Seedings are coming out later today but I want to take a quick look at the teams that comprise the Nationals field. Before I do so, I want to revisit my predictions from last weekend's Regionals. Like a dumbass, I went against the Washington Corollary when I made my Northwest predictions. I desperately wanted to pick one upset in the remaining three regionals, and all three went basically according to what most would have predicted (I think the New England region was a closer call with Dartmouth, Harvard and Northeastern being the favorites).
One thing that this highlights is that qualifying for Nationals for the first time in a school's history is a big hurdle and will only become more and more difficult to do (as long as the field remains at 20 teams). After it was made known that the Southwest would get four bids, I thought it would be really easy for us. This was not the case at all. More established programs have the ability to step up and peak during the series. Both UCSD and Colorado demonstrated this.
Harvard and Middlebury (both men and women) also discovered this the hard way. Harvard had been 2-0 against Northeastern but came up short when all the chips were on the table. Middlebury had beaten Dartmouth earlier in the season but got demolished in their rematch at Regionals.
Another thing is that despite the increase in parity in the women's division this year, a clear pecking order is emerging. I see a number of distinct tiers at Nationals and I'll write about those below.
I've detailed my thoughts on what the seeds should be on RSD [link], but I thought I'd throw some other random thoughts and predictions before the pools come out.
FJR's Proposed Seedings
1. UC Santa Barbara (SW1)
2. Washington (NW1)
3. Ottawa (ME1)
4. Wisconsin (CN1)
5. Stanford (NW2)
6. Oregon (NW3)
7. Michigan (GL1)
8. North Carolina-Wilmington (AC1)
9. Colorado (SW2)
10. UCLA (SW3)
11. North Carolina (AC2)
12. Carleton (CN2)
13. Southern California (SW4)
14. Washington University (SO1)
15. St. Louis (SO2)
16. Iowa State (CN3)
17. Northeastern (NE1)
18. Dartmouth (NE2)
19. Illinois (GL2)
20. Pennsylvania (ME2)
My proposed seedings certainly do not reflect how I would rank the teams overall in terms of quality and predicted finish. I think people get really emotional about seeding and act as though their team is being disrespected. I've already gotten some flak from some folks who feel that Washington is too high (mostly fans of Wisconsin and Ottawa). I also heard from some proponents who felt that Stanford should be higher than Wisconsin. Honestly, I don't think it matters all that much who is seeded 2-7. The 1 and 2 seeds in pools B, C and D will all be very good teams and each of the 2 seeds are capable of beating the 1 seed. The big dropoff will be in pool A where UCSB will have considerably easier time in their game against the 2 seed (likely UNC-Wilmington). The tradeoff is that it means the Burning Skirts will likely have a much tougher quarterfinals opponent.
The big danger in pool play is avoiding the dangerous lower seeds. All of the likely 3 seeds (UCLA, Colorado, UNC, Carleton) are solid teams that will give problems to the top two seeds in the pool. I think the bigger concern for the top seeds comes in who draws the difficult 4 and 5 seeds. Of course, I put USC in this category, but St. Louis and Illinois also stand out as teams that could be capable of a big upset. SLU has already beaten Wisconsin twice and their style of play will give certain teams fits. Illinois is a very talented team that has the athleticism to run with almost everyone I've seen but they haven't been able to put all the pieces together. After a solid showing against Flywheel and a dominant performance in the backdoor game-to-go, the pressure should be off of Menace, and they could live up to the potential that I've seen since I first saw them at Pres Day.
One last note before I go into a look at the tiers -- I wish that the UPA had gone with power pools. The seeding wouldn't matter as much and teams would get a greater number of high-caliber games. I know the UPA is trying to highlight big matchups and allow teams to focus more on single games and enjoy the overall Nationals experience. I'm sure field space is a bit of an issue, but the power pool format is a lot of fun. There's a lot of excitement in seeing who gets to the top power pools and who emerges from the bottom.
Also, I was hoping that they would go with a full bracket of 16 instead of having byes for the top seeds. Adding another round with the potential for upsets would be fun. Granting a bye to the top teams seems unnecessary to me, and I don't think there should be any additional reward for winning a pool other than getting a better draw in bracket play.
TIER OF HEAVEN aka Ready to Play on Memorial Day
UC Santa Barbara
Ottawa
Wisconsin
I don't think there's any doubt that these three teams are primed to make it to Monday's big game. UCSB won Pres Day and Stanford and came in 2nd at Centex. Ottawa won Centex. The one knock on Wisconsin is that they haven't won a big tourney this season but that roster is loaded and ready to go.
TIER OF THE RAZOR'S EDGE aka the Fastest Way to Heaven
Washington
Stanford
Oregon
Northwest, you get a special tier of your own.
