only been seriously challenged in three games -- Stanford (top 5 team), USC (feel free to disagree, but I think we're a top 10 team right now) and UCSB (numero uno). UCSB certainly benefitted from not having to play Ottawa in the semifinals, and my sense is that their finals matchup, an ugly affair in the rain, could have gone either way.

I haven't seen Washington or Wisconsin this year, so it's not exactly fair for me to write that UCSB and Oregon are much more deserving of the top two spots. Screw it, I'm going to write that anyway. UCSB AND OREGON ARE MORE DESERVING OF THE NUMBER ONE AND TWO SPOTS THAN WASHINGTON AND WISCONSIN.

I don't know how heavily you can weigh the results from the Bellingham Invite (which are difficult to access on the UPA score reporter), but Fugue beat down Element. They also proved their strength this weekend against a much more difficult field than the one at Trouble in Vegas. I am mainly being vocal about this because Fugue was ranked 7th in the last NUMP poll (I had them number one). I'm guessing that most of the voters didn't see the Bellingham results. I'll be harassing the other NUMP voters if they screw it up in the next poll.

Our game against Fugue in pool play was a ton of fun to be a part of. It reminded me of the time I got my wisdom teeth pulled out and was administered nitrous. I felt oddly queasy, deliriously entertained and by the end I wasn't sure how I got there but I definitely felt like I had gone through an out-of-body experience. It's like any other experience that is nerve-wracking while you're going through it but only induces good feelings after the fact.

The matchup was the last game of the day and both teams started in sluggish fashion. After the first five points or so, both teams stepped up their games and it turned into an entertaining slugfest with some tremendous Ds by Bailey Zahniser (please Ultimate gods, send a Junior Worlds player to USC), great cutting from Jenica Villamoor and impressive handling by Julia Sherwood, Molly Suver and Shannon McDowell.

The cap went on after we tied the game at 7s. We took the next point to go up 8-7, and they held serve to send the game to our second DGP of the day. That point was both incredibly entertaining and agonizing to watch. Miscommunication on a reset gave Fugue the disc at midfield but they couldn't capitalize. On an ensuing possession, a Fugue receiver dropped the disc in the end zone. We had a high-stall count punt into the end zone tail just out of bounds. I think both teams turned it over three or four times and players on both sides looked spent. The game winner went to the same Fugue receiver who had previously dropped it. I was obviously disappointed with the outcome of the game, but a) I was happy that the Fugue receiver got to redeem herself, and b) it was really great to see both teams elevate their games and push each other to play better.

Andrew Davis caught one of the highlights of the game when Lindsey Cross was targeted in the end zone with a low breakmark backhand. This disc was actually caught by Anne Ohliger (seen in the background) who had an equally impressive layout.

OTTAWA - I think Ottawa and Stanford could also have been easily interchangeable if not for Ottawa's 12-6 victory in power pool play. I was a little surprised that they won by such a sizable margin over an impressive Superfly squad, and unfortunately I don't have any details about that game. For those who are puzzled by the Lady Gee Gee's nine-point loss to Oregon in pool play, one of the major factors in the lopsided result is that Anne Mercier didn't play that game. I would still have picked Fugue to win the game, but I can definitely guarantee that the result would have been considerably closer with Mercier playing.

Our game against Ottawa was a weird series of runs. We opened the game with a 3-0 run only to see the Gee Gee's return with a four point run of their own. We went on a run to take half 7-6, but the momentum swung the other way when Ottawa scored five of the next six points to go up 11-8. The Hellions surged back with another 3 point run to send the game to double game point. Ottawa's big three (Mercier, Benedict and Fortin) were instrumental in moving the disc down the field and their poise was very impressive as they maintained possession of the disc for the game winning score.

I think the Lady Gee Gee's were missing Kate Crump, but even with her, depth is going to be a big question mark for them in May. They should have no problems qualifying out of the Metro East, but over the course of a tough tourney like the Collegiate Championships, they'll need to keep their big three as fresh as possible. It was definitely an issue for them last May, and I think they learned from that experience. In what I saw of their game against Illinois, they were clearly developing some of their younger players. I'll be interested to see how deep they are subbing at Centex.

