I thought it was a foregone conclusion who would be the Callahan this year, so I steered clear of detailing my personal picks on who was most deserving. To say the least, the final results were a bit surprising, and congratulations are certainly in order to Courtney Kiesow for winning the award.
That said, Kira Frew deserved the award, plain and simple. I completely agree with Neva's assessment in her summary of the finals. Kira is definitely the best player of the five finalists, and no player was more instrumental to her team's success this year. In writing this, I don't mean to denigrate Courtney for having won the award (or any of the other primary candidates). I was fortunate enough to have watched all of the top ten finalists play (and several other candidates), and I can't help but feel that Kira was robbed.
Especially for everyone outside the region, it's very difficult for other teams to properly assess the impact of a player's leadership skills on a team. That means that a player's impact on the field and their relative value on the team usually end up as the primary means by which they are evaluated. Because most players don't get a chance to see all of the primary candidates play, the voting is susceptible to becoming a popularity contest. It's an imperfect system, but that's how it is until the amount of coverage (video footage, write-ups, debates/analysis) increases.
It's after the fact, but if I could have voted on the Callahan, here's how my ballot would have looked:
1. Kira Frew - UBC
2. Katie Barry - UCSB
3 (tie). Angie 'Taz' Sanan - UCLA
3 (tie). Gina Phillips - Texas (not in the top ten but definitely deserved to be there)
5. Lucia Derks - Wake Forest
A few thoughts about each player... without Kira, UBC is still a good team with Tory Hislop and Candace Chan controlling the disc. That said, it was clear that whenever Kira was on the field, the team played with a lot more confidence and poise. She often looks like she's playing the game at a different speed from everyone else on the field. I've blabbed about Katie's importance to the Burning Skirts before. She doesn't stand out as much as Kira, but UCSB would not have been in position to win it all this season without her play and leadership. Taz has a great deal of talent around her, but UCLA's handling is substantially weaker when she's off the field.
Gina Phillips should have made the top ten and it's a shame that she didn't receive more accolades this season. Part of this might be because she's in the South region, but she looked absolutely dominant this weekend. Much like Taz with UCLA, Phillips made the offense significantly better. She's not as strong a thrower as Taz, but she's the better defender.
Lucia Derks has more relative value to her team than any of the other teams at Nationals. Derks is a phenomenal athlete; she is both a dynamic handler and an explosive defender. She has some holes in her game - specifically, her fundamentals as a thrower and her decision-making skills - that set her a step below the top four players. Without her, there's no way that Ruckus would have been nearly as competitive with teams like Michigan and Santa Barbara.
Sarah 'Surge' Griffith and Anne Mercier would just miss the top five. Surge is very fast and critical to Flywheel's mid game. They rely on her to get the disc upfield and get the disc flowing. Anne Mercier might very well be the best player in the women's college game. At least this year, I think her relative value is not as great as the five I listed above. Ottawa has other strong options (in particular, Alex Benedict and Danielle Fortin) who would keep them highly competitive.
Seeing as how I haven't listed Courtney Kiesow above, I feel the need to justify that. I watched Wisconsin in three games (Texas, UC Santa Barbara and Oregon) and I think that Courtney is a very good player. She's a strong receiver and cutter, and she has a good arsenal of throws. On the flip side, she isn't the best player on Wisconsin (that would be Georgia) and I think there are a number of other players who can provide what she tangibly brings to the field, in particular, Frances Tsukano, Laura Bitterman and Emilie McKain. [On a side note, I was very impressed with Emilie McKain. All of the excitement about her game is absolutely merited. She's definitely someone to watch for years to come.]
I know that what I've written is bound to piss off the folks in Madison. None of this is personal. Also, this is just based on the three games I've seen Bella Donna play, and I cannot adequately assess the impact her leadership has on the Wisconsin team itself.
I am mainly bringing up all of this because I feel very strongly about Kira having deserved the Callahan this year. I wonder if she lost some votes because of an anti-Canadian sentiment, and I feel a bit guilty for having joked about taking down the Canadians. If this is the case, it's a terrible shame. Whatever the case is, I'm sure that winning the title more than makes up for the absence of the Callahan.
Regarding the Callahan itself, one major flaw with the voting is that it is finalized before Nationals, the best venue for all of the voters to determine who deserves the award. Certainly, the great thing about voting before Nationals is that the award can be presented at the tourney. I do wonder if it would be possible to tally extra votes at Nationals, so that the attendees and any spectators can make their decision as best-informed as it possibly can be. I don't know that it would have made a difference in the voting for either the men or women, but it's something to consider. Certainly, the argument can be made that the Callahan should be based on performance over the course of the season, but realistically, it's difficult to fairly assess all of the candidates before May. Of the elite, national-scale tourneys, Vegas is too early and the Stanford fields are too spread apart to enable voters to form a good opinion. That makes Centex the best place to assess everyone, but of course, this doesn't incorporate the College Series, the tourneys which really define who is what.
