Okay, I was obviously smoking some crack when I made my predictions. At the same time, I feel good about some others (like the potential for Pool C to be the most exciting). There were some wild results and I will have more details after the weekend. Right now, I'm exhausted after too little sleep and too much sun, so I'll outline the major highlights.
First of all, I have to say that my heart is breaking for Texas Melee. They are the big story after pool play, for good and bad reasons. They put together two of the most gutsy efforts I have seen all season. Their victory over UW was no fluke and the battle with Wisconsin was the best game of the day. Gina Phillips is the real deal, and though they were eliminated from title contention, I am definitely a believer in her and the Melee squad. They went from being on the verge of winning the pool outright to finishing last in the pool. It's an unbelievable turn of events.
I had suspected that UW would crush Texas, Texas would eke out a win over Wisconsin and Wisconsin would upset UW. As it turns out, all of that happened but I just had the wrong teams. UW crushed Wisconsin, Wisconsin eked out a win over Texas and Texas upset UW. The fascinating thing about the UW win over Wisconsin is that they went into the game needing to win by seven points to win the pool. At the time, everyone had been assuming that there would potentially be a three way tie for first. I also thought there was no way that UW would crush a very good Wisconsin squad. Apologies, Element -- I won't doubt you again.
The X factor in all of this was a much better than expected Michigan State squad. Coached by Dan Tai, they threw a completely different wrinkle in the pool by defeating Texas. They had played both UW and Wisconsin tough, but I honestly never thought that there was a chance of them upsetting Texas. After storming out to a 6-0 lead, Infamous had all the momentum and cruised to a lopsided win over Melee. It can (and almost certainly will) be argued that Melee had nothing in the tank after putting so much in against Bella Donna and Element. However, Michigan State deserves a ton of credit for coming into Nationals with a great attitude and a tough-nosed mentality that proved the naysayers wrong.
Having been one of those naysayers, I will officially apologize and proceed to eat crow. Congrats on a fantastic Friday and best of luck on Saturday. I will proceed to immediately pick against you but cover all of my bases in pathetic fashion by hoping that you upset Carleton.
Another big story is the first loss of the season for the Ottawa ex-Anton Chigurhs. There is no longer the possibility for an all-Canadian finals, so folks north of the border won't have to worry about what pants they were going to wet in the event of an Ottawa-UBC showdown. Ottawa remains a very talented squad capable of taking down anyone. However, they now have a very difficult path to the finals, having to go through a scrappy UNC squad, UW and likely UBC in the semis. Ouch. Their top players are some of the best players in the field, but they are definitely not deep and it showed in their game against Santa Barbara.
Finally, there is still no clear frontrunner for the title. UCLA put all of the Michigan upset talk to rest with a 4 point victory (on a side note, Flywheel looked impressive, especially in their first two games). BLU also looked very vulnerable against both Maryland and UNC. UBC had the most impressive day on paper and look like they are ready for their run to the title. That said, I think UW, UCLA, Ottawa and UCSB match up very well with them. They are susceptible against teams with potent offenses featuring a good amount of height. I think Wisconsin and UW are very talented teams but they proved today that they are also teams that are hard to trust when it comes to crunch time.
I think the team that is flying under the radar right now is Santa Barbara. A common sentiment from people I've spoken with is that they don't seem that impressive in person, but the fact is that they just keep winning. What's also fascinating is that they have changed slowly but surely into a very different team from last year. What was just last year a run-and-gun team with some questionable interpretations on spirited play is now a much more spirited team that values the disc and can move the disc more patiently when it needs to. On top of that, they can still jack the disc with the best of them. The fact remains that they battled a resilient Wake Forest squad and took down the undefeated Ottawa squad. The impact of Andrea Romano and Steve Dugan is very difficult to fully measure, but it's safe to say that it is a huge difference to this squad.
REVISED PICKS (because it's my blog and I can revise if I want to)
Pre-quarters
Carleton vs. Michigan State - Carleton by 4. Infamous, you've earned my respect. Carleton is definitely beatable -- ask Northeastern.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon - Oregon by 1. This is definitely the best of the pre-quarters matchups. Anything could happen in this game. Oregon wins 15-0, Wisconsin wins 15-0, they tie 15-15 and fuse into one mega-team for the quarters. I'd believe it with all that these two teams have gone through.
Ottawa vs. UNC - Ottawa by 6. I didn't give much love to UNC in my pool predictions, and I would love to do so, but unfortunately, they draw a terrible matchup. The Lady Gee Gees will be angry and rested.
Michigan vs. Wake Forest - Michigan by 5. Flywheel moves the disc really well on offense and will shred Ruckus' defense.
Quarters
UCLA vs. Carleton - UCLA by 3. BLU likes to get up by 2 or 3 and hang on to that margin. You think you're close, but you're not.
UCSB vs. Oregon (aka Oregon/Wisconsin/Fugue-a-Donna) - UCSB by 2. Whoever the Skirts play in the quarters will provide a great matchup.
UBC vs. Michigan - UBC by 4. Steph Chow and the Thunderbirds do a great job of making the necessary in-game adjustments. They'll steadily wear down Bodova, Baecher, Griffith and Turley.
UW vs. Ottawa - I say Ottawa by 1, but the line is pick em. This is going to be one hell of a matchup. Unfortunately, the winner of this game is going to be worn down and be easy pickings for UBC.
Semis
UCLA vs. UCSB - UCLA by 1. The rematch of last year's semis goes down to the wire. This time, it ends with a Taz huck to Gizmo.
UBC vs. Ottawa - UBC by 5. Ottawa is worn down and has little left in the tank. UBC picks them apart like the birds of prey that they are.
I think the only truly satisfying matchup to end the year is UCLA vs. UBC. One game to decide it all - the true tiebreaker in the NCUS, the prizes, the Collegiate Ultimate Championship - that would be something to write about.
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