Nationals Preview

2008 College Nationals is less than 48 hours away. This year has been a great one for the women’s division and there are several interesting stories going into this weekend.

Perhaps the biggest story in the women’s division is parity. This has been evidenced at several different levels. At the top, there is no clear-cut favorite going into Boulder. Any of the top four seeds (UCLA, UBC, UW and Ottawa) have a very good shot at winning it all, and the next three seeds (UCSB, Wisconsin, Oregon) may be long shots to take the title, but they all have the talent to upend one of the big four and make a deep run. The glaring absence of Stanford, the dominant program in women’s ultimate, underscores the wide-open nature of the field.

The increased parity this year also manifested itself at the regional level and produced some exciting newcomers and surprise guests to the big showdown in Boulder. The most surprising team of the season has to be Ottawa. The Lady Gee Gees are one of five teams (Ottawa, Wake Forest, Maryland, Northeastern, Michigan State) who are making their first appearance at the tournament formerly known as Nationals (soon to be renamed . Washington and North Carolina are fairly familiar names on the national scene but surprisingly, this is only the second appearance at Nationals for both teams. The surprises emerged during the season (Ottawa, Wake Forest, Maryland and to a certain extent Northeastern) and also as late as Regionals (MIT, Michigan State).

Another big story to watch this weekend is the potential renaming of the tourney from Nationals to Quasi-Nationals or Pseudo-Internationals. In the past few years, the semis have been dominated by the Northwest and the Southwest. While the hunt for the strength bids remains an important battle, it seems that barring any major surprises, the semis will boil down to USA vs. Canada. I will attempt to retain as much impartiality as possible, but should UCLA end up in the finals against either UBC or Ottawa, I will be unable to resist chanting 'BLU-S-A, BLU-S-A!!!'

[Note: The below point spreads are only to be used for recreational purposes. This includes drunken gambling.]

POOL PLAY

Pool A – UCLA/Michigan/UNC/Maryland

UCLA enters the tourney as the overall number one seed for the second year in a row. They also come in as the least-touted 1 seed despite having a season where they finished tied for first in the inaugural National Collegiate Ultimate Series (NCUS). They also won the Stanford Invite, beat UBC three times and ran through the tough Southwest region with few scratches. This team could be like the 2004 Detroit Pistons, a team with the best overall record but was overlooked in favor of the Lakers, the Timberwolves and the Spurs.

In this pool, BLU will be heavily favored over an intriguing set of teams who could easily finish in a three-way tie. Michigan Flywheel has several quality wins this season but they haven’t broken through against any of the title contenders. Making things even more interesting is that they lost to UNC in their only matchup this season. UNC Pleiades are a scrappy squad and they benefit greatly from the coaching tandem of Brian Dobyns and Lindsey Hack. In order for them to advance to bracket play, they will need to find consistent offensive options outside of Kate Scott and Jill Simmerman.

Maryland is the scary team here. They lost to North Carolina early in the season but their two wins over Pittsburgh and two lopsided victories over Northeastern suggest that this is a team to be taken seriously. The knocks against the Helpful Corn are obvious – they lack big tourney experience (one of three teams who didn’t attend any of the big three tourneys), they got rolled by Ottawa and they come from a region that doesn’t get much respect. Look for Charlie Mercer to be one of the breakout stars of the tourney.

Predictions: UCLA wins easily. Maryland surprises both Michigan and North Carolina to take second in the pool. Michigan and North Carolina battle in a very tough game where Flywheel prevails on double game point.

Point Spreads: UCLA v. UNC/Maryland/Michigan (+7/+5/+4), Michigan v. UNC/Maryland (+4/+2), UNC v. Maryland (-2)

Pool B – UBC/Oregon/Carleton/Northeastern

British Columbia could have easily come into the tourney as the number one seed and they appear to be the favorite on scorereport.net. They shouldn’t have too many problems getting a spot directly to the quarterfinals but they will need to be ready against Oregon. In two of the past three years, the number seven seed has upset the two seed (NC State-Iowa in 2005 and Wisconsin-UBC last year). UBC finds itself in a similar situation to last year except they are now on the other end. In 2007, the Wisconsin squad led by Holly Gruenke was one of the favorites, picked by many to face UCLA in the finals. Their crucial loss to UBC created a killer matchup in the quarterfinals against UCLA, and Wisconsin failed to make it to Sunday.

