Tuesday, May 12, 2009
An Open Call for Contributors
In the interest of adding more voices to this blog, I am looking for any writers who are interested in contributing and furthering the discussion on women's collegiate Ultimate. Please contact me at frho@sbcglobal.net. I'll likely want to see some kind of writing sample -- at the very least, send me a good joke or something that gives me a sense of who you are.
Monday, May 11, 2009
The College Championships - An Early Look
Seedings are coming out later today but I want to take a quick look at the teams that comprise the Nationals field. Before I do so, I want to revisit my predictions from last weekend's Regionals. Like a dumbass, I went against the Washington Corollary when I made my Northwest predictions. I desperately wanted to pick one upset in the remaining three regionals, and all three went basically according to what most would have predicted (I think the New England region was a closer call with Dartmouth, Harvard and Northeastern being the favorites).
One thing that this highlights is that qualifying for Nationals for the first time in a school's history is a big hurdle and will only become more and more difficult to do (as long as the field remains at 20 teams). After it was made known that the Southwest would get four bids, I thought it would be really easy for us. This was not the case at all. More established programs have the ability to step up and peak during the series. Both UCSD and Colorado demonstrated this.
Harvard and Middlebury (both men and women) also discovered this the hard way. Harvard had been 2-0 against Northeastern but came up short when all the chips were on the table. Middlebury had beaten Dartmouth earlier in the season but got demolished in their rematch at Regionals.
Another thing is that despite the increase in parity in the women's division this year, a clear pecking order is emerging. I see a number of distinct tiers at Nationals and I'll write about those below.
I've detailed my thoughts on what the seeds should be on RSD [link], but I thought I'd throw some other random thoughts and predictions before the pools come out.
FJR's Proposed Seedings
1. UC Santa Barbara (SW1)
2. Washington (NW1)
3. Ottawa (ME1)
4. Wisconsin (CN1)
5. Stanford (NW2)
6. Oregon (NW3)
7. Michigan (GL1)
8. North Carolina-Wilmington (AC1)
9. Colorado (SW2)
10. UCLA (SW3)
11. North Carolina (AC2)
12. Carleton (CN2)
13. Southern California (SW4)
14. Washington University (SO1)
15. St. Louis (SO2)
16. Iowa State (CN3)
17. Northeastern (NE1)
18. Dartmouth (NE2)
19. Illinois (GL2)
20. Pennsylvania (ME2)
My proposed seedings certainly do not reflect how I would rank the teams overall in terms of quality and predicted finish. I think people get really emotional about seeding and act as though their team is being disrespected. I've already gotten some flak from some folks who feel that Washington is too high (mostly fans of Wisconsin and Ottawa). I also heard from some proponents who felt that Stanford should be higher than Wisconsin. Honestly, I don't think it matters all that much who is seeded 2-7. The 1 and 2 seeds in pools B, C and D will all be very good teams and each of the 2 seeds are capable of beating the 1 seed. The big dropoff will be in pool A where UCSB will have considerably easier time in their game against the 2 seed (likely UNC-Wilmington). The tradeoff is that it means the Burning Skirts will likely have a much tougher quarterfinals opponent.
The big danger in pool play is avoiding the dangerous lower seeds. All of the likely 3 seeds (UCLA, Colorado, UNC, Carleton) are solid teams that will give problems to the top two seeds in the pool. I think the bigger concern for the top seeds comes in who draws the difficult 4 and 5 seeds. Of course, I put USC in this category, but St. Louis and Illinois also stand out as teams that could be capable of a big upset. SLU has already beaten Wisconsin twice and their style of play will give certain teams fits. Illinois is a very talented team that has the athleticism to run with almost everyone I've seen but they haven't been able to put all the pieces together. After a solid showing against Flywheel and a dominant performance in the backdoor game-to-go, the pressure should be off of Menace, and they could live up to the potential that I've seen since I first saw them at Pres Day.
One last note before I go into a look at the tiers -- I wish that the UPA had gone with power pools. The seeding wouldn't matter as much and teams would get a greater number of high-caliber games. I know the UPA is trying to highlight big matchups and allow teams to focus more on single games and enjoy the overall Nationals experience. I'm sure field space is a bit of an issue, but the power pool format is a lot of fun. There's a lot of excitement in seeing who gets to the top power pools and who emerges from the bottom.
Also, I was hoping that they would go with a full bracket of 16 instead of having byes for the top seeds. Adding another round with the potential for upsets would be fun. Granting a bye to the top teams seems unnecessary to me, and I don't think there should be any additional reward for winning a pool other than getting a better draw in bracket play.
TIER OF HEAVEN aka Ready to Play on Memorial Day
UC Santa Barbara
Ottawa
Wisconsin
I don't think there's any doubt that these three teams are primed to make it to Monday's big game. UCSB won Pres Day and Stanford and came in 2nd at Centex. Ottawa won Centex. The one knock on Wisconsin is that they haven't won a big tourney this season but that roster is loaded and ready to go.
TIER OF THE RAZOR'S EDGE aka the Fastest Way to Heaven
Washington
Stanford
Oregon
Northwest, you get a special tier of your own.
I remember some quote about the fastest way to heaven being on the edge of a razor. Whoa, morbid. Or enlightening. I tried to find this adage on the intertubes of webs but I couldn't find it anywhere. I know that Somerset Maugham's Razor's Edge has a quote from the Katha Upanishad that is supposed to help inform the reader about the title's meaning, but it's not quite the same thing that I've heard. I have not tossed out the very likely possibility that I have simply screwed up the quote and made something up that serves my needs.
Anyway, all three of the Northwest teams are no doubt in the title hunt, but it is unclear which team has the best chances in Columbus. Washington served notice at Regionals, Stanford won both previous times the Championship were decided in Columbus, and Oregon was one of the top two or three teams in the division during the regular season. All three have beaten each other once, and all three will be carrying a lot of confidence in Ohio.
