Tier Ye, Tier Ye (aka a quasi-preview of Centex)

Franklin... inspired by... Franklin!!! Double post!

With Centex less than 48 hours away, I think it would be both fun and instructive to look at the national picture by tiers. I'm sure that these tiers will change a bit after the big showdown in Austin.

Having expanded to 32 teams and focused solely on the women's division, this year's Centex reminds me of the great Japanese cult flick Battle Royale. Almost all of the contenders are going to be there (Oregon and Washington are the exceptions), and there has likely never been as good and deep a field of women's teams at one tourney.

TIER OF HEAVEN aka Ready to play on Memorial Day

If I were Vegas (I assure you that I am not; at best, I might be the City of Commerce Casino), I would favor the following teams to be battling on the final day of Nationals:

UC Santa Barbara
Oregon (not at Centex)
Wisconsin

The first two are no-brainers having reached the finals of both President's Day and Stanford Invite. Interestingly, Fugue is not attending Centex so there will be no chance of a third finals meeting (unless St. Louis is actually Oregon in disguise... imagine how awesome it would be if SLU had a dream run to the Centex championship and shocked everyone when they ripped off their masks Mission Impossible-style to reveal that they've been Fugue all along. I'm not sure if Oregon is Edward Norton or Tyler Durden, I have no idea why I picked St. Louis, and I know I'm just muddling everything with the Fight Club and Mission Impossible references. Just run with this.)

Wisconsin reportedly lost to St. Louis at the Midwest Throwdown in a game that was decisively upwind-downwind. Bella Donna also lost to Vanderbilt at Terminus -- no offense to Vandy, but my first reaction to the result was to wonder if Wisconsin was missing some of their players. Centex will be the true test of whether they belong in this tier, but on paper, they are a very strong candidate for the Tier of Heaven.

Each of the above teams have everything that you need to win the big one. Depth? Check. Star players? Check. Big game experience? Check. Knowledgeable coach? Check.

TIERRA DEL FUEGO aka Angry at FJR for not Putting Them in the Tier of Heaven

Ottawa
Stanford
Washington (not at Centex)
Michigan

Each of these teams could move up or down, and again, Centex will be a critical test before the series begins. The one exception, of course, is Washington who opted not to attend the tourney. This is complete speculation but my guess is that it has something to do with Cyle van Auken coaching the team and Element's close ties to Cultimate. It's a bit of a shame, and if Element underperforms at Regionals and/or Nationals, there will be plenty of speculation about whether their decision not to attend Pres Day and especially Centex will have hurt their title chances.

What keeps each of these teams from being in the top tier is each has at least one major question mark. With Ottawa, I think depth remains their Achilles' heel. Also, to my knowledge, they are one of the only top-level teams without a coach. Yeah, it's self-serving to write that coaches make a difference, but I think most people would agree that it is true.

Stanford is a bit like Jennifer Aniston. They are both very attractive and likeable, but they lack that extra something special you're looking for in a big screen star. Superfly has a number of very good players (Cassel, Platt, Founds, Damon), and one of the best systems in the country. I have had difficult time identifying exactly what they are missing; perhaps it is a dominant, crunch-time player (someone like Georgia Bosscher or Cree Howard) who will take over at the end of the game. This can certainly change over the next two months. Plus, there is also that glaring lopsided rivalry with Fugue.

Michigan may be the best candidate to move up. Except for their loss to Wisconsin at Mardi Gras, they have been nothing short of dominant. While they have played a number of decent teams (Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Florida to list a few), they have yet to play against the big dogs (except Wisconsin). Flywheel is arguably deserving of a one seed at Centex, but they get to prove their top-tier worthiness by taking on UCSB in pool play.

TIER-RAN-A-SAUR-US REX aka Intriguing Squads that Could Be Sleepers, Dinosaurs or Dennis Rodman

The teams in this tier are wild cards for different reasons. Each of them could move up or down a tier and a couple are capable of ascending to the very top tier.

British Columbia
UCLA
Cal
USC
Western Washington
Carleton

As I've mentioned in a previous post, UBC didn't have Tory Hislop or Jenny Lo with them at the Stanford Invite. I still think that we have yet to see the real UBC this season. However they do in Austin should be the best measure for what everyone should expect during the series.

UCLA is quite a bit like Stanford as the really good but not flashy team. Consider them the Katherine Heigl of the women's division (I think of Heigl as the younger model of Aniston; apologies to those who are big Heigl and Aniston fans). BLU is stealthily getting better with each tourney and could be one of the surprising teams in Austin (not that UCLA performing well should be considered a surprise).

Cal has the talent to move up but their big issue seems to be their mental game in particular matchups. Though the Pie Queens have the talent and ability to play each team tightly, none of their games against Stanford and UCSB have been particularly close.

As always, it's impossible to be objective about this one, but USC could be a breakout team if they can figure out how to upend a couple of the other big name programs. Consistently good but just short of winning (DGP losses to Oregon, Ottawa, UCLA, UBC, Cal), the Hellions finally broke through with a comeback victory over UBC at Stanford. I also think we figured something out in the process of winning the consolation bracket in Ripon. If we can come through with a couple of key wins in Austin, we could shake up the national picture.