On paper, Oregon is well-equipped to challenge UBC but they are going into this weekend with a couple key losses. They lost two young, athletic defenders to ACL injuries. Consequently, more pressure is going to fall on players like Shannon McDowell and Jessica Huynh to be offensive workhorses and also play shutdown defense on UBC's primary options -- a tough task for anybody. Oregon will need to find a way to rattle UBC's steady offense and ideally increase the pace of the game to a run and gun affair. Whoever wins the pool will likely get the easiest path to the semifinals. Regardless of how Oregon performs this weekend, they can take pride in doing what nobody else could do for the past three years by driving a stake through Stanford’s heart.

Coming into this season, Carleton returned a solid roster, but they haven’t been able to take that step up many assumed they would. They remain very dangerous, but unfortunately for them, they ended up with difficult matchups. In particular, going up against Lou Burruss, the former Syzygy coach, will be a tough hurdle for them. Megan Molteni is the face of the Syzygy squad, but I think Beth Mynar is quite underrated and her play will be critical to Syzygy’s success.

Northeastern looks to reprise the role of last year’s surprise team Northwestern. In the spirit of directionally-named universities, I have heard the rumor that the Claremont Colleges are finally dropping their illusion of being five, distinct campuses and banding together like Voltron under the name Southwestern University.

Prediction: UBC gets a scare from Oregon but takes the pool after blowing by Carleton and Northeastern. Oregon and Carleton start close but Fugue pulls away and wins by 4 or more. Northeastern gives Carleton a tough game but they will end up fourth in the pool.

Point Spreads: UBC v. Carleton/Northeastern/Oregon (+5/+8/+3), Oregon v. Carleton/Northeastern (+4/+6), Carleton v. Northeastern (+3)

Pool C – Washington/Wisconsin/Texas/Michigan State

This pool offers the most excitement this weekend. Washington may have been content to come in second at Regionals, figuring that one of the top seeds was almost guaranteed. Unfortunately, for them, they drew two very difficult teams in pool play, Wisconsin and Texas. Assuming they get through pool play, they have the most difficult draw in the quarters, almost certainly either Ottawa or Santa Barbara. If Element is to win the title, they’ll have done it by taking the most difficult path there. Fortunately for them, they are armed with a lot of depth and they’ll need to sub deep to keep cutters like Shannon O’Malley and Lindsey Wilson as fresh as possible.

Wisconsin has all of the assets needed to upend one of the big four, but they are 0-4 against the top four seeds this year. They have yet to play Washington, though, and they will get at least one more chance to prove that they belong at the top. They may not end up drawing each other in defensive assignments, but the potential for a Georgia Bosscher - Shannon O'Malley matchup is extremely exciting. Not only are they two of the most exciting young players in the nation, they also sport two of the best hairstyles. It will be tantamount to Bob Marley v. Johnny Rotten, Third World v. The Clash, Kingston v. London.

Texas has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team all year. They split their two matchups against Wisconsin and got obliterated by Washington in both meetings. They managed to lose at Sectionals, but then marched through South Regionals with relative ease. Don't be surprised if they take down either Washington or Wisconsin but finish third on point differential.

Michigan State had a dream run to nab the second spot out of the Great Lakes Region, but they are going to struggle in pool play. The divide between the top three and the ladies from East Lansing is the largest disparity in any pool. I hope they make me eat my words.

Prediction: Washington loses to Wisconsin in a nail-biter but crushes Texas. Texas ekes out a win over Wisconsin but they lose out on point differential. Michigan State and their fans will send me hate mail for stating that they will struggle to score six in any of these games.