I'M ALL ALONE *TIER* aka the Wildcard
Michigan
When you look at Flywheel's season, there's only one day where they lost to anyone not named Wisconsin. On the first day of Centex, they found themselves at the bottom of the A Pool after notching three losses by fairly slim margins to UCSB, Carleton and UNC. Some Flywheel fans declared that they were a juggernaut and should be considered one of the top two or three teams in the division. Fans are apt to write and say crazy things but Michigan is a very talented team. I don't think they are a good bet to rise above the teams in the top two tiers but I wouldn't be surprised to see them take down 1 or 2 of them and make a run to the semifinals.
FRANKLY, MY TIER, I DON'T GIVE A DAMN WHERE YOU PUT US aka Beware These Teams
UCLA
Colorado
USC
UNC-Wilmington
UNC
St. Louis
Carleton
Triple pun!
Of course, I'm putting the other three Southwest teams here. UCLA has the knowhow to peak at Nationals. They are becoming the Stanford of the Southwest (just don't compare the number of championships). Their biggest win this season was over UCSB at Sectionals, and BLU would love nothing more than to exact revenge by taking out the Burning Skirts when it counts the most.
Colorado is the most mercurial of the 20 teams. I think they match up particularly well with a team like Stanford. Kali's style of play is effective at disrupting system-type of offenses, and they will be hungry to prove that their performance at Regionals wasn't just the benefit of homefield advantage. They play with a lot of emotion and if they can harness that emotion and maintain consistency in their games, I think a quarterfinals appearance is within reach.
USC is one of three newcomers to the big show (Iowa State and St. Louis are the other two). I love this team. I can't write enough about them. I love the way that they play. The head coach talks too much and writes some crazy things. Go HoT Pink! Aliens are the new religion for uninspired screenwriters. My mother is a fish.
Of the two Carolina teams, I like UNC's chances of performing better than Wilmington's (despite UNC-W having a 4-0 record over UNC). Having been to the big show last year, UNC will be better accustomed to dealing with the pressure of performing well. Also, Pleiades is built to perform more consistently, and I think Wilmington's power game depends too much on a couple key players. The top West Coast and Midwest teams will know how to handle Wilmington's vertical game.
I would love to see St. Louis end up in a pool with Element, Bella Donna or the Burning Skirts. Wisconsin should be used to their style of play by now, but they do have a losing record against SLULU. I think St. Louis' slow-down offense could be really disruptive to teams that thrive on the deep game.
Somewhat like Colorado, Carleton has had a bit of an up-and-down season. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect from Syzygy. After losing in the quarterfinals the past two years, this year was expected to be a rebuilding year. I would bet on them making the pre-quarters and falling just short of making the next round.
TIERRA DEL FUEGO aka Angry at FJR for Not Ranking Them Higher
Wash U. (WUWU)
Northeastern
Dartmouth
Iowa State
Illinois
UPenn
The only team on this tier that I have seen up close this year is Illinois. I saw Northeastern briefly at Pres Day, and I felt the electric buzz in the air coming from Dartmouth's jerseys at Centex. One might think that this makes my judgment somewhere between unqualified and head-up-my-ass. I am basing these rankings on previous results, word of mouth from my trusted sources and the entrails of the goat that I slaughtered last night. According to the Idiot's Guide to Prognostication and Other Practical Applications of Santeria, these methods are actually superior to witnessing a team's play in person.
All of the teams here are capable of beating the teams on the prior tier, but I don't see them upsetting anyone above that. The one exception might be Wash U. Having clearly gotten the better of St. Louis in their recent matchups, Washington could be this year's Michigan State. [Last year, Michigan State dropped Texas after Melee had upset Washington and nearly taken out Bella Donna. Texas went from potentially winning the pool on point differential to becoming the bottom of the pool and falling completely out of contention.]
The draw means a lot for each of these teams' chances of making it to the pre-quarters, but my best guess is that Washington and Illinois are the most likely to advance past pool play.
Once the pools come out, I'll take a more detailed look at each team and offer my predictions.
One thing that this highlights is that qualifying for Nationals for the first time in a school's history is a big hurdle and will only become more and more difficult to do (as long as the field remains at 20 teams). After it was made known that the Southwest would get four bids, I thought it would be really easy for us. This was not the case at all. More established programs have the ability to step up and peak during the series. Both UCSD and Colorado demonstrated this.
Harvard and Middlebury (both men and women) also discovered this the hard way. Harvard had been 2-0 against Northeastern but came up short when all the chips were on the table. Middlebury had beaten Dartmouth earlier in the season but got demolished in their rematch at Regionals.
Another thing is that despite the increase in parity in the women's division this year, a clear pecking order is emerging. I see a number of distinct tiers at Nationals and I'll write about those below.
I've detailed my thoughts on what the seeds should be on RSD [link], but I thought I'd throw some other random thoughts and predictions before the pools come out.
FJR's Proposed Seedings
1. UC Santa Barbara (SW1)
2. Washington (NW1)
3. Ottawa (ME1)
4. Wisconsin (CN1)
5. Stanford (NW2)
6. Oregon (NW3)
7. Michigan (GL1)
8. North Carolina-Wilmington (AC1)
9. Colorado (SW2)
10. UCLA (SW3)
11. North Carolina (AC2)
12. Carleton (CN2)
13. Southern California (SW4)
14. Washington University (SO1)
15. St. Louis (SO2)
16. Iowa State (CN3)
17. Northeastern (NE1)
18. Dartmouth (NE2)
19. Illinois (GL2)
20. Pennsylvania (ME2)
My proposed seedings certainly do not reflect how I would rank the teams overall in terms of quality and predicted finish. I think people get really emotional about seeding and act as though their team is being disrespected. I've already gotten some flak from some folks who feel that Washington is too high (mostly fans of Wisconsin and Ottawa). I also heard from some proponents who felt that Stanford should be higher than Wisconsin. Honestly, I don't think it matters all that much who is seeded 2-7. The 1 and 2 seeds in pools B, C and D will all be very good teams and each of the 2 seeds are capable of beating the 1 seed. The big dropoff will be in pool A where UCSB will have considerably easier time in their game against the 2 seed (likely UNC-Wilmington). The tradeoff is that it means the Burning Skirts will likely have a much tougher quarterfinals opponent.
