The College Championships - Before the Storm

Here are a few final thoughts on the Callahan before I take a look at the big tourney. I meant to offer a hypothetical ballot and write a few more words of praise for the other top candidates. If I could vote, here's how my ballot would look:

1. Andrea Romano (UCSB)
2. Anne Mercier (Ottawa)
3. Georgia Bosscher (Wisconsin)
4. Emily Baecher (Michigan)
x. Anne 'Bambi' Ohliger (USC) - somewhere between 1 and 5

I forgot who it was that was describing the raw power of Mercier, and it made me think about Lebron James. I think the comparison is fair in terms of the type of player they are for their sport. Mercier brings a size and strength that you rarely see in women's Ultimate. Mercier can handle the disc, control the middle of the field and take players deep in a similar fashion to the way that Lebron can run the point, post up players (starting to) and take the ball to the rack.

This also got me thinking about other NBA comparisons for the top candidates (yes, I know it's patently absurd to compare players across sports, but it's also ridiculously fun to think about). I decided that Dre is Tim Duncan circa his MVP years. As the quiet big man, he wasn't particularly flashy but almost everyone would agree that he was unquestionably the best player in the league at the time. His team just won and he was the primary cog of that team.

I think Georgia is a hybrid of the young Vince Carter (when the sky was the limit) and Kevin Garnett. Both Vince and KG were freakishly athletic and at least in KG's case, he has always been an intense defensive player. I think a small forward would be a more appropriate comparison but the only person that I could think of was Scottie Pippen, who was an outstanding all-around player but was overshadowed by MJ and didn't have the charisma of a superstar. There's no doubt that Georgia is the star of Bella Donna and is very charismatic.

Emily Baecher is a combination of Chauncey Billups and John Stockton. She runs the offense with the same kind of poise and isn't always the flashiest player. She'll generate offense when needed but her biggest contribution is in her ability to make everyone else on the field better.

Anne Ohliger is a lot like Ray Allen (or Reggie Miller if you think Miller is better). Like Ray Allen, Bambi is someone you appreciate more and more when you see her in action. When both are at the top of their games, they are impossible to cover and run all over the court/field. Especially in his youth, Allen's game has been about mixing it up between driving the lane and getting free on set screens to spot up for the three. Bambi similarly switches between acting like a third handler/mid-cutter and running deep for the big huck.

Well, that's enough Callahan talk. We're done with the appetizers. Give me the frickin' steak (writes the pescetarian).

NATIONALS!!! ER, I MEAN THE UPA COLLEGE CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!
I meant to post this shortly after pools came out, but there weren't any real surprises in the seedings and they conform pretty close to what I had expected.

Wisconsin and Ottawa swapped spots which is certainly reasonable. I personally liked Ottawa over Wisconsin because of the Centex win, but this does prevent the intra-regional matchup between Bella Donna and Iowa State (who was a virtual lock at 16). Granted this means Ottawa and UPenn are in the same pool, but they haven't seen each other this season.

UNC ended up at 9 over Colorado and UCLA. Of all the variations between the UPA's seedings and mine, I find this one the most puzzling. If pools A and D hold seed (very strong possibility here), UNC and UNC-Wilmington will be meeting up for the fifth time this season in the pre-quarters. This seems like a mistake to me, especially since this could have been easily avoided by swapping Colorado and UNC.

The next variation occurred with Wash U. and St. Louis getting seeded ahead of USC. I thought we had the more impressive season overall, but I think St. Louis' two wins over Wisconsin in addition to beating us at Centex gave the two South teams a bump ahead of USC. I completely understand that and have no problems with the 15 seed. I was very confident that we would end up at either 13 or 15.

The final variation was putting Illinois over the two New England teams. This seemed a little odd to me because the same logic that bumped the two South teams above us should have been applied to Illinois and the New England teams. Dartmouth beat Illinois at Centex, but like the Hellions, Menace had the tougher strength of schedule. Perhaps I'm missing some other consideration here, but if we're at 15, Menace at 19 makes a lot more sense. Granted, we've played them twice already and it will be a lot of fun playing Dartmouth who we have never seen before.

Alright, that's enough discussion about the hypotheticals. Let's go to the pools.

POOL A - UC Santa Barbara, UNC-Wilmington, Carleton, Washington U., Illinois
I think Pool D is the most likely to go according to seed, but Pool A is a pretty close second. The Burning Skirts should easily win this pool. The only major stumbling block for them is facing Wilmington in their first game. As long as they are focused and ready to play, I think they will win every pool game by four points or more.

Carleton and Wash U. match up against each other immediately and a spot in the pre-quarters is likely at stake. Illinois is a dangerous five seed and have the athleticism to upset both Carleton and Wash U. Though Syzygy demolished Menace at Pres Day (13-1), that game took place in horrible conditions that played to Carleton's strengths and exposed Illinois' weaknesses. I expect the rematch to be considerably closer.

Predictions: UCSB, Carleton, Wilmington, Wash U., Illinois. It's no fun picking pools to simply go to seed. I'll go with Syzygy besting Wilmington after Carleton figures out how to create a microclimate that produces slush and sub-freezing temperatures. Yes, in order to do this, Carleton will likely have to summon the awful Mr. Freeze and brush dangerously close to the failure that is Batman and Robin, but great reward only comes with great risk. Or is that great power and great responsibility? Or great gatsby and great expectations? All these adages are so confusing.

POOL B - Washington, Michigan, UCLA, Saint Louis, Northeastern
I really love this pool. The Washington v. Michigan matchup should be a lot of fun to watch. Expect the game to look like a bombing range featuring Shannon 'the Howitzer' O'Malley and the 'B-23 Bomber' Emily Baecher. I just hope that Element doesn't sport the all-purple uniforms. It gives me a craving for a Happy Meal and those prelapsarian days when I ate mounds of Chicken McNuggets before a few rounds of shock therapy convinced me to become a vegetarian.