Anyway, this is my two cents and congrats go out to all of the Callahan finalists. I'll be posting details on Day Two and other stories from Nationals in days to come.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Friday, May 16, 2008
Day One - Scattered Thoughts
Okay, I was obviously smoking some crack when I made my predictions. At the same time, I feel good about some others (like the potential for Pool C to be the most exciting). There were some wild results and I will have more details after the weekend. Right now, I'm exhausted after too little sleep and too much sun, so I'll outline the major highlights.
First of all, I have to say that my heart is breaking for Texas Melee. They are the big story after pool play, for good and bad reasons. They put together two of the most gutsy efforts I have seen all season. Their victory over UW was no fluke and the battle with Wisconsin was the best game of the day. Gina Phillips is the real deal, and though they were eliminated from title contention, I am definitely a believer in her and the Melee squad. They went from being on the verge of winning the pool outright to finishing last in the pool. It's an unbelievable turn of events.
I had suspected that UW would crush Texas, Texas would eke out a win over Wisconsin and Wisconsin would upset UW. As it turns out, all of that happened but I just had the wrong teams. UW crushed Wisconsin, Wisconsin eked out a win over Texas and Texas upset UW. The fascinating thing about the UW win over Wisconsin is that they went into the game needing to win by seven points to win the pool. At the time, everyone had been assuming that there would potentially be a three way tie for first. I also thought there was no way that UW would crush a very good Wisconsin squad. Apologies, Element -- I won't doubt you again.
The X factor in all of this was a much better than expected Michigan State squad. Coached by Dan Tai, they threw a completely different wrinkle in the pool by defeating Texas. They had played both UW and Wisconsin tough, but I honestly never thought that there was a chance of them upsetting Texas. After storming out to a 6-0 lead, Infamous had all the momentum and cruised to a lopsided win over Melee. It can (and almost certainly will) be argued that Melee had nothing in the tank after putting so much in against Bella Donna and Element. However, Michigan State deserves a ton of credit for coming into Nationals with a great attitude and a tough-nosed mentality that proved the naysayers wrong.
Having been one of those naysayers, I will officially apologize and proceed to eat crow. Congrats on a fantastic Friday and best of luck on Saturday. I will proceed to immediately pick against you but cover all of my bases in pathetic fashion by hoping that you upset Carleton.
Another big story is the first loss of the season for the Ottawa ex-Anton Chigurhs. There is no longer the possibility for an all-Canadian finals, so folks north of the border won't have to worry about what pants they were going to wet in the event of an Ottawa-UBC showdown. Ottawa remains a very talented squad capable of taking down anyone. However, they now have a very difficult path to the finals, having to go through a scrappy UNC squad, UW and likely UBC in the semis. Ouch. Their top players are some of the best players in the field, but they are definitely not deep and it showed in their game against Santa Barbara.
Finally, there is still no clear frontrunner for the title. UCLA put all of the Michigan upset talk to rest with a 4 point victory (on a side note, Flywheel looked impressive, especially in their first two games). BLU also looked very vulnerable against both Maryland and UNC. UBC had the most impressive day on paper and look like they are ready for their run to the title. That said, I think UW, UCLA, Ottawa and UCSB match up very well with them. They are susceptible against teams with potent offenses featuring a good amount of height. I think Wisconsin and UW are very talented teams but they proved today that they are also teams that are hard to trust when it comes to crunch time.
I think the team that is flying under the radar right now is Santa Barbara. A common sentiment from people I've spoken with is that they don't seem that impressive in person, but the fact is that they just keep winning. What's also fascinating is that they have changed slowly but surely into a very different team from last year. What was just last year a run-and-gun team with some questionable interpretations on spirited play is now a much more spirited team that values the disc and can move the disc more patiently when it needs to. On top of that, they can still jack the disc with the best of them. The fact remains that they battled a resilient Wake Forest squad and took down the undefeated Ottawa squad. The impact of Andrea Romano and Steve Dugan is very difficult to fully measure, but it's safe to say that it is a huge difference to this squad.
REVISED PICKS (because it's my blog and I can revise if I want to)
Pre-quarters
Carleton vs. Michigan State - Carleton by 4. Infamous, you've earned my respect. Carleton is definitely beatable -- ask Northeastern.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon - Oregon by 1. This is definitely the best of the pre-quarters matchups. Anything could happen in this game. Oregon wins 15-0, Wisconsin wins 15-0, they tie 15-15 and fuse into one mega-team for the quarters. I'd believe it with all that these two teams have gone through.
Ottawa vs. UNC - Ottawa by 6. I didn't give much love to UNC in my pool predictions, and I would love to do so, but unfortunately, they draw a terrible matchup. The Lady Gee Gees will be angry and rested.
Michigan vs. Wake Forest - Michigan by 5. Flywheel moves the disc really well on offense and will shred Ruckus' defense.
Quarters
UCLA vs. Carleton - UCLA by 3. BLU likes to get up by 2 or 3 and hang on to that margin. You think you're close, but you're not.
UCSB vs. Oregon (aka Oregon/Wisconsin/Fugue-a-Donna) - UCSB by 2. Whoever the Skirts play in the quarters will provide a great matchup.