The big danger in pool play is avoiding the dangerous lower seeds. All of the likely 3 seeds (UCLA, Colorado, UNC, Carleton) are solid teams that will give problems to the top two seeds in the pool. I think the bigger concern for the top seeds comes in who draws the difficult 4 and 5 seeds. Of course, I put USC in this category, but St. Louis and Illinois also stand out as teams that could be capable of a big upset. SLU has already beaten Wisconsin twice and their style of play will give certain teams fits. Illinois is a very talented team that has the athleticism to run with almost everyone I've seen but they haven't been able to put all the pieces together. After a solid showing against Flywheel and a dominant performance in the backdoor game-to-go, the pressure should be off of Menace, and they could live up to the potential that I've seen since I first saw them at Pres Day.
One last note before I go into a look at the tiers -- I wish that the UPA had gone with power pools. The seeding wouldn't matter as much and teams would get a greater number of high-caliber games. I know the UPA is trying to highlight big matchups and allow teams to focus more on single games and enjoy the overall Nationals experience. I'm sure field space is a bit of an issue, but the power pool format is a lot of fun. There's a lot of excitement in seeing who gets to the top power pools and who emerges from the bottom.
Also, I was hoping that they would go with a full bracket of 16 instead of having byes for the top seeds. Adding another round with the potential for upsets would be fun. Granting a bye to the top teams seems unnecessary to me, and I don't think there should be any additional reward for winning a pool other than getting a better draw in bracket play.
TIER OF HEAVEN aka Ready to Play on Memorial Day
UC Santa Barbara
Ottawa
Wisconsin
I don't think there's any doubt that these three teams are primed to make it to Monday's big game. UCSB won Pres Day and Stanford and came in 2nd at Centex. Ottawa won Centex. The one knock on Wisconsin is that they haven't won a big tourney this season but that roster is loaded and ready to go.
TIER OF THE RAZOR'S EDGE aka the Fastest Way to Heaven
Washington
Stanford
Oregon
Northwest, you get a special tier of your own.
I remember some quote about the fastest way to heaven being on the edge of a razor. Whoa, morbid. Or enlightening. I tried to find this adage on the intertubes of webs but I couldn't find it anywhere. I know that Somerset Maugham's Razor's Edge has a quote from the Katha Upanishad that is supposed to help inform the reader about the title's meaning, but it's not quite the same thing that I've heard. I have not tossed out the very likely possibility that I have simply screwed up the quote and made something up that serves my needs.
Anyway, all three of the Northwest teams are no doubt in the title hunt, but it is unclear which team has the best chances in Columbus. Washington served notice at Regionals, Stanford won both previous times the Championship were decided in Columbus, and Oregon was one of the top two or three teams in the division during the regular season. All three have beaten each other once, and all three will be carrying a lot of confidence in Ohio.
I'M ALL ALONE *TIER* aka the Wildcard
Michigan
When you look at Flywheel's season, there's only one day where they lost to anyone not named Wisconsin. On the first day of Centex, they found themselves at the bottom of the A Pool after notching three losses by fairly slim margins to UCSB, Carleton and UNC. Some Flywheel fans declared that they were a juggernaut and should be considered one of the top two or three teams in the division. Fans are apt to write and say crazy things but Michigan is a very talented team. I don't think they are a good bet to rise above the teams in the top two tiers but I wouldn't be surprised to see them take down 1 or 2 of them and make a run to the semifinals.
FRANKLY, MY TIER, I DON'T GIVE A DAMN WHERE YOU PUT US aka Beware These Teams
UCLA
Colorado
USC
UNC-Wilmington
UNC
St. Louis
Carleton
Triple pun!
Of course, I'm putting the other three Southwest teams here. UCLA has the knowhow to peak at Nationals. They are becoming the Stanford of the Southwest (just don't compare the number of championships). Their biggest win this season was over UCSB at Sectionals, and BLU would love nothing more than to exact revenge by taking out the Burning Skirts when it counts the most.
Colorado is the most mercurial of the 20 teams. I think they match up particularly well with a team like Stanford. Kali's style of play is effective at disrupting system-type of offenses, and they will be hungry to prove that their performance at Regionals wasn't just the benefit of homefield advantage. They play with a lot of emotion and if they can harness that emotion and maintain consistency in their games, I think a quarterfinals appearance is within reach.
USC is one of three newcomers to the big show (Iowa State and St. Louis are the other two). I love this team. I can't write enough about them. I love the way that they play. The head coach talks too much and writes some crazy things. Go HoT Pink! Aliens are the new religion for uninspired screenwriters. My mother is a fish.
Of the two Carolina teams, I like UNC's chances of performing better than Wilmington's (despite UNC-W having a 4-0 record over UNC). Having been to the big show last year, UNC will be better accustomed to dealing with the pressure of performing well. Also, Pleiades is built to perform more consistently, and I think Wilmington's power game depends too much on a couple key players. The top West Coast and Midwest teams will know how to handle Wilmington's vertical game.
