Regionals Previews

I really love this time of year. I think the anticipation before Regionals is much greater than that before Nationals. I liken it to the NCAA basketball tourney where the buildup to the Final Four is considerably more exciting than the Final Four tourney itself.

SOUTHWEST (4 bids)
Even with four bids, nothing is guaranteed in this region.

Frontrunner (aka Tiger Woods on Sunday when leading): Okay, I retract. UCSB is a lock.

Virtual Lock (aka the Lakers chances of making the NBA finals): UCLA. BLU would have to fall apart in order to not qualify.

Strong Bet (aka UNC winning the NCAA tourney): USC. Hellions love.

The Next Contenders: Colorado and UC San Diego could end up in a rematch of 2007 Regionals which resulted in a double game point win for UCSD. The two squads are 1-1 against each other with UCSD victorious at Pres Day and Colorado winning at Centex. The potential rubber match is an exciting one.

The X-Factor: The weather in Denver is definitely a wildcard and both days are projected to be windy.

Who goes to Columbus: UCSB, UCLA, USC and Colorado (not in that order).

Tough luck loser: UC San Diego.

My take: Colorado is the most unpredictable team at Regionals. They beat UCLA at Centex and they are capable of being very good. I don't think they have the depth to win the tourney, but they are definitely capable of winning their pool and upsetting UCLA in the crossover. They are also capable of losing to Colorado State as evidenced at Sectionals. I still think that they will get it together and return to Nationals for the first time since they lost in the semifinals in 2006.

Arizona would have muddled the picture even more as they were 2-0 against UCSD and 1-0 versus Kali. Unfortunately, they took themselves out of the race by failing to turn in their paperwork on time.

Claremont and Colorado State both have outside chances of taking the fourth bid. I haven't seen Colorado State play this year, but I suspect that they need to adopt the same strategy as Claremont. The Greenshirts need to pick and choose their high intensity games and keep their key players as fresh as possible to go as deep as possible. These two squads and Long Beach are more likely to be spoilers than they are to be Nationals bound, and all of the top contenders will have to take these teams seriously.

ATLANTIC COAST (2 bids)
The Frontrunner (aka Rock): UNC-Wilmington. Honestly, the difference between the three Carolina teams is tiny, but Seaweed does have a 3-0 record vs. UNC and split their two matchups with Wake Forest. Always go with rock.

Best Bets for the Second Bid (aka Paper and Scissors): Wake Forest and UNC. Pleiades is 2-0 against Ruckus which bodes well for Chapel Hill in their potential matchup in the semifinals.

The Best of the Rest (aka Dynamite): Florida. When I was a kid, we used to play with dynamite as a special throw. Yeah, it was stupid. If FUEL can catch fire, they could take down any of the Carolina teams. I like their potential matchup against Wilmington. They suffered a surprising loss to Georgia at Sectionals, but I think they are the biggest threat to the big three from Carolina.

The Spoilers (aka Matchsticks): Georgia, William and Mary and Virginia. If these teams catch fire, they could end one of the previous four teams' national ambitions. I think each of them is unlikely to run the table to win the backdoor bracket, but they are dangerous squads for the primary contenders.

Who Goes to Columbus: UNC-Wilmington and UNC.

Tough luck loser: Florida.

Who I'm rooting for: William and Mary. My wife was and will always be a Mother Hucker.

My Take: The Atlantic Coast is the most compelling Regional to watch outside of the Northwest. The AC deserves to have three teams in Columbus but alas, they have only two spots. USC got to play all three of the Carolina teams this year, and each is stylistically different. Wilmington wants to bomb the disc and attack vertically while UNC has more of a balance of the deep game and possession offense. I can't really speak on Wake Forest because our game against them was in heavy wind, but last year at Nationals, Ruckus tended to run their offense through one or two players and everyone else centered on getting the disc back to them, especially Lucia Derks.

CENTRAL (3 bids)
The Frontrunner (aka The Moon Landing Happened): Wisconsin. I mean, there's a chance that the Moon Landing was fake... actually, no, there isn't.

The Virtual Lock (aka Crop Circles are a Hoax): Carleton. I can see Syzygy faltering in one game, but not two. It's also possible that aliens were responsible for crop circles, but again, not really.

The Next Contenders (aka All That Da Vinci Code Stuff Has Merit): Iowa State and Wisconsin Eau-Claire. I haven't seen Iowa State play this year. Come to think of it, I've never seen them play but never underestimate the power of a team named Woman Scorned. Scary. One of these two teams will be going to Columbus but there is much more uncertainty about which one. Consider Iowa State the stuff about Da Vinci hiding stuff in paintings and Eau-Claire the stuff about the Priori of Sion and Mary Magdalene as wife.