Point Spreads: Washington vs. Texas/Michigan State/Wisconsin (+5/+10/+3), Wisconsin vs. Texas/Michigan St. (+2/+10), Texas vs. Michigan St. (+9)

Pool D – Ottawa/UCSB/Wake Forest/MIT

The Ottawa-Santa Barbara matchup will be the game to watch in pool play. It will also be the measuring stick to gauge Ottawa and their chances of winning it all. We know that they are for real but how real are they? Detractors of the Metro East will indicate that they have had an easy schedule and haven’t proven themselves like UCLA and UBC. People who’ve read my other articles know that I’ve referenced them as the Anton Chigurhs, but perhaps the more apt comparison for them is the 1999 St. Louis Rams. Anne Mercier isn't exactly Kurt Warner since she was a fairly well known player at the juniors level and as a player for Capitals, so we'll call her Marshall Faulk.

Santa Barbara is peaking at the right time. They have yet to take that next step up this year (1-6 against the top 3 with the sole win coming against UW in the consolation game at the Stanford Invite). That said, the return of Andrea Romano and the presence of Steve Dugan on the sidelines gives them an added dimension that could lead to a similar run to last year.

Lucia Derks and the rest of the Wake Forest squad have had a fantastic breakthrough season. I just can't them coming through against either Ottawa or Santa Barbara. Ruckus' losses to UW and UBC at Centex are telling and I think the results will be comparable.

MIT has had a decent amount of history at Nationals, but that is not going to help them in pool play. If they upset Wake Forest in pool play, that would qualify as one of the biggest upsets of the tourney.

Prediction: Ottawa and UCSB battle for the first 20 points of the game before the non-French Canadians roll five unanswered to win by five. The rest of the pool games will go according to seed and each game will be by sizable margins.

Point Spreads: Ottawa vs. Wake Forest/MIT/UCSB (+8/+12/+3), UCSB vs. Wake Forest/MIT (+5/+10), Wake Forest vs. MIT (+5)

BRACKET PLAY

Pre-Quarters

I won't spend much time analyzing these potential matchups since they are completely speculative.

Oregon vs. Texas - They've met twice before and both times Oregon walked away with the win. Fugue will make it a hat trick with three point win.

Wisconsin vs. Carleton - Hey, here's a novel matchup! Or not. The outcome is also familiar - Bella Donna by 2.

UCSB vs. Michigan - Burning Skirts, Burning Skirts, bring home the wildcard! UCSB by 5.

Maryland vs. Wake Forest - It's the ACC. Len Bias' ghost will take down the Tim Duncans by 2.

Quarterfinals

UCLA vs. Oregon - In a battle of Bears versus Water Fowl, go with the Bears. UCLA by 3.

Ottawa vs. Wisconsin - Heart-stopping game decided by a 50 yard crossfield hammer. Ottawa by 1.

Washington vs. UCSB - Wow, I hope this game happens. I want the Skirts to win to bring home two strength bids, but I'm going with Element by 2.

UBC vs. Maryland - Maryland's dream run ends in decisive fashion. UBC by 8.

Semifinals

UCLA vs. Ottawa - The Vegas finals rematch is a close one. The crowd starts chanting Red, White and BLU on double game point. Though the Miracle on Ice happened before anyone on the field was born (and Canada is not the Soviet Union... yet...), Korb summons the ghost of Herb Brooks and Taz turns into Mike Eruzione. A give-and-go sends BLU into the finals. UCLA by 1.

UBC vs. Washington - This matchup is becoming the Alien vs. Predator of women's ultimate. UBC are clearly the Aliens, mechanical and badass. Washington wears purple and possesses infrared vision. I never saw the movie so I have no idea who wins. I'm going with UBC by 1.

Finals

UCLA vs. UBC IV - This time it's personal. Before a good-sized crowd, BLU emerges onto the fields with new shorts, the same ones Apollo Creed wore in Rocky IV. This is not a good omen because Apollo died in those shorts. Lucky for Team BLU-S-A, Rocky also donned those shorts when he beat Ivan Drago. UCLA by IV.

Best of luck to all the teams this weekend!