I would love to see St. Louis end up in a pool with Element, Bella Donna or the Burning Skirts. Wisconsin should be used to their style of play by now, but they do have a losing record against SLULU. I think St. Louis' slow-down offense could be really disruptive to teams that thrive on the deep game.
Somewhat like Colorado, Carleton has had a bit of an up-and-down season. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect from Syzygy. After losing in the quarterfinals the past two years, this year was expected to be a rebuilding year. I would bet on them making the pre-quarters and falling just short of making the next round.
TIERRA DEL FUEGO aka Angry at FJR for Not Ranking Them Higher
Wash U. (WUWU)
Northeastern
Dartmouth
Iowa State
Illinois
UPenn
The only team on this tier that I have seen up close this year is Illinois. I saw Northeastern briefly at Pres Day, and I felt the electric buzz in the air coming from Dartmouth's jerseys at Centex. One might think that this makes my judgment somewhere between unqualified and head-up-my-ass. I am basing these rankings on previous results, word of mouth from my trusted sources and the entrails of the goat that I slaughtered last night. According to the Idiot's Guide to Prognostication and Other Practical Applications of Santeria, these methods are actually superior to witnessing a team's play in person.
All of the teams here are capable of beating the teams on the prior tier, but I don't see them upsetting anyone above that. The one exception might be Wash U. Having clearly gotten the better of St. Louis in their recent matchups, Washington could be this year's Michigan State. [Last year, Michigan State dropped Texas after Melee had upset Washington and nearly taken out Bella Donna. Texas went from potentially winning the pool on point differential to becoming the bottom of the pool and falling completely out of contention.]
The draw means a lot for each of these teams' chances of making it to the pre-quarters, but my best guess is that Washington and Illinois are the most likely to advance past pool play.
Once the pools come out, I'll take a more detailed look at each team and offer my predictions.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Regionals Update - Northwest
A few wacky upsets in pool play and Washington defeating Oregon has resulted in a really interesting looking quarterfinals round.
UW vs. Humboldt - The Hags gave Cal a run for their money in pool play, but Element should be able to take care of business quickly in this game.
UBC vs. Davis - The Thunderbirds get the benefit of the draw with what should be the most lopsided matchup of the quarters. Both UW and UBC should be well-rested for the almost certain semifinals matchup.
Oregon vs. Cal - The bottom half of the bracket is rough. At least both winners will have had tough games before semifinals. Amazingly, these two teams haven't faced each other this year. Oregon should be the heavy favorite.
Stanford vs. Western Washington - Stanford's reward for winning all their games is a matchup with Chaos. Ouch. Superfly beat them in their one and only matchup this year.
The losers of the bottom half of the quarterfinals will face each other in an elimination game. That seems ridiculous when the other half of the backdoor will feature two considerably weaker teams. I think the reseeding creates unnecessary problems in this particular format and frankly, I'm not sure that the crossover matchups between the 1 seeds is necessary. I'm guessing that it is done to balance out the number of games, but I think it causes more potential problems than whatever benefits it is intended to bring.
The real problem here is that whoever wins the bottom two quarters has a big advantage because even if they lose in the semis, they will have a fairly easy matchup before the backdoor game-to-go. What will likely be a very interesting UW-UBC grudge match in the semis will mean a lot for the winner and loser. Win and you have a bid to Nationals; lose and you have to go through Western Washington or Cal (or if there's an upset, Oregon or Stanford) in order to get to the game-to-go.
The other semis will likely be another grudge match between Oregon and Stanford. If Cal and/or Western Washington has the game of their lives in the quarters, they will create havoc with the bracket and make their path to Nationals considerably easier.
I'm willing to bet a good amount of money that whoever loses the semis in that half of the bracket will still end up winning the game-to-go.
All of this further underscores what a tough, tough region the Northwest is this year. I think the Southwest will look something like this next year, but that's another post for another time.
For those who hated my predictions, it seems only fitting that UW and UBC will face each other with so much riding on the line. Sure, I think Element is favored in that matchup, but I think it'll be an interesting game to follow.
UW vs. Humboldt - The Hags gave Cal a run for their money in pool play, but Element should be able to take care of business quickly in this game.
UBC vs. Davis - The Thunderbirds get the benefit of the draw with what should be the most lopsided matchup of the quarters. Both UW and UBC should be well-rested for the almost certain semifinals matchup.
Oregon vs. Cal - The bottom half of the bracket is rough. At least both winners will have had tough games before semifinals. Amazingly, these two teams haven't faced each other this year. Oregon should be the heavy favorite.
Stanford vs. Western Washington - Stanford's reward for winning all their games is a matchup with Chaos. Ouch. Superfly beat them in their one and only matchup this year.
The losers of the bottom half of the quarterfinals will face each other in an elimination game. That seems ridiculous when the other half of the backdoor will feature two considerably weaker teams. I think the reseeding creates unnecessary problems in this particular format and frankly, I'm not sure that the crossover matchups between the 1 seeds is necessary. I'm guessing that it is done to balance out the number of games, but I think it causes more potential problems than whatever benefits it is intended to bring.
The real problem here is that whoever wins the bottom two quarters has a big advantage because even if they lose in the semis, they will have a fairly easy matchup before the backdoor game-to-go. What will likely be a very interesting UW-UBC grudge match in the semis will mean a lot for the winner and loser. Win and you have a bid to Nationals; lose and you have to go through Western Washington or Cal (or if there's an upset, Oregon or Stanford) in order to get to the game-to-go.
The other semis will likely be another grudge match between Oregon and Stanford. If Cal and/or Western Washington has the game of their lives in the quarters, they will create havoc with the bracket and make their path to Nationals considerably easier.
I'm willing to bet a good amount of money that whoever loses the semis in that half of the bracket will still end up winning the game-to-go.