UCLA is well-suited to knock off Michigan. They haven't faced each other since UCLA beat them last year, and Flywheel will be eager to exact revenge. Coach Korb has been reportedly watching game footage on Michigan and found some weaknesses in the Flywheel machinery. Design flaws in a Michigan product? Crazy talk, FJR, crazy talk. (Just teasing, Flywheel. More cowbell, please).

I'm excited to see how SLU does against the top three seeds in their pool. I was a bit surprised to see them lose to Wash U. twice after doing so well at Centex. If they can recapture the magic they had in Austin, they will shock one of the top three.

Northeastern looks to be a dangerous five seed now that they are looking more like the team that was hyped in the preseason. They had a great run to 9th place last year in Boulder and having both Courtney Moores and Stephanie Barker healthy is critical for their chances of creating an upset.

Winning this pool is key because finishing 2nd or 3rd presents a potentially very challenging prequarters matchup. Also, the pool winner gets arguably the easiest quarterfinals matchup.

Predictions: Washington, Michigan, UCLA, St. Louis and Northeastern. That's some radical thinking there, FJR. The final standings aren't very exciting, but the way it is produced will be. St. Louis shocks Michigan but loses to UCLA. Going into day two, Element is 2-0, BLU is 2-0, SLU is 1-1, Michigan is 0-2 and Northeastern is 0-2. On day two, Element wins the pool with two close wins over UCLA and St. Louis. Northeastern severely damages St. Louis hopes of advancing to the pre-quarters by beating them in a nailbiter. Michigan needs to beat BLU to advance and does so by winning on double game point.

POOL C - Wisconsin, Oregon, Colorado, USC, Dartmouth
Welcome to the pool of death. Maybe that's self-serving to write since we're in the pool, but anyone who has followed the women's season will likely agree. Both Oregon and Wisconsin are among the handful of teams that have a good shot of winning it all. They will be facing each other for the first time since last year's pre-quarters where Bella Donna triumphed in a comeback win. One of the scheduling quirks is that Oregon will have played a game before this matchup while Bella Donna will be opening up their 2009 Nationals run with this game. I don't think this should really affect either team much, but it will be interesting to see if Wisconsin starts out of the gate well.

Oddly, Colorado and Southern California were both placed into the same pool, and I think both are underrated coming into the tourney. While it's likely that the matchup between the two will decide who advances to the pre-quarters, I really like the chances of one (or both) of these teams upsetting Wisconsin or Oregon. This pool has the makings of last year's Pool C where Texas upset Washington and nearly took out Wisconsin.

Dartmouth also has the look of an underrated team. The New England region is much maligned and has been seeded last in their pools for four straight years. In 2006 and 2008, one of the NE teams far exceeded expectations and finished considerably higher than their seed (Dartmouth was the 15 seed in 2006 and reached the quarterfinals; last year, Northeastern was the 14 seed and finished tied for 9th).

Predictions: There will be upsets. I was going to offer more specific predictions (no, I wasn't) but when I was staring into my crystal ball, all I saw was the haze of the blue, orange, green, red and yellow circles lingering from trying to beat Through the Fire and Flames on expert. Okay, I'm lying. I'm not that good at Guitar Hero. I'm still stuck on getting through Raining Blood. Stupid Slayer.

POOL D - Ottawa, Stanford, North Carolina, Iowa State, UPenn
Pool D is a very strong bet to go according to seed despite the close seeding among Ottawa (4), Stanford (5) and UNC (9). A number of people I've spoken with immediately thought that Ottawa was the biggest beneficiary in the UPA's new format and schedule for Nationals. I completely agree. They were lethal before. Now, they are crazygonuts lethal.

I think Superfly will have a tough time handling the power game offered by the Lady Gee Gees. It seems like a bad matchup for Stanford on paper, but Superfly has been remarkable at proving me completely wrong, so it shouldn't be a shock if Stanford reprises UCSB's role last year in the five seed upsetting the four seed.

Likewise, I think UNC matches up badly with Stanford. The two teams have a number of similarities but Stanford's roster is much deeper with skilled, athletic players. Pleiades should be motivated a little extra by their desire to avoid yet another matchup against UNC-Wilmington; meeting in the pre-quarters would be their 5th meeting of the season and UNC is currently 0-4 against Seaweed. You know the saying... the fifth time is the charm unless you are USC playing UCLA in which case the number might be four as long as the coach doesn't screw things up by writing stupid things on his blog... hey, look at the giant talking robot across the street!

Iowa State is probably the team I know the least about. Melissa Gibbs and Jasmine Draper are the two stars of the team. I think their best chance of moving on to the pre-quarters is getting into an up-and-down huck game against UNC. Give the fans what they want. Huck or die. Huck or die.

UPenn returns to the big show but I think they are going to be overmatched in all of these games. They simply haven't seen enough competition against top-tier teams this season. That said, look for them to upset teams in Sunday's placement games. As they proved during the Metro East Regionals, once they get used to the competition and gain the necessary confidence, they can take down quality teams (Maryland is definitely underrated outside of their region).

Predictions: Ottawa, Stanford, North Carolina, Iowa State, UPenn. Yes, this is a boring way to close out the preview. Yes, my logorrhea has limits. And yes, I need to pack.

I'm planning to write a couple quick posts while I'm in Columbus. If I'm highly motivated, I'll do the Twitter thing (twitter.com/fjrhox).

And now for the show!