UBC vs. Michigan - UBC by 4. Steph Chow and the Thunderbirds do a great job of making the necessary in-game adjustments. They'll steadily wear down Bodova, Baecher, Griffith and Turley.
UW vs. Ottawa - I say Ottawa by 1, but the line is pick em. This is going to be one hell of a matchup. Unfortunately, the winner of this game is going to be worn down and be easy pickings for UBC.
Semis
UCLA vs. UCSB - UCLA by 1. The rematch of last year's semis goes down to the wire. This time, it ends with a Taz huck to Gizmo.
UBC vs. Ottawa - UBC by 5. Ottawa is worn down and has little left in the tank. UBC picks them apart like the birds of prey that they are.
I think the only truly satisfying matchup to end the year is UCLA vs. UBC. One game to decide it all - the true tiebreaker in the NCUS, the prizes, the Collegiate Ultimate Championship - that would be something to write about.
First of all, I have to say that my heart is breaking for Texas Melee. They are the big story after pool play, for good and bad reasons. They put together two of the most gutsy efforts I have seen all season. Their victory over UW was no fluke and the battle with Wisconsin was the best game of the day. Gina Phillips is the real deal, and though they were eliminated from title contention, I am definitely a believer in her and the Melee squad. They went from being on the verge of winning the pool outright to finishing last in the pool. It's an unbelievable turn of events.
I had suspected that UW would crush Texas, Texas would eke out a win over Wisconsin and Wisconsin would upset UW. As it turns out, all of that happened but I just had the wrong teams. UW crushed Wisconsin, Wisconsin eked out a win over Texas and Texas upset UW. The fascinating thing about the UW win over Wisconsin is that they went into the game needing to win by seven points to win the pool. At the time, everyone had been assuming that there would potentially be a three way tie for first. I also thought there was no way that UW would crush a very good Wisconsin squad. Apologies, Element -- I won't doubt you again.
The X factor in all of this was a much better than expected Michigan State squad. Coached by Dan Tai, they threw a completely different wrinkle in the pool by defeating Texas. They had played both UW and Wisconsin tough, but I honestly never thought that there was a chance of them upsetting Texas. After storming out to a 6-0 lead, Infamous had all the momentum and cruised to a lopsided win over Melee. It can (and almost certainly will) be argued that Melee had nothing in the tank after putting so much in against Bella Donna and Element. However, Michigan State deserves a ton of credit for coming into Nationals with a great attitude and a tough-nosed mentality that proved the naysayers wrong.
Having been one of those naysayers, I will officially apologize and proceed to eat crow. Congrats on a fantastic Friday and best of luck on Saturday. I will proceed to immediately pick against you but cover all of my bases in pathetic fashion by hoping that you upset Carleton.
Another big story is the first loss of the season for the Ottawa ex-Anton Chigurhs. There is no longer the possibility for an all-Canadian finals, so folks north of the border won't have to worry about what pants they were going to wet in the event of an Ottawa-UBC showdown. Ottawa remains a very talented squad capable of taking down anyone. However, they now have a very difficult path to the finals, having to go through a scrappy UNC squad, UW and likely UBC in the semis. Ouch. Their top players are some of the best players in the field, but they are definitely not deep and it showed in their game against Santa Barbara.
Finally, there is still no clear frontrunner for the title. UCLA put all of the Michigan upset talk to rest with a 4 point victory (on a side note, Flywheel looked impressive, especially in their first two games). BLU also looked very vulnerable against both Maryland and UNC. UBC had the most impressive day on paper and look like they are ready for their run to the title. That said, I think UW, UCLA, Ottawa and UCSB match up very well with them. They are susceptible against teams with potent offenses featuring a good amount of height. I think Wisconsin and UW are very talented teams but they proved today that they are also teams that are hard to trust when it comes to crunch time.
I think the team that is flying under the radar right now is Santa Barbara. A common sentiment from people I've spoken with is that they don't seem that impressive in person, but the fact is that they just keep winning. What's also fascinating is that they have changed slowly but surely into a very different team from last year. What was just last year a run-and-gun team with some questionable interpretations on spirited play is now a much more spirited team that values the disc and can move the disc more patiently when it needs to. On top of that, they can still jack the disc with the best of them. The fact remains that they battled a resilient Wake Forest squad and took down the undefeated Ottawa squad. The impact of Andrea Romano and Steve Dugan is very difficult to fully measure, but it's safe to say that it is a huge difference to this squad.
REVISED PICKS (because it's my blog and I can revise if I want to)
Pre-quarters
Carleton vs. Michigan State - Carleton by 4. Infamous, you've earned my respect. Carleton is definitely beatable -- ask Northeastern.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon - Oregon by 1. This is definitely the best of the pre-quarters matchups. Anything could happen in this game. Oregon wins 15-0, Wisconsin wins 15-0, they tie 15-15 and fuse into one mega-team for the quarters. I'd believe it with all that these two teams have gone through.
Ottawa vs. UNC - Ottawa by 6. I didn't give much love to UNC in my pool predictions, and I would love to do so, but unfortunately, they draw a terrible matchup. The Lady Gee Gees will be angry and rested.
