Regionals Preview - The Northwest

I'm rolling out my previews as soon as I finish each one. The Great Lakes and New England will come soon.

NORTHWEST (3 bids)
Oh. My. God.

I love the Southwest (where I am now), and I love the Atlantic Coast (where I come from). The reality is that the Northwest has by far the toughest region with six national-caliber teams and only three bids. I think the Southwest and Atlantic Coast rank two and three in terms of the depth of quality teams (and higher than the NW if you factor in the next tier of teams like Colorado State, Claremont, Emory, Georgia). The other fact is that the Northwest has produced the Champion for several years in a row. This could be the year that changes, but the top two to emerge from the region are good bets to make semis and all three qualifiers will be strong bets to make quarters.

Just as it is difficult to determine who the best of the Northwest teams is, I think it is comparably difficult to decide which of the 'Arrested Development' characters is my favorite. Let's take a look at the parallels.

The Young Star (aka George Michael Bluth) - Oregon. Fugue has been strong in the past, but compared to UBC, UW and Stanford, they seem like the young ones in the region. Of all the cast members, Michael Cera's career has been the hottest since AD. Likewise, Fugue has been the star of the Northwest this year. The question marks for them include their relative inexperience as frontrunners and the long layoff between highly competitive tourneys. Almost two months will have passed since their last official game against a top-tier opponent. Still, with performances like that in Superbad (Pres Day) and Juno (Stanford Invite), I think I've got to go with George Michael (even if it means stepping outside the constraints of a contrived comparison to AD).

The Matriarch (aka Lucille Bluth) - Stanford. Like Lucille, Superfly can seem like a cold, merciless and power-hungry entity that seems to be deeply involved in every facet of the region's affairs. The reality is that the Northwest is like the Bluth Family and there would be no drama and no power in the region without all that Stanford has done. One thing I learned from the show is that you don't mess with Lucille Bluth and walk away without scars. I have questions about Lucille but I'm afraid to go against her. Plus, she is really funny.

The Crazy Liberal Starlet Wannabe (aka Lindsay Bluth Funke) - Washington. Apologies to Boulder, Boston and San Francisco, but Seattle is the center of the Ultimate world and they know it. Like the character played by Mrs. Ellen Degeneres (Portia de Rossi), Element is an attractive team that demands your attention, but beneath the pretty veneer is a certain kookiness that is best reflected in their complicated relationship with the Tobias of the Ultimate world. Who's Tobias? Consider Cu1timate, the attention-craving folks who a lot of people love to make fun of but end up as a major topic of discussion for so many. Tobias may be talked about more, but Lindsay is the much more interesting and fully developed character.

The Wildcard (aka Gob/George Bluth II) - British Columbia. "Illusion, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money." Whether UBC's struggles during the season were illusion or reality, the truth will come out this weekend. Much like Colorado, they have been a bit all over the map. They were very good at Centex and then struggled at Sectionals. Last year, I think a lot of people considered Gob to be their favorite Bluth, but times do change.

The Late (or Never) Bloomer (aka Buster Bluth) - Cal. It's time for the Pie Queens to come out of the Matriarch's shadow. Or womb. Or something less awkward. If Cal can survive their battle with the loose seal (or Lucille), they'll be sporting a hook and that is definitely something to fear.

The Spunky Upstart (aka Maeby Funke) - Western Washington. It's hard to call them an upstart when they have been solid for three years now. Like Maeby, Western Washington hates being in the shadow of the Crazy Liberal Starlet Wannabe and gets furious when people forget about them. The real key for Chaos is to get their cousin Oregon to fall hopelessly in love with them, strike a deal with a studio for a horror film that is based on the Matriarch and hopefully not cross paths with the Starlet after pool play.

Who Goes to Columbus: Oregon, Stanford, UBC

Tough Luck Loser: Washington

My take: The funny thing is that pool play really doesn't matter much here. No offense to seeds 7-16, but only the top 6 have a shot at Nationals. Whitman and Santa Cruz could pose challenges and upset one of the top six, but they simply don't have enough to go the distance.

The top eight teams are so obviously ahead of the rest of the region that the crossovers will just serve as perfunctory warmups to Sunday. That said, the one truly important thing that will come out of Saturday's play is something that is mostly beyond a team's control -- the quarterfinals matchups. Given that there are so many different possibilities in terms of who matches up with whom in the quarters, it is really difficult to predict out who has a leg up on Sunday.

Oregon will face either Santa Cruz or UBC/Cal in the quarters. Stanford will face either Whitman or Western Washington/Washington. Those are some huge differences. The top two seeds could lose their crossover games and actually benefit by drawing a better matchup depending on how the other crossover goes. Wacky.

Whoever draws Whitman and Santa Cruz in the quarters will benefit immensely. For whoever ends up in the B1 v. D1 matchup (almost certainly Stanford and a coin flip between UBC/Cal), I would pay attention to the other crossover and seriously consider tanking the game if it means getting the matchup with Whitman in the quarters. Unfortunately, the potential Oregon/Washington matchup would likely be a tight game that would be tough to call until the very end.

Some people will think my strategy is stupid and you should look to win every game. I'm not advocating actively looking to lose. I'm just saying that if the right circumstances arise, you have to go for the best matchup on Sunday, especially when you consider the smallest elements might make the difference between 3rd and 4th.

The four teams that get to the semifinals have a big advantage over the two other teams who don't. That's just a fact. I think Oregon and Stanford are deep enough that they can get by in any scenario. The other four teams need to seriously examine how to keep their top line as fresh as possible. I would be willing to be a lot of money that the team that wins the 3rd place game will be the one whose playmakers are fresher partially by virtue of a more favorable path to that game. As Tory Hislop, Cree Howard, Alyssa Weatherford and Shannon O'Malley go, so go their teams. Certainly, there are other great players on these teams, but each of these four players are the engines for their teams' offense. You take them out of the picture and you severely cripple their teams.

So my predictions... I can't believe I'm going against Washington, but honestly I'd say that about whomever would be the last team out. I think Cal and Western Washington are a step below the other four so it basically comes down to which of the top four is most vulnerable after a series of tough games. UBC is wacky unpredictable but I'm betting they'll do whatever it takes, including tanking the right games, in order to keep Tory and Candice fresh. Plus, you can't underestimate the defending champion thing.

I think Element will run hard in every game. If Shannon O'Malley and Lindsey Wilson are tired in the big game, that's trouble. For all I know, they'll just win the tourney and render my predictions useless. The more I think about this debate, the more confused I get and the more I just want to go back to my Arrested Development DVDs and just enjoy the show.