I remember some quote about the fastest way to heaven being on the edge of a razor. Whoa, morbid. Or enlightening. I tried to find this adage on the intertubes of webs but I couldn't find it anywhere. I know that Somerset Maugham's Razor's Edge has a quote from the Katha Upanishad that is supposed to help inform the reader about the title's meaning, but it's not quite the same thing that I've heard. I have not tossed out the very likely possibility that I have simply screwed up the quote and made something up that serves my needs.
Anyway, all three of the Northwest teams are no doubt in the title hunt, but it is unclear which team has the best chances in Columbus. Washington served notice at Regionals, Stanford won both previous times the Championship were decided in Columbus, and Oregon was one of the top two or three teams in the division during the regular season. All three have beaten each other once, and all three will be carrying a lot of confidence in Ohio.
I'M ALL ALONE *TIER* aka the Wildcard
Michigan
When you look at Flywheel's season, there's only one day where they lost to anyone not named Wisconsin. On the first day of Centex, they found themselves at the bottom of the A Pool after notching three losses by fairly slim margins to UCSB, Carleton and UNC. Some Flywheel fans declared that they were a juggernaut and should be considered one of the top two or three teams in the division. Fans are apt to write and say crazy things but Michigan is a very talented team. I don't think they are a good bet to rise above the teams in the top two tiers but I wouldn't be surprised to see them take down 1 or 2 of them and make a run to the semifinals.
FRANKLY, MY TIER, I DON'T GIVE A DAMN WHERE YOU PUT US aka Beware These Teams
UCLA
Colorado
USC
UNC-Wilmington
UNC
St. Louis
Carleton
Triple pun!
Of course, I'm putting the other three Southwest teams here. UCLA has the knowhow to peak at Nationals. They are becoming the Stanford of the Southwest (just don't compare the number of championships). Their biggest win this season was over UCSB at Sectionals, and BLU would love nothing more than to exact revenge by taking out the Burning Skirts when it counts the most.
Colorado is the most mercurial of the 20 teams. I think they match up particularly well with a team like Stanford. Kali's style of play is effective at disrupting system-type of offenses, and they will be hungry to prove that their performance at Regionals wasn't just the benefit of homefield advantage. They play with a lot of emotion and if they can harness that emotion and maintain consistency in their games, I think a quarterfinals appearance is within reach.
USC is one of three newcomers to the big show (Iowa State and St. Louis are the other two). I love this team. I can't write enough about them. I love the way that they play. The head coach talks too much and writes some crazy things. Go HoT Pink! Aliens are the new religion for uninspired screenwriters. My mother is a fish.
Of the two Carolina teams, I like UNC's chances of performing better than Wilmington's (despite UNC-W having a 4-0 record over UNC). Having been to the big show last year, UNC will be better accustomed to dealing with the pressure of performing well. Also, Pleiades is built to perform more consistently, and I think Wilmington's power game depends too much on a couple key players. The top West Coast and Midwest teams will know how to handle Wilmington's vertical game.
I would love to see St. Louis end up in a pool with Element, Bella Donna or the Burning Skirts. Wisconsin should be used to their style of play by now, but they do have a losing record against SLULU. I think St. Louis' slow-down offense could be really disruptive to teams that thrive on the deep game.
Somewhat like Colorado, Carleton has had a bit of an up-and-down season. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect from Syzygy. After losing in the quarterfinals the past two years, this year was expected to be a rebuilding year. I would bet on them making the pre-quarters and falling just short of making the next round.
TIERRA DEL FUEGO aka Angry at FJR for Not Ranking Them Higher
Wash U. (WUWU)
Northeastern
Dartmouth
Iowa State
Illinois
UPenn
The only team on this tier that I have seen up close this year is Illinois. I saw Northeastern briefly at Pres Day, and I felt the electric buzz in the air coming from Dartmouth's jerseys at Centex. One might think that this makes my judgment somewhere between unqualified and head-up-my-ass. I am basing these rankings on previous results, word of mouth from my trusted sources and the entrails of the goat that I slaughtered last night. According to the Idiot's Guide to Prognostication and Other Practical Applications of Santeria, these methods are actually superior to witnessing a team's play in person.
All of the teams here are capable of beating the teams on the prior tier, but I don't see them upsetting anyone above that. The one exception might be Wash U. Having clearly gotten the better of St. Louis in their recent matchups, Washington could be this year's Michigan State. [Last year, Michigan State dropped Texas after Melee had upset Washington and nearly taken out Bella Donna. Texas went from potentially winning the pool on point differential to becoming the bottom of the pool and falling completely out of contention.]
The draw means a lot for each of these teams' chances of making it to the pre-quarters, but my best guess is that Washington and Illinois are the most likely to advance past pool play.
Once the pools come out, I'll take a more detailed look at each team and offer my predictions.
No comments:
Post a Comment