Michigan vs. Wake Forest - Michigan by 5. Flywheel moves the disc really well on offense and will shred Ruckus' defense.
Quarters
UCLA vs. Carleton - UCLA by 3. BLU likes to get up by 2 or 3 and hang on to that margin. You think you're close, but you're not.
UCSB vs. Oregon (aka Oregon/Wisconsin/Fugue-a-Donna) - UCSB by 2. Whoever the Skirts play in the quarters will provide a great matchup.
UBC vs. Michigan - UBC by 4. Steph Chow and the Thunderbirds do a great job of making the necessary in-game adjustments. They'll steadily wear down Bodova, Baecher, Griffith and Turley.
UW vs. Ottawa - I say Ottawa by 1, but the line is pick em. This is going to be one hell of a matchup. Unfortunately, the winner of this game is going to be worn down and be easy pickings for UBC.
Semis
UCLA vs. UCSB - UCLA by 1. The rematch of last year's semis goes down to the wire. This time, it ends with a Taz huck to Gizmo.
UBC vs. Ottawa - UBC by 5. Ottawa is worn down and has little left in the tank. UBC picks them apart like the birds of prey that they are.
I think the only truly satisfying matchup to end the year is UCLA vs. UBC. One game to decide it all - the true tiebreaker in the NCUS, the prizes, the Collegiate Ultimate Championship - that would be something to write about.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Nationals Preview
2008 College Nationals is less than 48 hours away. This year has been a great one for the women’s division and there are several interesting stories going into this weekend.
Perhaps the biggest story in the women’s division is parity. This has been evidenced at several different levels. At the top, there is no clear-cut favorite going into Boulder. Any of the top four seeds (UCLA, UBC, UW and Ottawa) have a very good shot at winning it all, and the next three seeds (UCSB, Wisconsin, Oregon) may be long shots to take the title, but they all have the talent to upend one of the big four and make a deep run. The glaring absence of Stanford, the dominant program in women’s ultimate, underscores the wide-open nature of the field.
The increased parity this year also manifested itself at the regional level and produced some exciting newcomers and surprise guests to the big showdown in Boulder. The most surprising team of the season has to be Ottawa. The Lady Gee Gees are one of five teams (Ottawa, Wake Forest, Maryland, Northeastern, Michigan State) who are making their first appearance at the tournament formerly known as Nationals (soon to be renamed . Washington and North Carolina are fairly familiar names on the national scene but surprisingly, this is only the second appearance at Nationals for both teams. The surprises emerged during the season (Ottawa, Wake Forest, Maryland and to a certain extent Northeastern) and also as late as Regionals (MIT, Michigan State).
Another big story to watch this weekend is the potential renaming of the tourney from Nationals to Quasi-Nationals or Pseudo-Internationals. In the past few years, the semis have been dominated by the Northwest and the Southwest. While the hunt for the strength bids remains an important battle, it seems that barring any major surprises, the semis will boil down to USA vs. Canada. I will attempt to retain as much impartiality as possible, but should UCLA end up in the finals against either UBC or Ottawa, I will be unable to resist chanting 'BLU-S-A, BLU-S-A!!!'
[Note: The below point spreads are only to be used for recreational purposes. This includes drunken gambling.]
POOL PLAY
Pool A – UCLA/Michigan/UNC/Maryland
UCLA enters the tourney as the overall number one seed for the second year in a row. They also come in as the least-touted 1 seed despite having a season where they finished tied for first in the inaugural National Collegiate Ultimate Series (NCUS). They also won the Stanford Invite, beat UBC three times and ran through the tough Southwest region with few scratches. This team could be like the 2004 Detroit Pistons, a team with the best overall record but was overlooked in favor of the Lakers, the Timberwolves and the Spurs.
In this pool, BLU will be heavily favored over an intriguing set of teams who could easily finish in a three-way tie. Michigan Flywheel has several quality wins this season but they haven’t broken through against any of the title contenders. Making things even more interesting is that they lost to UNC in their only matchup this season. UNC Pleiades are a scrappy squad and they benefit greatly from the coaching tandem of Brian Dobyns and Lindsey Hack. In order for them to advance to bracket play, they will need to find consistent offensive options outside of Kate Scott and Jill Simmerman.
Maryland is the scary team here. They lost to North Carolina early in the season but their two wins over Pittsburgh and two lopsided victories over Northeastern suggest that this is a team to be taken seriously. The knocks against the Helpful Corn are obvious – they lack big tourney experience (one of three teams who didn’t attend any of the big three tourneys), they got rolled by Ottawa and they come from a region that doesn’t get much respect. Look for Charlie Mercer to be one of the breakout stars of the tourney.
Predictions: UCLA wins easily. Maryland surprises both Michigan and North Carolina to take second in the pool. Michigan and North Carolina battle in a very tough game where Flywheel prevails on double game point.