Who goes to Columbus: Wisconsin, Carleton, Iowa State

Tough luck loser: Wisconsin Eau-Claire

My take: Wisconsin is very strong but as their losses to St. Louis indicate, they are definitely beatable, especially by a team that values the disc really well. I think Carleton can be this kind of team, and as longtime regional rivals, they certainly won't be fazed by Bella Donna. I'm going to be boring and predict that the region goes Wisconsin, Carleton and Iowa State.

I think the drop off between the top four and the rest is really big and all three bids plus the game-to-go loser should could from this bunch.

METRO EAST (2 bids)
Allow me to dork out with some X-Men references. Yup. My dork factor just shot up several points. I'm okay with that.

The Frontrunner (aka I'm the Juggernaut, Bitch): Ottawa. I think the easiest bets for qualifying for Nationals are Ottawa, UCSB, Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Gauntlet (aka the Brood): The separation between Maryland, UPenn, Pitt, Penn State and Cornell is very small. If you look at their matchups against each other, you will see a lot of games decided by one point.

The Spoilers (aka the Morlocks): NYU, Georgetown and Delaware. I have the feeling that one of these squads will pick off one of the top six seeds in the backdoor.

Who Goes to Columbus: Ottawa and Maryland. Man, I'm boring.

My take: I think Maryland benefits greatly from being the overall 2 seed. They will likely get a bit of an edge on the rest of the field since they should be able to get through pool play much more easily than their counterparts in the C and D pools. The 3-6 seeds play each other and the pool winners have an immense edge going into bracket play. I think the foursome of Pitt, UPenn, Penn State and Cornell have to treat pool play as a must win situation. If last year's ME Regionals are any indication, nobody has the depth to play two extra games and still have enough to win the backdoor game.

SOUTH (2 bids)
Last year, I dorked out and compared the South Regional to Highlander. This year, I'll do a complete 180 and do a comparison with my favorite Woody Allen movies.

The Frontrunners (aka Annie Hall and Manhattan) - St. Louis and Texas. Just as the conventional wisdom is to go with St. Louis this year, Annie Hall is regarded as Woody's greatest picture. What's wonderful about Annie Hall is that there's an adorable awkwardness to the film and it was very unconventional for the time. Sounds like SLU to me. You can pick apart the individual components but the whole package is there and you can't argue with their results.

On the flip side, you've got Texas aka Manhattan. This classic B&W flick is my personal favorite Woody Allen film, and I think it is one of the most perfect films ever made. That's a lot for Texas to live up to, but I fell in love with Melee at last year's Nationals. Just as my intellect tells me that there may technically be better Woody Allen movies, I keep coming back to Manhattan. The same is true for Texas -- I can't go against them until someone knocks them off. [One glaring difference from the brilliant aesthetics of Manhattan is Melee's new Five-Ultimate jerseys. I don't know when I became obsessed with fashion, and I'm certainly in danger of alienating more folks with my fashion sense, but wow, those are some interesting looking threads. They definitely fall below BLU level.]

The Challengers (aka Hannah and Her Sisters and Crimes and Misdemeanors)- Washington University and Truman St. After Woody Allen tapered off a bit in the early 80s, he came roaring back with these two amazing films in the second half of the decade. Hannah and Her Sisters is a warm, sensitive film that heavily featured my favorite e.e. cummings poem. When I think of Wash U., I think of my friend from college who did her graduate work there in poetry. Ch-ching! Connection is made.

Crimes and Misdemeanors may be the most complex and challenging film in Woody Allen's oeuvre. I know quite a few people who think that this flick trumps the big films of the 70s. Likewise, Truman State isn't a popular choice to take one of the bids, but they are a familiar name and nobody would leave them completely out of the discussion.

The New Blood (aka Match Point or Vicky Cristina Barcelona, take your pick) - Vanderbilt. Alright, Woody has fallen off quite a bit as he got through the 90s and into the new millennium. These two flicks demonstrated that he's still got a lot to offer. Perhaps not so coincidentally, these two films feature Scarlett Johansson. Perhaps Vanderbilt should consider themselves Scarlett. I think they'd take that. They are the exciting new team on the scene and believe that they have the stuff to get to the top of the region.

Who will win: St. Louis and Texas

Tough luck loser: Washington U.

My take: I was excited to see Woody Allen come back with a couple good films recently, and I do have a soft spot for his 80s flicks. I also have a special place in my heart for the early slapstick films like Sleeper. In the end, I always go back to Annie Hall and Manhattan. St. Louis and Texas, you're like the eggs.

Best of luck to all teams (except those in USC's path)!