Apologies to those interested parties on the East Coast who are interested in checking out my previews before this weekend. I've been trying to get these things out in timely fashion.
GREAT LAKES (2 bids)
When I started writing this preview, the GL region was going to use the double elimination format but it appears that they have switched to pools. Sigh. I think this actually makes sense for them, but it changes things a bit.
I feel reasonably confident in writing that the fight for the region's two bids is a four-team race. Truthfully, Michigan is a lock for the top spot so it is a three-team race for one spot. Apologies to Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame. I wish you the best at Regionals and would love to see some upsets, but this is the way it is.
The Top Dog (aka Alec Baldwin): Michigan. Flywheel is clearly the best and most accomplished of the GL teams. Like Alec, they seem to get better as time goes by.
The Crazy Bro (aka Stephen Baldwin): Illinois. Menace can look awesome (Stephen in 'The Usual Suspects'), they can be embarrassing (Stephen in 'The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas') and they can be a guilty pleasure (Stephen as himself in 'Celebrity Mole' and 'Celebrity Apprentice'). With respect to the rest of the region, the second bid will be mainly determined by which Stephen Baldwin Menace decides to be this weekend.
The Once (and Future?) Star (aka Billy Baldwin): Northwestern. I think a lot of people forget that Billy Baldwin had eclipsed Alec for just a little while in the early 90s. He was in Backdraft, Flatliners and what turned out to be the turning point in his career, Sliver. This flick was a key vehicle for both Billy and Sharon Stone who was just coming off of Basic Instinct. The film stunk and the verdict on Billy was that he wasn't leading man material (on a side note, it took a couple more films like Casino and sucktastic films like The Specialist and The Quick and the Dead before people realized that Sharon Stone was worthless as a leading lady). Billy has quietly been making a comeback with solid spots in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, the Squid and the Whale and the TV series Dirty Sexy Money.
Like Billy, Northwestern blew up at Nationals two years ago and had a dream run that almost landed them in the semifinals. Well, Gung Ho was forgotten last year and flew under the radar this year until their victory over Illinois at Sectionals. The addition of Laura Moore from Duke makes a big difference for Gung Ho. She carried Duke on her back last year and is capable of doing the same for Northwestern. Luckily, Moore has GL FOTY candidate Lien Hoffman to ease the burden.
The Femme Fatale (aka Kim Basinger) - Case Western. Alright, this doesn't really work because I don't think anyone has a serious shot of upsetting Michigan. I guess the logic I can apply here is who can be the entity that gets between Alec and his brothers? Well, that would be (or used to be) Kim 'How did I get an Oscar for LA Confidential' Basinger? Kim Basinger's best and most fitting role was that of Memo Paris in The Natural. Her character basically rendered the magical Roy Hobbs into an ordinary guy. As soon as Hobbs dumps Memo, he's back to being... well, the Natural.
Isn't this what happened to Alec Baldwin? Check out his list of movies while the two were married (1993-2002). Most of those flicks are duds. When he signed on to be the narrator for the Royal Tenenbaums (a great and underrated vocal performance by Baldwin), it coincided with his troubles with Kim. Now, he's a frickin' stud again. The Aviator, The Departed and 30 Rock. The man has been let loose! Anyway, the point here is that Case Western might be the anti-Baldwin. Beware.
Another reason to like Case Western is that there is always a surprise team at Nationals. Last year, Michigan State and Northeastern snuck up on everyone and did much better than expected in Boulder. The Fighting Gobies, led by seniors Ashley Gan and Elaine Leung, fit this description. CWRU already put a big scare in Illinois at the Chicago Invite and their only other loss came to St. Louis. They will return everyone next year so look for them to be contenders (and possibly the Alec Baldwins) next year as well.
The Troubled One (aka Danny Baldwin): Oregon Men's Ultimate. I just couldn't bring myself to equate any women's team to Danny Baldwin. It's just didn't work. But with all the stuff going on with the Oregon men's team (the drinking violations, the speeding tickets, the inappropriate nudity), I think they fit the bill pretty well. It sounds like the Oregon sports department gave them multiple chances to be on their best behavior. Now, they are making news for all the wrong reasons. FAIL.
Who Goes to Columbus: Michigan, Case Western
Tough Luck Loser: Illinois
My take: I really wanted to pick Illinois here, but I just have a bad feeling. I thought that their tough loss to Michigan State last year would have ensured that they wouldn't be in the same position again, but as much as I admire this team, they just seem to be a classic underperforming team. Plus, Stephen Baldwin has been on a losing streak lately (backing the McCain/Palin ticket and tattooing Hannah Montana's initials on his shoulder... these are bad, bad signs).
I think Michigan will take out CWRU in the semis and Illinois will avenge their sectionals loss to Northwestern in the other half. Illinois will sub tightly against Michigan and play them fairly closely for a half before losing by a decent margin. In the back door, CWRU will squeak out a tough win against Northwestern and then face Menace in the game-to-go. The Fighting Gobies get to hop on the I-71, hang out with the Mennonites for a bit before showing up for their first Nationals.
The New England Regionals preview will come soon.
4 comments:
I liked the write-up, but I'm glad you were wrong. How could you vote against Tania Reitz? Have you seen that face? Those calves?
-Alexis Dettmer
#18 Menace
Trust me, it is tough to go against teams I like. I'm sure that I'll be called stupid for going against Washington and Illinois (congrats to both Element and Menace).
That's the risk I run by not playing it safe. If I had gone with the teams that I had perceived as favorites, I would have picked all seven qualifiers correctly. I still think it's more fun to go bold and pick an upset or two.
Columbus is going to be a blast!
(for alexis) have you seen that ass?!
(for frankie) i had stanford picked up until the very second that i posted my stupid regionals picks. i changed my mind at the very last second and went with ubc. bah! i don't know if you'd know anything about it, but you'd probably know more than me, anyhow: out of curiosity, how did ubc play at regionals?
(J) Have I seen it? Better question: have you touched it? Slept with it? Solid muscle baby.
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