Point Spreads: UCLA v. UNC/Maryland/Michigan (+7/+5/+4), Michigan v. UNC/Maryland (+4/+2), UNC v. Maryland (-2)
Pool B – UBC/Oregon/Carleton/Northeastern
British Columbia could have easily come into the tourney as the number one seed and they appear to be the favorite on scorereport.net. They shouldn’t have too many problems getting a spot directly to the quarterfinals but they will need to be ready against Oregon. In two of the past three years, the number seven seed has upset the two seed (NC State-Iowa in 2005 and Wisconsin-UBC last year). UBC finds itself in a similar situation to last year except they are now on the other end. In 2007, the Wisconsin squad led by Holly Gruenke was one of the favorites, picked by many to face UCLA in the finals. Their crucial loss to UBC created a killer matchup in the quarterfinals against UCLA, and Wisconsin failed to make it to Sunday.
On paper, Oregon is well-equipped to challenge UBC but they are going into this weekend with a couple key losses. They lost two young, athletic defenders to ACL injuries. Consequently, more pressure is going to fall on players like Shannon McDowell and Jessica Huynh to be offensive workhorses and also play shutdown defense on UBC's primary options -- a tough task for anybody. Oregon will need to find a way to rattle UBC's steady offense and ideally increase the pace of the game to a run and gun affair. Whoever wins the pool will likely get the easiest path to the semifinals. Regardless of how Oregon performs this weekend, they can take pride in doing what nobody else could do for the past three years by driving a stake through Stanford’s heart.
Coming into this season, Carleton returned a solid roster, but they haven’t been able to take that step up many assumed they would. They remain very dangerous, but unfortunately for them, they ended up with difficult matchups. In particular, going up against Lou Burruss, the former Syzygy coach, will be a tough hurdle for them. Megan Molteni is the face of the Syzygy squad, but I think Beth Mynar is quite underrated and her play will be critical to Syzygy’s success.
Northeastern looks to reprise the role of last year’s surprise team Northwestern. In the spirit of directionally-named universities, I have heard the rumor that the Claremont Colleges are finally dropping their illusion of being five, distinct campuses and banding together like Voltron under the name Southwestern University.
Prediction: UBC gets a scare from Oregon but takes the pool after blowing by Carleton and Northeastern. Oregon and Carleton start close but Fugue pulls away and wins by 4 or more. Northeastern gives Carleton a tough game but they will end up fourth in the pool.
Point Spreads: UBC v. Carleton/Northeastern/Oregon (+5/+8/+3), Oregon v. Carleton/Northeastern (+4/+6), Carleton v. Northeastern (+3)
Pool C – Washington/Wisconsin/Texas/Michigan State
This pool offers the most excitement this weekend. Washington may have been content to come in second at Regionals, figuring that one of the top seeds was almost guaranteed. Unfortunately, for them, they drew two very difficult teams in pool play, Wisconsin and Texas. Assuming they get through pool play, they have the most difficult draw in the quarters, almost certainly either Ottawa or Santa Barbara. If Element is to win the title, they’ll have done it by taking the most difficult path there. Fortunately for them, they are armed with a lot of depth and they’ll need to sub deep to keep cutters like Shannon O’Malley and Lindsey Wilson as fresh as possible.
Wisconsin has all of the assets needed to upend one of the big four, but they are 0-4 against the top four seeds this year. They have yet to play Washington, though, and they will get at least one more chance to prove that they belong at the top. They may not end up drawing each other in defensive assignments, but the potential for a Georgia Bosscher - Shannon O'Malley matchup is extremely exciting. Not only are they two of the most exciting young players in the nation, they also sport two of the best hairstyles. It will be tantamount to Bob Marley v. Johnny Rotten, Third World v. The Clash, Kingston v. London.
Texas has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team all year. They split their two matchups against Wisconsin and got obliterated by Washington in both meetings. They managed to lose at Sectionals, but then marched through South Regionals with relative ease. Don't be surprised if they take down either Washington or Wisconsin but finish third on point differential.
Michigan State had a dream run to nab the second spot out of the Great Lakes Region, but they are going to struggle in pool play. The divide between the top three and the ladies from East Lansing is the largest disparity in any pool. I hope they make me eat my words.
Prediction: Washington loses to Wisconsin in a nail-biter but crushes Texas. Texas ekes out a win over Wisconsin but they lose out on point differential. Michigan State and their fans will send me hate mail for stating that they will struggle to score six in any of these games.
Point Spreads: Washington vs. Texas/Michigan State/Wisconsin (+5/+10/+3), Wisconsin vs. Texas/Michigan St. (+2/+10), Texas vs. Michigan St. (+9)
Pool D – Ottawa/UCSB/Wake Forest/MIT
The Ottawa-Santa Barbara matchup will be the game to watch in pool play. It will also be the measuring stick to gauge Ottawa and their chances of winning it all. We know that they are for real but how real are they? Detractors of the Metro East will indicate that they have had an easy schedule and haven’t proven themselves like UCLA and UBC. People who’ve read my other articles know that I’ve referenced them as the Anton Chigurhs, but perhaps the more apt comparison for them is the 1999 St. Louis Rams. Anne Mercier isn't exactly Kurt Warner since she was a fairly well known player at the juniors level and as a player for Capitals, so we'll call her Marshall Faulk.