All of this further underscores what a tough, tough region the Northwest is this year. I think the Southwest will look something like this next year, but that's another post for another time.
For those who hated my predictions, it seems only fitting that UW and UBC will face each other with so much riding on the line. Sure, I think Element is favored in that matchup, but I think it'll be an interesting game to follow.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Regionals Preview - New England
I thought about comparing the New England region to the Corleone family, but I want to save that for another day. I think the most appropriate comparison is to the pilots in Top Gun. Yup, I'm going there.
Of course, the folks in New England would even agree that the region is not the best of the best. In fact, the two bid-winners are likely to end up with 5 seeds at Nationals. Who cares? This region has five contenders and could be the most wide open of all the regions. Last weekend featured very few surprises and few true upsets. In stark contrast, this weekend is very difficult to predict. Close your eyes and let Kenny Loggins rev up your engines. It's time to go to the dan-ja zooooone.
NEW ENGLAND (2 Bids)
Before I start with the analysis of each team, I wanted to mention that the New England region is the only one that will be employing the double elimination format. I grew up with this format, so there's definitely a soft spot there. It's not practical for big regions, and it is heavily dependent on accurate seeding. If RCs would add more consolation games, I think it would be an interesting option for regions like the Metro East, Atlantic Coast and Great Lakes, but again, the seeding issue is a big one.
Anyway, the format is set for New England, and the contending teams will first be looking to ensure that they are playing on Sunday. With five legitimate contenders, the Tufts/New England matchup is going to be a key game with the loser looking at a tough road through the back door. Look for the top five seeds to get to Sunday and either Brandeis or Boston College rounding out the group.
The Model Pilot (aka Iceman played by Val Kilmer) - Harvard. They are the top seed led by Lucy Barnes of Brute Squad. Coached by Jeff Listfield, Blake Spitz and Jessica Blanton, the Quasars (Quasar? the Quasar?) are strong on fundamentals and embody everything you would expect from anything with the Harvard label. Sure, they seem like they do everything by-the-book, and you'd like to see them as more of the 'Top Secret' version of Val Kilmer, but they don't care. They want to win the Region and be Top Gun. Nothing else will suffice.
The Maverick (aka Maverick played by Tom McCain Cruise) - Northeastern. They are just lurking there at number 5. They have gone through their ups and downs and injuries to Courtney Moores and Stephanie Barker certainly account for some of their struggles. Both are expected to be back for this weekend. Laura Cedro has stepped up her game in their absence and could be the difference maker in their run at one of the bids. They will need to forget about Goose (Centex and previous losses to Harvard) and simply engage... Engage... ENGAGE, MAVERICK!!!
The Mentor (aka Viper played by Tom Skerritt) - Dartmouth. Princess Layout had a strong run of four straight appearances at Nationals from 2004-2007 that was broken last year. They are hungry and they will be ready to school all the young ones.
The Stealthy Star (aka Merlin played by Tim Robbins) - Middlebury. The amazing thing about Top Gun is that the best actor in the film, Tim Robbins, is just kind of in the background. Little was known about this Merlin guy. Sure, Tom Cruise was Mr. Bankable after Top Gun, but Tim Robbins is considerably more respected for his acting skills and his choice of causes (liberalism vs. Scientology, you decide). The Lady Pranksters have a win over Dartmouth at Southerns but little else is really know about them.
The Tough-nosed Veteran (aka Jester played by Michael Ironside) - Tufts. The perennial contender coached by Sangwha Hong has been on a steady rise and looks ready to peak at Regionals. Their aggressive offense relies on the Marie Alexander-Kate McCaffrey connection. Maverick was able to get the best of Jester but only after violating the hard top and creating some controversy. Perhaps this predestines a controversial game that should be the best match of the second round.
The Wingman that You Love But You Know is Dead in the Water (aka Goose played by Anthony Edwards) - Brown. Yikes, this sounds harsh, but how bad is it really to be Goose? He gets to shag the considerably hotter-than-Kelly-McGillis Meg Ryan (before she became the Queen of Romantic Comedies), he sports a goofy porn-stache and gets away with it, he was known as the likable and relatively cool Nerd, and he came back from the dead to have a great run on ER when it was a show that people actually watched. Brown has been a strong team in the past, and they are still coming back from the dead. Look for them to have their ER run starting next year. [Side note: I almost forgot that I saw Anthony Edwards on one of my flights. He was with his family and seemed like a great dad. Being in LA, I've seen my fair share of celebrities, but I prefer seeing the lesser knowns who seem like real people.]
The Character Guy that Stands Out (aka Stinger played by James Tolkan) - Brandeis. Who's Stinger? He's that guy on the aircraft carrier that likes to chew out Maverick and Goose and sends them off to Top Gun. Tolkan is one of the great character actors of the 80s and was probably best known for being the principal in the Back to the Future series. Like Stinger, Brandeis isn't going to be the star of New England regionals, but they are looking at a realistic shot at making the second day. If they upset Vermont in the first round, they will have a tough matchup against Dartmouth in the 2nd round. They would likely draw the loser of Brown and Wesleyan, another winnable game. Then they would likely run into Boston College with the winner advancing to Sunday (Brandeis and Boston College are 1-1 vs. each other). I've heard that this Greg Connelly character is kind of a good coach. Team USA, Ironside, Brute Squad, UBC... seeing him on the other sideline must be like how I feel when I have to match wits with Steve Dugan.
Who Makes It to Sunday: Harvard, Dartmouth, Northeastern, Tufts, Middlebury, Brandeis (gotta pick one upset here)
Who Goes to Columbus: Dartmouth, Northeastern
Tough Luck Loser: Harvard
My Take: In the first round, look for Brandeis to upset Vermont in the first round in order to facilitate the eagerly anticipated Dory (Ziperstein) vs. Rohre (Titcomb) matchup happens. If this were the NBA, I guarantee that the RCs would put Bennett Salvatore and Joey Crawford in as observers and make sure that all those close in/out calls went Brandeis' way. Dory vs. Rohre. Make it happen.