STANFORD - Unfortunately, I have only seen Superfly in short spurts this year. The triumvirate of Emily Damon, Jenny Founds and Rachel Habbert are as steady as any handling corps in the game and Liz Cassel leads the cutting side. I'm curious to see who else is stepping up for Stanford. [Update: Emily Damon has been out with an elbow injury. Thanks to Ryan for the news.]

One major concern for Superfly has got to be the shift in power in their rivalry against Oregon. In a region where tiny variables could settle the difference between first in the region and not qualifying for Nationals, Superfly is developing a major mental hurdle against Fugue. Having lost to them on DGP at Regionals, they lost twice to them this past weekend. Losing again on DGP only shifts the balance further in Oregon's favor.

It is still early in the season, but unless they figure out how to produce a win over Fugue before Regionals, Stanford will not be wanting to go through them. Make no mistake about it -- these kinds of wins and losses do matter and the psychological impact should not be underestimated. On the plus side, the Stanford coaches are as well-equipped as any coaching staff to handle this challenge, and they have owned Berkeley in their two matchups this season. How Stanford matches up against Washington and UBC will be one of the major stories at the Stanford Invite.

BRITISH COLUMBIA - Don't be fooled by their poor record and lopsided losses to Oregon and Santa Barbara. The word is that they have been developing their younger players, and some ups and downs will be expected as they adjust to the post-Kira Frew era. If Regionals took place today, I would predict that Oregon and UBC would be the two teams to beat and Washington and Stanford would be battling in the game to go. Cal and Western Washington are both very solid but they are presently on the outside looking in. That's life in the Northwest.

I'm not sure if their subbing strategy changed in our pre-quarters game, but the team that played against us was every bit as good as Ottawa and Oregon. Tory Hislop played every point and I can't remember Jenny Lo taking a sub. These two contributed immensely on both sides of the disc. Their offensive game plan was based on constant disc movement and maximizing give-and-gos whenever possible. Most of their players played within themselves very well and whenever they needed a big throw, they would look to Hislop to find the weak spots in our zone.

To say the least, our loss was really difficult to take. Not only was it the third DGP loss of the weekend (our 4th of the season), we had never trailed until the final point and held an 11-8 lead. Worse for me was how much tougher each loss felt than the previous one.

I'll be ranking the Thunderbirds below Cal in the next NUMP ballot because of their head-to-head result, but I think at full strength in a winner-takes-all game, UBC is the better team right now. I don't have a sense of what UBC's depth is, and like Ottawa, this could be an issue for them at Regionals. They are certainly doing the right thing in addressing their depth concerns, but they will still need Tory Hislop and Jenny Lo fresh for their big games. Seeding is going to be crucial in the Northwest as minimizing the number of potentially grueling games is of paramount importance. Whichever team is able to keep their top line fresher for the game-to-go will have a big advantage.

TIER TWO - CAL, USC, UCLA, CARLETON

The next few teams are virtually interchangeable at this point in the season. Carleton's surprising loss to UC San Diego complicates things, and I was only able to evaluate their play in crappy conditions, but my gut tells me that they belong on this tier.

CAL - There's a decent argument for including the Pie Queens in the top tier as they have only lost to two teams this year (UCSB and Stanford). Unfortunately, they have lost in pretty convincing fashion in those four games. On the plus side, they have two quality wins against UCLA and another in their victory over UBC. I don't have details on their power pool games, so I can't really say how decisive these victories were.

Cree Howard is their most recognizable player (deservedly so), but I really like both Darragh Clancy and Lucy 'Bam Bam' Rosenbloom. They bring toughness to the Pie Queens, and they were the biggest factors in their victory over us at the SB Invite. They have a number of solid handlers, but I think a potential Achilles' Heel for them is that their handlers are susceptible to matchup problems, especially after a turnover. They can adjust to this by shifting Cree and Darragh back to the handling line, but their offense is much more effective when both are cutting upfield.

On a random note, one of their coaches, Ethan Schlenker, might be the nicest guy I've met in the coaching ranks.