Santa Barbara is peaking at the right time. They have yet to take that next step up this year (1-6 against the top 3 with the sole win coming against UW in the consolation game at the Stanford Invite). That said, the return of Andrea Romano and the presence of Steve Dugan on the sidelines gives them an added dimension that could lead to a similar run to last year.
Lucia Derks and the rest of the Wake Forest squad have had a fantastic breakthrough season. I just can't them coming through against either Ottawa or Santa Barbara. Ruckus' losses to UW and UBC at Centex are telling and I think the results will be comparable.
MIT has had a decent amount of history at Nationals, but that is not going to help them in pool play. If they upset Wake Forest in pool play, that would qualify as one of the biggest upsets of the tourney.
Prediction: Ottawa and UCSB battle for the first 20 points of the game before the non-French Canadians roll five unanswered to win by five. The rest of the pool games will go according to seed and each game will be by sizable margins.
Point Spreads: Ottawa vs. Wake Forest/MIT/UCSB (+8/+12/+3), UCSB vs. Wake Forest/MIT (+5/+10), Wake Forest vs. MIT (+5)
BRACKET PLAY
Pre-Quarters
I won't spend much time analyzing these potential matchups since they are completely speculative.
Oregon vs. Texas - They've met twice before and both times Oregon walked away with the win. Fugue will make it a hat trick with three point win.
Wisconsin vs. Carleton - Hey, here's a novel matchup! Or not. The outcome is also familiar - Bella Donna by 2.
UCSB vs. Michigan - Burning Skirts, Burning Skirts, bring home the wildcard! UCSB by 5.
Maryland vs. Wake Forest - It's the ACC. Len Bias' ghost will take down the Tim Duncans by 2.
Quarterfinals
UCLA vs. Oregon - In a battle of Bears versus Water Fowl, go with the Bears. UCLA by 3.
Ottawa vs. Wisconsin - Heart-stopping game decided by a 50 yard crossfield hammer. Ottawa by 1.
Washington vs. UCSB - Wow, I hope this game happens. I want the Skirts to win to bring home two strength bids, but I'm going with Element by 2.
UBC vs. Maryland - Maryland's dream run ends in decisive fashion. UBC by 8.
Semifinals
UCLA vs. Ottawa - The Vegas finals rematch is a close one. The crowd starts chanting Red, White and BLU on double game point. Though the Miracle on Ice happened before anyone on the field was born (and Canada is not the Soviet Union... yet...), Korb summons the ghost of Herb Brooks and Taz turns into Mike Eruzione. A give-and-go sends BLU into the finals. UCLA by 1.
UBC vs. Washington - This matchup is becoming the Alien vs. Predator of women's ultimate. UBC are clearly the Aliens, mechanical and badass. Washington wears purple and possesses infrared vision. I never saw the movie so I have no idea who wins. I'm going with UBC by 1.
Finals
UCLA vs. UBC IV - This time it's personal. Before a good-sized crowd, BLU emerges onto the fields with new shorts, the same ones Apollo Creed wore in Rocky IV. This is not a good omen because Apollo died in those shorts. Lucky for Team BLU-S-A, Rocky also donned those shorts when he beat Ivan Drago. UCLA by IV.
Best of luck to all the teams this weekend!
Perhaps the biggest story in the women’s division is parity. This has been evidenced at several different levels. At the top, there is no clear-cut favorite going into Boulder. Any of the top four seeds (UCLA, UBC, UW and Ottawa) have a very good shot at winning it all, and the next three seeds (UCSB, Wisconsin, Oregon) may be long shots to take the title, but they all have the talent to upend one of the big four and make a deep run. The glaring absence of Stanford, the dominant program in women’s ultimate, underscores the wide-open nature of the field.
The increased parity this year also manifested itself at the regional level and produced some exciting newcomers and surprise guests to the big showdown in Boulder. The most surprising team of the season has to be Ottawa. The Lady Gee Gees are one of five teams (Ottawa, Wake Forest, Maryland, Northeastern, Michigan State) who are making their first appearance at the tournament formerly known as Nationals (soon to be renamed . Washington and North Carolina are fairly familiar names on the national scene but surprisingly, this is only the second appearance at Nationals for both teams. The surprises emerged during the season (Ottawa, Wake Forest, Maryland and to a certain extent Northeastern) and also as late as Regionals (MIT, Michigan State).
Another big story to watch this weekend is the potential renaming of the tourney from Nationals to Quasi-Nationals or Pseudo-Internationals. In the past few years, the semis have been dominated by the Northwest and the Southwest. While the hunt for the strength bids remains an important battle, it seems that barring any major surprises, the semis will boil down to USA vs. Canada. I will attempt to retain as much impartiality as possible, but should UCLA end up in the finals against either UBC or Ottawa, I will be unable to resist chanting 'BLU-S-A, BLU-S-A!!!'
[Note: The below point spreads are only to be used for recreational purposes. This includes drunken gambling.]