Other than the Dory vs. Rohre individual matchup in the second round, look for Tufts vs. Northeastern and Middlebury vs. BC to be the key games. In the semis, I'm picking Harvard over Northeastern and Dartmouth over Middlebury.
In the backdoor, Northeastern crushes Brandeis, Tufts handles Boston College, Northeastern squeaks by Tufts again and faces Harvard after they've had a barnburner in finals. Both teams are exhausted and battle each other to double game point. Jason Adams and Kayla Burnim are ready for this moment and blast Wagner over the sound system. Northeastern is inspired and drops napalm on Harvard for the one point victory. The Valkyries declare that Harvard can be their wingman anytime, hop on their Harleys and ride off into the sunset.
Of course, the folks in New England would even agree that the region is not the best of the best. In fact, the two bid-winners are likely to end up with 5 seeds at Nationals. Who cares? This region has five contenders and could be the most wide open of all the regions. Last weekend featured very few surprises and few true upsets. In stark contrast, this weekend is very difficult to predict. Close your eyes and let Kenny Loggins rev up your engines. It's time to go to the dan-ja zooooone.
NEW ENGLAND (2 Bids)
Before I start with the analysis of each team, I wanted to mention that the New England region is the only one that will be employing the double elimination format. I grew up with this format, so there's definitely a soft spot there. It's not practical for big regions, and it is heavily dependent on accurate seeding. If RCs would add more consolation games, I think it would be an interesting option for regions like the Metro East, Atlantic Coast and Great Lakes, but again, the seeding issue is a big one.
Anyway, the format is set for New England, and the contending teams will first be looking to ensure that they are playing on Sunday. With five legitimate contenders, the Tufts/New England matchup is going to be a key game with the loser looking at a tough road through the back door. Look for the top five seeds to get to Sunday and either Brandeis or Boston College rounding out the group.
The Model Pilot (aka Iceman played by Val Kilmer) - Harvard. They are the top seed led by Lucy Barnes of Brute Squad. Coached by Jeff Listfield, Blake Spitz and Jessica Blanton, the Quasars (Quasar? the Quasar?) are strong on fundamentals and embody everything you would expect from anything with the Harvard label. Sure, they seem like they do everything by-the-book, and you'd like to see them as more of the 'Top Secret' version of Val Kilmer, but they don't care. They want to win the Region and be Top Gun. Nothing else will suffice.
The Maverick (aka Maverick played by Tom McCain Cruise) - Northeastern. They are just lurking there at number 5. They have gone through their ups and downs and injuries to Courtney Moores and Stephanie Barker certainly account for some of their struggles. Both are expected to be back for this weekend. Laura Cedro has stepped up her game in their absence and could be the difference maker in their run at one of the bids. They will need to forget about Goose (Centex and previous losses to Harvard) and simply engage... Engage... ENGAGE, MAVERICK!!!
The Mentor (aka Viper played by Tom Skerritt) - Dartmouth. Princess Layout had a strong run of four straight appearances at Nationals from 2004-2007 that was broken last year. They are hungry and they will be ready to school all the young ones.
The Stealthy Star (aka Merlin played by Tim Robbins) - Middlebury. The amazing thing about Top Gun is that the best actor in the film, Tim Robbins, is just kind of in the background. Little was known about this Merlin guy. Sure, Tom Cruise was Mr. Bankable after Top Gun, but Tim Robbins is considerably more respected for his acting skills and his choice of causes (liberalism vs. Scientology, you decide). The Lady Pranksters have a win over Dartmouth at Southerns but little else is really know about them.
The Tough-nosed Veteran (aka Jester played by Michael Ironside) - Tufts. The perennial contender coached by Sangwha Hong has been on a steady rise and looks ready to peak at Regionals. Their aggressive offense relies on the Marie Alexander-Kate McCaffrey connection. Maverick was able to get the best of Jester but only after violating the hard top and creating some controversy. Perhaps this predestines a controversial game that should be the best match of the second round.
The Wingman that You Love But You Know is Dead in the Water (aka Goose played by Anthony Edwards) - Brown. Yikes, this sounds harsh, but how bad is it really to be Goose? He gets to shag the considerably hotter-than-Kelly-McGillis Meg Ryan (before she became the Queen of Romantic Comedies), he sports a goofy porn-stache and gets away with it, he was known as the likable and relatively cool Nerd, and he came back from the dead to have a great run on ER when it was a show that people actually watched. Brown has been a strong team in the past, and they are still coming back from the dead. Look for them to have their ER run starting next year. [Side note: I almost forgot that I saw Anthony Edwards on one of my flights. He was with his family and seemed like a great dad. Being in LA, I've seen my fair share of celebrities, but I prefer seeing the lesser knowns who seem like real people.]
The Character Guy that Stands Out (aka Stinger played by James Tolkan) - Brandeis. Who's Stinger? He's that guy on the aircraft carrier that likes to chew out Maverick and Goose and sends them off to Top Gun. Tolkan is one of the great character actors of the 80s and was probably best known for being the principal in the Back to the Future series. Like Stinger, Brandeis isn't going to be the star of New England regionals, but they are looking at a realistic shot at making the second day. If they upset Vermont in the first round, they will have a tough matchup against Dartmouth in the 2nd round. They would likely draw the loser of Brown and Wesleyan, another winnable game. Then they would likely run into Boston College with the winner advancing to Sunday (Brandeis and Boston College are 1-1 vs. each other). I've heard that this Greg Connelly character is kind of a good coach. Team USA, Ironside, Brute Squad, UBC... seeing him on the other sideline must be like how I feel when I have to match wits with Steve Dugan.