USC - Objectively, I think we should be above UCLA and Carleton (despite our loss to Carleton in the 9th place game). The big knock against us right now is that we haven't won the big game. 0-4 in DGP games and losing by two to UCSB reflects the fact that we're a relatively young program and still getting used to battling the traditional top-tier programs. Looking at the upside, before our Carleton game, we were as consistent as any of the top teams at Pres Day and had lost five games by a total of six points.

I'm sure some BLU players will grumble about me placing USC above UCLA, but I'll just point to the current RRI ratings and our consistency over the course of the season. Plus, cardinal and gold will always be inherently superior to pansy blue and urine yellow. Yeah, I went there. Bring it.

Pseudo-joking aside, the USC-UCLA matchup will be one of the most interesting ones to watch this year. Though the Hellions closed the gap between them last year, the women's Ultimate version of their rivalry has never been particularly close until now. Many people I've spoken with think that the Hellions have overtaken BLU, but in a rivalry like this one, the mental hurdle remains a big one and UCLA will remain the favorites until we beat them in a meaningful game in the spring.

You see this kind of thing in sports all the time. In basketball, it took a few years for the Bulls to figure out the Pistons before they could become the dominant team of the 90s. In baseball, you've got the Red Sox and the Yankees and all the years of suffering for Boston until they figured out how to beat the Yankees in a big way. In these kinds of rivalries, it doesn't matter how you've done against other teams and who should technically win the big game. You can't get the monkey off your back if you don't wrestle with the monkey. I hope we wrestle with the monkey at the Stanford University - Ripon campus.

UCLA - As I mentioned in previous posts, the big question for them was to determine who was going to step up in Taz's shoes. The leading contender right now is Samara Leader aka Nokie. Her emergence is especially vital since it is unclear if Cailey Marsh will be returning to school. The Magic 8 Ball says that 'Signs Point to Yes', Cailey will return, but they benefit greatly from Leader's willingness to put the disc up to their young athletic receivers.

While their lopsided losses to UCSB, Ottawa and Berkeley suggest that they have a lot of work to do, I would advise against underestimating this team. Alex Korb is one cunning guy and a great motivator. Their fundamentals remain as strong as any other team out there, and there is tremendous value that comes with having been one of the dominant programs over the past few years. They could emerge as a team similar to the 2007 Stanford Superfly squad that in my estimation was weaker than the prior two squads, but still took home the trophy. If you look at their regular season results from that year, Stanford was less than spectacular; however, winning breeds winning and they turned it on at the biggest stage. While I would bet against UCLA reaching the heights of the past three years, they remain a dangerous squad and will be able to draw upon the confidence built by the first generation of BLU.

CARLETON - Yeah, they beat us on Monday, so they have a legitimate claim to being ranked above USC. I definitely had to rank them below UCLA, both because of their head-to-head and their overall performance this season. These rankings could easily be flipped after Centex so I would take them with a grain of salt.

I also want to apologize for having introduced Syzygy to Cranky Frankie. The rain coupled with the Hellions having prepped poorly with their weather gear made for a rough game. This was easily my worst coaching performance of the year, and I hate knowing that I let my team down by getting easily frustrated and making the miserable playing conditions worse. I still have a long way to go.

Kudos to Carleton as they simply out-executed us with their game plan. They fell into our mini-bracket as the other tough-luck team having lost two DGP games. Nicky Bloom, Rebecca Sheridan and Anna Snyder led their attack and their fundamentals were very impressive. In a game under these conditions, it was impossible to tell where their other strengths and weaknesses lie, but I can't imagine them not qualifying out of the Central Region. I am surprised that they lost to UCSD, but this was really early in the tourney, and I'd imagine that they haven't seen temperatures above 40 degrees in several months.

The most important thing that I took away from this game is that I finally found out what they had been saying in their end zone cheers for the past two years. Moooooooonshine! On top... on top... on top... HEY!!! I have no idea what that cheer is about, but I love it. It's strangely hypnotic and I hope that you bring it back.

This entry is long enough for now. I'll be rambling about the rest of the Pres Day field in my next post. I also hope to have a special bonus post for next week.