POOL PLAY
Pool A – UCLA/Michigan/UNC/Maryland
UCLA enters the tourney as the overall number one seed for the second year in a row. They also come in as the least-touted 1 seed despite having a season where they finished tied for first in the inaugural National Collegiate Ultimate Series (NCUS). They also won the Stanford Invite, beat UBC three times and ran through the tough Southwest region with few scratches. This team could be like the 2004 Detroit Pistons, a team with the best overall record but was overlooked in favor of the Lakers, the Timberwolves and the Spurs.
In this pool, BLU will be heavily favored over an intriguing set of teams who could easily finish in a three-way tie. Michigan Flywheel has several quality wins this season but they haven’t broken through against any of the title contenders. Making things even more interesting is that they lost to UNC in their only matchup this season. UNC Pleiades are a scrappy squad and they benefit greatly from the coaching tandem of Brian Dobyns and Lindsey Hack. In order for them to advance to bracket play, they will need to find consistent offensive options outside of Kate Scott and Jill Simmerman.
Maryland is the scary team here. They lost to North Carolina early in the season but their two wins over Pittsburgh and two lopsided victories over Northeastern suggest that this is a team to be taken seriously. The knocks against the Helpful Corn are obvious – they lack big tourney experience (one of three teams who didn’t attend any of the big three tourneys), they got rolled by Ottawa and they come from a region that doesn’t get much respect. Look for Charlie Mercer to be one of the breakout stars of the tourney.
Predictions: UCLA wins easily. Maryland surprises both Michigan and North Carolina to take second in the pool. Michigan and North Carolina battle in a very tough game where Flywheel prevails on double game point.
Point Spreads: UCLA v. UNC/Maryland/Michigan (+7/+5/+4), Michigan v. UNC/Maryland (+4/+2), UNC v. Maryland (-2)
Pool B – UBC/Oregon/Carleton/Northeastern
British Columbia could have easily come into the tourney as the number one seed and they appear to be the favorite on scorereport.net. They shouldn’t have too many problems getting a spot directly to the quarterfinals but they will need to be ready against Oregon. In two of the past three years, the number seven seed has upset the two seed (NC State-Iowa in 2005 and Wisconsin-UBC last year). UBC finds itself in a similar situation to last year except they are now on the other end. In 2007, the Wisconsin squad led by Holly Gruenke was one of the favorites, picked by many to face UCLA in the finals. Their crucial loss to UBC created a killer matchup in the quarterfinals against UCLA, and Wisconsin failed to make it to Sunday.
On paper, Oregon is well-equipped to challenge UBC but they are going into this weekend with a couple key losses. They lost two young, athletic defenders to ACL injuries. Consequently, more pressure is going to fall on players like Shannon McDowell and Jessica Huynh to be offensive workhorses and also play shutdown defense on UBC's primary options -- a tough task for anybody. Oregon will need to find a way to rattle UBC's steady offense and ideally increase the pace of the game to a run and gun affair. Whoever wins the pool will likely get the easiest path to the semifinals. Regardless of how Oregon performs this weekend, they can take pride in doing what nobody else could do for the past three years by driving a stake through Stanford’s heart.
Coming into this season, Carleton returned a solid roster, but they haven’t been able to take that step up many assumed they would. They remain very dangerous, but unfortunately for them, they ended up with difficult matchups. In particular, going up against Lou Burruss, the former Syzygy coach, will be a tough hurdle for them. Megan Molteni is the face of the Syzygy squad, but I think Beth Mynar is quite underrated and her play will be critical to Syzygy’s success.
Northeastern looks to reprise the role of last year’s surprise team Northwestern. In the spirit of directionally-named universities, I have heard the rumor that the Claremont Colleges are finally dropping their illusion of being five, distinct campuses and banding together like Voltron under the name Southwestern University.
Prediction: UBC gets a scare from Oregon but takes the pool after blowing by Carleton and Northeastern. Oregon and Carleton start close but Fugue pulls away and wins by 4 or more. Northeastern gives Carleton a tough game but they will end up fourth in the pool.
Point Spreads: UBC v. Carleton/Northeastern/Oregon (+5/+8/+3), Oregon v. Carleton/Northeastern (+4/+6), Carleton v. Northeastern (+3)
Pool C – Washington/Wisconsin/Texas/Michigan State
This pool offers the most excitement this weekend. Washington may have been content to come in second at Regionals, figuring that one of the top seeds was almost guaranteed. Unfortunately, for them, they drew two very difficult teams in pool play, Wisconsin and Texas. Assuming they get through pool play, they have the most difficult draw in the quarters, almost certainly either Ottawa or Santa Barbara. If Element is to win the title, they’ll have done it by taking the most difficult path there. Fortunately for them, they are armed with a lot of depth and they’ll need to sub deep to keep cutters like Shannon O’Malley and Lindsey Wilson as fresh as possible.