Who Makes It to Sunday: Harvard, Dartmouth, Northeastern, Tufts, Middlebury, Brandeis (gotta pick one upset here)
Who Goes to Columbus: Dartmouth, Northeastern
Tough Luck Loser: Harvard
My Take: In the first round, look for Brandeis to upset Vermont in the first round in order to facilitate the eagerly anticipated Dory (Ziperstein) vs. Rohre (Titcomb) matchup happens. If this were the NBA, I guarantee that the RCs would put Bennett Salvatore and Joey Crawford in as observers and make sure that all those close in/out calls went Brandeis' way. Dory vs. Rohre. Make it happen.
Other than the Dory vs. Rohre individual matchup in the second round, look for Tufts vs. Northeastern and Middlebury vs. BC to be the key games. In the semis, I'm picking Harvard over Northeastern and Dartmouth over Middlebury.
In the backdoor, Northeastern crushes Brandeis, Tufts handles Boston College, Northeastern squeaks by Tufts again and faces Harvard after they've had a barnburner in finals. Both teams are exhausted and battle each other to double game point. Jason Adams and Kayla Burnim are ready for this moment and blast Wagner over the sound system. Northeastern is inspired and drops napalm on Harvard for the one point victory. The Valkyries declare that Harvard can be their wingman anytime, hop on their Harleys and ride off into the sunset.
Regionals Preview - Great Lakes
Apologies to those interested parties on the East Coast who are interested in checking out my previews before this weekend. I've been trying to get these things out in timely fashion.
GREAT LAKES (2 bids)
When I started writing this preview, the GL region was going to use the double elimination format but it appears that they have switched to pools. Sigh. I think this actually makes sense for them, but it changes things a bit.
I feel reasonably confident in writing that the fight for the region's two bids is a four-team race. Truthfully, Michigan is a lock for the top spot so it is a three-team race for one spot. Apologies to Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame. I wish you the best at Regionals and would love to see some upsets, but this is the way it is.
The Top Dog (aka Alec Baldwin): Michigan. Flywheel is clearly the best and most accomplished of the GL teams. Like Alec, they seem to get better as time goes by.
The Crazy Bro (aka Stephen Baldwin): Illinois. Menace can look awesome (Stephen in 'The Usual Suspects'), they can be embarrassing (Stephen in 'The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas') and they can be a guilty pleasure (Stephen as himself in 'Celebrity Mole' and 'Celebrity Apprentice'). With respect to the rest of the region, the second bid will be mainly determined by which Stephen Baldwin Menace decides to be this weekend.
The Once (and Future?) Star (aka Billy Baldwin): Northwestern. I think a lot of people forget that Billy Baldwin had eclipsed Alec for just a little while in the early 90s. He was in Backdraft, Flatliners and what turned out to be the turning point in his career, Sliver. This flick was a key vehicle for both Billy and Sharon Stone who was just coming off of Basic Instinct. The film stunk and the verdict on Billy was that he wasn't leading man material (on a side note, it took a couple more films like Casino and sucktastic films like The Specialist and The Quick and the Dead before people realized that Sharon Stone was worthless as a leading lady). Billy has quietly been making a comeback with solid spots in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, the Squid and the Whale and the TV series Dirty Sexy Money.
Like Billy, Northwestern blew up at Nationals two years ago and had a dream run that almost landed them in the semifinals. Well, Gung Ho was forgotten last year and flew under the radar this year until their victory over Illinois at Sectionals. The addition of Laura Moore from Duke makes a big difference for Gung Ho. She carried Duke on her back last year and is capable of doing the same for Northwestern. Luckily, Moore has GL FOTY candidate Lien Hoffman to ease the burden.
The Femme Fatale (aka Kim Basinger) - Case Western. Alright, this doesn't really work because I don't think anyone has a serious shot of upsetting Michigan. I guess the logic I can apply here is who can be the entity that gets between Alec and his brothers? Well, that would be (or used to be) Kim 'How did I get an Oscar for LA Confidential' Basinger? Kim Basinger's best and most fitting role was that of Memo Paris in The Natural. Her character basically rendered the magical Roy Hobbs into an ordinary guy. As soon as Hobbs dumps Memo, he's back to being... well, the Natural.
Isn't this what happened to Alec Baldwin? Check out his list of movies while the two were married (1993-2002). Most of those flicks are duds. When he signed on to be the narrator for the Royal Tenenbaums (a great and underrated vocal performance by Baldwin), it coincided with his troubles with Kim. Now, he's a frickin' stud again. The Aviator, The Departed and 30 Rock. The man has been let loose! Anyway, the point here is that Case Western might be the anti-Baldwin. Beware.
Another reason to like Case Western is that there is always a surprise team at Nationals. Last year, Michigan State and Northeastern snuck up on everyone and did much better than expected in Boulder. The Fighting Gobies, led by seniors Ashley Gan and Elaine Leung, fit this description. CWRU already put a big scare in Illinois at the Chicago Invite and their only other loss came to St. Louis. They will return everyone next year so look for them to be contenders (and possibly the Alec Baldwins) next year as well.
The Troubled One (aka Danny Baldwin): Oregon Men's Ultimate. I just couldn't bring myself to equate any women's team to Danny Baldwin. It's just didn't work. But with all the stuff going on with the Oregon men's team (the drinking violations, the speeding tickets, the inappropriate nudity), I think they fit the bill pretty well. It sounds like the Oregon sports department gave them multiple chances to be on their best behavior. Now, they are making news for all the wrong reasons. FAIL.