Western Washington resembles USC in many ways. Both have been up-and-comers in tough regions and this year figures to be their breakout season. Whether this team is moving upward or downward is tough to say. Chaos had a very solid showing at Stanford, but they remain in the Northwest, where being number five or six just won't cut it. They are this year's Dennis Rodman, the team that could be great, be disappointing or create complete havoc.

Carleton is Carleton. I don't know this year's squad well enough to determine their breakout potential, but like I said, it's Carleton. They looked uncharacteristically weak at Southerns, and my guess is that their poor performance can be attributed to missing some players.

TIER-EE-YAY ELEISON aka The Darkest of the Light

This tier is crazy big and can likely be subdivided into two or three tiers, but at this point in the season, differentiating these teams is really difficult. I've separated the teams below by region.

What sets this tier apart from the above is that these teams here are almost certainly not going to beat any of the teams in the top two tiers during the series (or even at Centex). Each of these teams are capable of upsetting the teams in the prior tier though.

SOUTHWEST
UC San Diego
Arizona
Colorado

ATLANTIC COAST
North Carolina
UNC Wilmington (not at Centex)
Wake Forest
Florida

NEW ENGLAND
Dartmouth
Northeastern

SOUTH
Texas
St. Louis
Truman State

METRO EAST
Pittsburgh
Maryland

OTHER
Illinois
Wisconsin Eau-Claire
Iowa State (not at Centex)

I have written a decent amount on the Southwest teams (UCSD, Arizona, Colorado), so there's no real need to do so now.

As for the Atlantic Coast teams, if I had to bet on who gets the two bids, I would go with UNC and Wake Forest. When in doubt, go with the ACC (how's that for crack analysis?). If wind factors into the equation at Regionals, Florida, led by Kristen Lamm and Allison Walford, would likely be the biggest beneficiary. If Wilmington's star players can conserve their energy for the key games on Sunday, they will also be very much in the mix. A couple of sleepers in the AC include William and Mary and Elon.

In the New England region, I thought that Northeastern was going to run away with the title (I think that's what I wrote in the upcoming UPA magazine), but Dartmouth is looking strong this spring. Winning Southerns on double game point over Florida, Princess Layout also has quality wins over Iowa State (who won't be at Centex), Truman State, the Mates of State and the 51st State, Canada. Whazzat, you say? Rohre Titcomb of Five Ultimate is one of the star players on this team, and she can certainly add victories over VC and Gaia to her proud accomplishments. Dartmouth and Northeastern will have to fight off challenges from Harvard and Middlebury.

Texas and St. Louis are two of the favorites from the South region and though they have yet to play each other this season, they could potentially meet in a play-in game on Saturday. Michelle Ng did a great write-up of several Midwest teams after the Midwest Throwdown, so instead of rehashing what she wrote, I'll just direct all interested parties to that post. St. Louis will be drawing confidence from their recent Chicago Invite victory, beating Illinois in the finals.

Pittsburgh Danger and Maryland Helpful Corn are likely going to vie with Cornell and Penn State for the second spot out of the Metro East. Charlie Mercer is a difference maker for Maryland, and unfortunately, she was sidelined with injuries for the bulk of last year's College Championships. Having a healthy Mercer is critical for Maryland's hopes to return to the big show. Pitt comes in as a bit of a mystery team to me. They were certainly a solid team last year and notched big wins over Stanford, Wisconsin and UC Santa Barbara at last year's Centex. This year, they took 2nd place at the Queen City Tune Up and eked out close wins over UNC, Florida and Penn State. Their only losses this season have come at the hands of Michigan, but both of their matches were blowouts in favor of Flywheel. They get to prove themselves against three of the perennial powers in the women's division (Stanford, UCLA, UBC), all of whom they faced last year in Austin.

Illinois, UWEC and Iowa State round out the rest of this tier. I wrote about Illinois in my recap of Pres Day, and I'm a bit surprised that they didn't win the Chicago Invite. Being from the frozen tundra, Eau Claire has yet to really compete this season. They lost to Iowa State at High Tide, but that tourney is rarely a good indicator for how a team will perform later in the season. Getting to the play-in game will be an important step for them to assert themselves as a legitimate contender for one of the three Central region bids.

TIER-A-MISU aka It's Like Dessert, You Know... At the End

Claremont
Georgia
Emory
Kansas
Wash U.
Michigan St.

Attesting to the strength of the Centex field are teams like Claremont and Kansas who are seeded 27th and 32nd respectively. The two teams have both won tourneys (Stanford Qualifier and Frostbite) this season. Claremont could make an argument for being in the above tier (one win over Texas), but I see them as a step below UC San Diego, Arizona and Colorado so here they are. Likewise, Georgia and Emory seem to be a decisive step below the top four in the Atlantic Coast.

Of the teams listed in this tier, Wash U. and Michigan State have the best chances of qualifying for Nationals. Wash U. has a win over St. Louis and a DGP loss to Truman State this spring. Michigan State hasn't travelled much this season, but they pulled off one of the biggest upsets last year in Boulder when they beat Texas. Illinois is a good bet to take the second spot out of the Great Lakes region, but Infamous and Case Western should both be in the hunt.

I wish I had more on these teams, and hopefully, I'll get to see some of them in action this weekend. The schedule is pretty tight so odds are against it. In any event, this is going to be a very exciting weekend.