Wisconsin has all of the assets needed to upend one of the big four, but they are 0-4 against the top four seeds this year. They have yet to play Washington, though, and they will get at least one more chance to prove that they belong at the top. They may not end up drawing each other in defensive assignments, but the potential for a Georgia Bosscher - Shannon O'Malley matchup is extremely exciting. Not only are they two of the most exciting young players in the nation, they also sport two of the best hairstyles. It will be tantamount to Bob Marley v. Johnny Rotten, Third World v. The Clash, Kingston v. London.
Texas has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team all year. They split their two matchups against Wisconsin and got obliterated by Washington in both meetings. They managed to lose at Sectionals, but then marched through South Regionals with relative ease. Don't be surprised if they take down either Washington or Wisconsin but finish third on point differential.
Michigan State had a dream run to nab the second spot out of the Great Lakes Region, but they are going to struggle in pool play. The divide between the top three and the ladies from East Lansing is the largest disparity in any pool. I hope they make me eat my words.
Prediction: Washington loses to Wisconsin in a nail-biter but crushes Texas. Texas ekes out a win over Wisconsin but they lose out on point differential. Michigan State and their fans will send me hate mail for stating that they will struggle to score six in any of these games.
Point Spreads: Washington vs. Texas/Michigan State/Wisconsin (+5/+10/+3), Wisconsin vs. Texas/Michigan St. (+2/+10), Texas vs. Michigan St. (+9)
Pool D – Ottawa/UCSB/Wake Forest/MIT
The Ottawa-Santa Barbara matchup will be the game to watch in pool play. It will also be the measuring stick to gauge Ottawa and their chances of winning it all. We know that they are for real but how real are they? Detractors of the Metro East will indicate that they have had an easy schedule and haven’t proven themselves like UCLA and UBC. People who’ve read my other articles know that I’ve referenced them as the Anton Chigurhs, but perhaps the more apt comparison for them is the 1999 St. Louis Rams. Anne Mercier isn't exactly Kurt Warner since she was a fairly well known player at the juniors level and as a player for Capitals, so we'll call her Marshall Faulk.
Santa Barbara is peaking at the right time. They have yet to take that next step up this year (1-6 against the top 3 with the sole win coming against UW in the consolation game at the Stanford Invite). That said, the return of Andrea Romano and the presence of Steve Dugan on the sidelines gives them an added dimension that could lead to a similar run to last year.
Lucia Derks and the rest of the Wake Forest squad have had a fantastic breakthrough season. I just can't them coming through against either Ottawa or Santa Barbara. Ruckus' losses to UW and UBC at Centex are telling and I think the results will be comparable.
MIT has had a decent amount of history at Nationals, but that is not going to help them in pool play. If they upset Wake Forest in pool play, that would qualify as one of the biggest upsets of the tourney.
Prediction: Ottawa and UCSB battle for the first 20 points of the game before the non-French Canadians roll five unanswered to win by five. The rest of the pool games will go according to seed and each game will be by sizable margins.
Point Spreads: Ottawa vs. Wake Forest/MIT/UCSB (+8/+12/+3), UCSB vs. Wake Forest/MIT (+5/+10), Wake Forest vs. MIT (+5)
BRACKET PLAY
Pre-Quarters
I won't spend much time analyzing these potential matchups since they are completely speculative.
Oregon vs. Texas - They've met twice before and both times Oregon walked away with the win. Fugue will make it a hat trick with three point win.
Wisconsin vs. Carleton - Hey, here's a novel matchup! Or not. The outcome is also familiar - Bella Donna by 2.
UCSB vs. Michigan - Burning Skirts, Burning Skirts, bring home the wildcard! UCSB by 5.
Maryland vs. Wake Forest - It's the ACC. Len Bias' ghost will take down the Tim Duncans by 2.
Quarterfinals
UCLA vs. Oregon - In a battle of Bears versus Water Fowl, go with the Bears. UCLA by 3.
Ottawa vs. Wisconsin - Heart-stopping game decided by a 50 yard crossfield hammer. Ottawa by 1.
Washington vs. UCSB - Wow, I hope this game happens. I want the Skirts to win to bring home two strength bids, but I'm going with Element by 2.
UBC vs. Maryland - Maryland's dream run ends in decisive fashion. UBC by 8.
Semifinals
UCLA vs. Ottawa - The Vegas finals rematch is a close one. The crowd starts chanting Red, White and BLU on double game point. Though the Miracle on Ice happened before anyone on the field was born (and Canada is not the Soviet Union... yet...), Korb summons the ghost of Herb Brooks and Taz turns into Mike Eruzione. A give-and-go sends BLU into the finals. UCLA by 1.
UBC vs. Washington - This matchup is becoming the Alien vs. Predator of women's ultimate. UBC are clearly the Aliens, mechanical and badass. Washington wears purple and possesses infrared vision. I never saw the movie so I have no idea who wins. I'm going with UBC by 1.
Finals
UCLA vs. UBC IV - This time it's personal. Before a good-sized crowd, BLU emerges onto the fields with new shorts, the same ones Apollo Creed wore in Rocky IV. This is not a good omen because Apollo died in those shorts. Lucky for Team BLU-S-A, Rocky also donned those shorts when he beat Ivan Drago. UCLA by IV.
Best of luck to all the teams this weekend!
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