Who Goes to Columbus: Michigan, Case Western
Tough Luck Loser: Illinois
My take: I really wanted to pick Illinois here, but I just have a bad feeling. I thought that their tough loss to Michigan State last year would have ensured that they wouldn't be in the same position again, but as much as I admire this team, they just seem to be a classic underperforming team. Plus, Stephen Baldwin has been on a losing streak lately (backing the McCain/Palin ticket and tattooing Hannah Montana's initials on his shoulder... these are bad, bad signs).
I think Michigan will take out CWRU in the semis and Illinois will avenge their sectionals loss to Northwestern in the other half. Illinois will sub tightly against Michigan and play them fairly closely for a half before losing by a decent margin. In the back door, CWRU will squeak out a tough win against Northwestern and then face Menace in the game-to-go. The Fighting Gobies get to hop on the I-71, hang out with the Mennonites for a bit before showing up for their first Nationals.
The New England Regionals preview will come soon.
GREAT LAKES (2 bids)
When I started writing this preview, the GL region was going to use the double elimination format but it appears that they have switched to pools. Sigh. I think this actually makes sense for them, but it changes things a bit.
I feel reasonably confident in writing that the fight for the region's two bids is a four-team race. Truthfully, Michigan is a lock for the top spot so it is a three-team race for one spot. Apologies to Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame. I wish you the best at Regionals and would love to see some upsets, but this is the way it is.
The Top Dog (aka Alec Baldwin): Michigan. Flywheel is clearly the best and most accomplished of the GL teams. Like Alec, they seem to get better as time goes by.
The Crazy Bro (aka Stephen Baldwin): Illinois. Menace can look awesome (Stephen in 'The Usual Suspects'), they can be embarrassing (Stephen in 'The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas') and they can be a guilty pleasure (Stephen as himself in 'Celebrity Mole' and 'Celebrity Apprentice'). With respect to the rest of the region, the second bid will be mainly determined by which Stephen Baldwin Menace decides to be this weekend.
The Once (and Future?) Star (aka Billy Baldwin): Northwestern. I think a lot of people forget that Billy Baldwin had eclipsed Alec for just a little while in the early 90s. He was in Backdraft, Flatliners and what turned out to be the turning point in his career, Sliver. This flick was a key vehicle for both Billy and Sharon Stone who was just coming off of Basic Instinct. The film stunk and the verdict on Billy was that he wasn't leading man material (on a side note, it took a couple more films like Casino and sucktastic films like The Specialist and The Quick and the Dead before people realized that Sharon Stone was worthless as a leading lady). Billy has quietly been making a comeback with solid spots in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, the Squid and the Whale and the TV series Dirty Sexy Money.
Like Billy, Northwestern blew up at Nationals two years ago and had a dream run that almost landed them in the semifinals. Well, Gung Ho was forgotten last year and flew under the radar this year until their victory over Illinois at Sectionals. The addition of Laura Moore from Duke makes a big difference for Gung Ho. She carried Duke on her back last year and is capable of doing the same for Northwestern. Luckily, Moore has GL FOTY candidate Lien Hoffman to ease the burden.
The Femme Fatale (aka Kim Basinger) - Case Western. Alright, this doesn't really work because I don't think anyone has a serious shot of upsetting Michigan. I guess the logic I can apply here is who can be the entity that gets between Alec and his brothers? Well, that would be (or used to be) Kim 'How did I get an Oscar for LA Confidential' Basinger? Kim Basinger's best and most fitting role was that of Memo Paris in The Natural. Her character basically rendered the magical Roy Hobbs into an ordinary guy. As soon as Hobbs dumps Memo, he's back to being... well, the Natural.
Isn't this what happened to Alec Baldwin? Check out his list of movies while the two were married (1993-2002). Most of those flicks are duds. When he signed on to be the narrator for the Royal Tenenbaums (a great and underrated vocal performance by Baldwin), it coincided with his troubles with Kim. Now, he's a frickin' stud again. The Aviator, The Departed and 30 Rock. The man has been let loose! Anyway, the point here is that Case Western might be the anti-Baldwin. Beware.
Another reason to like Case Western is that there is always a surprise team at Nationals. Last year, Michigan State and Northeastern snuck up on everyone and did much better than expected in Boulder. The Fighting Gobies, led by seniors Ashley Gan and Elaine Leung, fit this description. CWRU already put a big scare in Illinois at the Chicago Invite and their only other loss came to St. Louis. They will return everyone next year so look for them to be contenders (and possibly the Alec Baldwins) next year as well.
The Troubled One (aka Danny Baldwin): Oregon Men's Ultimate. I just couldn't bring myself to equate any women's team to Danny Baldwin. It's just didn't work. But with all the stuff going on with the Oregon men's team (the drinking violations, the speeding tickets, the inappropriate nudity), I think they fit the bill pretty well. It sounds like the Oregon sports department gave them multiple chances to be on their best behavior. Now, they are making news for all the wrong reasons. FAIL.
Who Goes to Columbus: Michigan, Case Western
Tough Luck Loser: Illinois
My take: I really wanted to pick Illinois here, but I just have a bad feeling. I thought that their tough loss to Michigan State last year would have ensured that they wouldn't be in the same position again, but as much as I admire this team, they just seem to be a classic underperforming team. Plus, Stephen Baldwin has been on a losing streak lately (backing the McCain/Palin ticket and tattooing Hannah Montana's initials on his shoulder... these are bad, bad signs).
I think Michigan will take out CWRU in the semis and Illinois will avenge their sectionals loss to Northwestern in the other half. Illinois will sub tightly against Michigan and play them fairly closely for a half before losing by a decent margin. In the back door, CWRU will squeak out a tough win against Northwestern and then face Menace in the game-to-go. The Fighting Gobies get to hop on the I-71, hang out with the Mennonites for a bit before showing up for their first Nationals.
The New England Regionals preview will come soon.
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